I would like to hear your thoughts on Hudson Bay (I bought some shares today). HBC.TO in Canada, HBAYF in the US.

Obviously B&M retail isn't doing too great and investors hate that sector right now.

Hudson's Bay owns a lot of real estate which might on its own be worth way more than the Mkt Cap.

They have an earnings call early April, but we already know that Q4 2016 wasn't that great so hopefully this is priced in already.

They're investing into automated warehouses to prop up their online sales. I did personally make an order last year and somehow it got lost in their system and they had to redo the order on the phone a week later and give me a discount. So they could improve on that side.

Seems like they have a growth strategy with acquisitions. Their revenue has increased a lot from year to year, but earnings are (hopefully) lagging behind a bit as it takes time to optimize. They had a major expansion into Europe mid 2015 and this naturally has a negative effect on recent income statements; until they can reduce costs in this new venture.

Thoughts?

FWIW, a lot of real estate companies are trading at a discount to their net asset value right now. I don't know much about automated warehouses though.

Thanks, that's a very good point, given that a good chunk of the presumed value is in the real estate.

Price to book value of some heavily discounted canadian real estate companies:

MEQ: 0.55
MRT-UN: 0.61
MRD.TO:0.54

Then Hudson's bay is at 0.69.

(can't edit the previous post)

I have to add that looking at top retail REITs in Canada (http://www.dividendearner.com/best-canadian-reits/) , their price to book ratio is higher than 1:

REI-UN.TO 1.07
SRU-UN.TO 1.33
CRT-UN.TO 2.87
CHP-UN.TO 10.05

See Sears.

To those of you on the NTS.V train, dilution today. Pretty happy with how the market has responded though.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/na...202408242.html

I got the impression after the last call that a) timing of China rev was a big question mark but don't expect much in the next few quarters and b) even considering (a), they didn't expect to have to do a capital raise this year based on current burn rate bc of the new dev contract. Is this off?

Seems kind of random to do this raise now to take out the notes unless something around their cash flow/burn rate changed. Too optimistic to think this might be in response to a new project? Also unrelated but have they mentioned having trouble raising debt bc of confi issues around their projects? /have they said how much they can share non-publicly with lenders?

I wrote the rep, we'll see what he says, maybe Ahnuld chimes in too. But in the end it pinned the offering price of $1.15. Guess it'll be volatile till they speak up. I probably won't average down till much lower.

I really do think they need healthy capital to meet their demand, in which case this could be a pretty quick good story. Their last guidance gave no reason to expect the opposite. We do know that without China they were almost out of actual cash. The only thing I wish is that they had taken the advice a while back when the southern dude told them to raise more rather than less. Sure enough he was right.

There's a line they sneak in the press release that's super interesting:

increasing and improving image mastering size and detail and potential technology partnerships


They don't do that unless someone asked. There's a reason that's being done. I gotta ask the rep or someone. That's a bit of a tell.

thanks.

i had thought they said the new dev contract meant they prob wouldnt need to do a capital raise, but i could be wrong

seems possible that language in the release could just be referring to the most recent dev contract, but yeah on the whole i think this raise/release makes it more likely theres something tangible in the pipeline

Heard back from the rep. Anyone who wants me to forward what he said, just pm me. All looks good to me. Also sounds like they have no choice but to hire to meet demand, so they went for it.

I also think the increased liquidity is good. Apparently institutional money starting to take notice too.

Never owned a company that has had a bought deal financing. From a market price perspective, what's the typical outcome of bought deal? When the dilution happened, i guess it was a sure thing that market price would wen't down (as it did), but how is the deal going to affect the market price in the future?

Anyone from valuetown looking at AMD soon? Sure caught my attention today.

Haven't paid much attention to TWLO before, but could this bloodbath be the time to buy? (Not today, but after a week or so when the selloff ends?)

I think a lot of the value guys would argue there's zero value in TWLO. That said I guess the same argument could be made for AMD too and I brought it up.

Thoughts on BBW? Anybody looked into it?

Used to be pure retail, now they are investing heavily into IT and ecommerce. Doesn't own real estate but leases all locations. Very few stores not profitable. SG&A costs have been going down. That said, sales have been declining and profits haven't been consistent.

I really like the concept of the concourse stores that are cheaper to build, run and have shorter leases (also movable!). Also, according to the ceo those generate around 50% of the revenues of 5x more expensive stores. The stock recently jumped up from below 9$ to over 11$, is there still room to move?

There were some rumours late last year about a buy-out but seems like that's not happening any time soon now. Almost all shares are owned by institutions, some short interest but that's been declining already before the latest sprint up in price.

I know very little about AMD, however they have pretty bad financials. There are better options out there for a long term buy and hold IMO.

Curious how you guys know when to sell. And do you ever feel remorse if you sell too early. Sitting on a decent investment that is peaking and I'm afraid if I sell I'll be upset if a year from now I could have made even more.

Stocks or something else?

It's something else, but obviously there's a market. Just curious how you guys deal with selling something too early.

Whisky.

Hehe.. not bad

Seriously, I usually have a exit strategy already planned when doing a investment. I stick to it and if I get seller remorse, I study my exit criterias to see if I missed something.

Easy poker analogy... If you fold a low pocket pair PF and you see you would have hit a set and would have stacked someone, do you feel bad for folding?

You can't worry about it, but you do need to look back and evaluate whether you are making good selling decisions or poor ones. My worst investment choices have been selling stocks---NFLX, ISRG, NVDA and EXEL. So I'm selling less often now and focusing on selling poorly performing stocks vs selling winners... I'm also making smaller bets on stocks so that if something goes to zero, it doesn't matter & none of my holdings are so large that they keep me up at night. If SHOP doubles again, it might. It seems to be working at the moment, but the stock market has just had one of the best years ever so it is hard to say if LTB&H is working or if I got lucky.

Cut half of my RAIL position for 5% gain and letting the rest run, long FBRC.

Current longs (based on size):
AGO, SLP, RAIL, RAD, ODP, NXPI, FBRC, NVTR, FELP