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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

02-03-2017 , 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
i bought back in today. it's trading at pretty cheap multiples. and who knows, maybe liberals will be inspired to start buying guns too.
I like RGR in this range as well for those interested in this play. Slightly higher multiple, but added benefit of a pretty decent dividend.
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02-03-2017 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Any value radars going off with UAA? What a plunge.
Before going all in on UAA there's a few good write ups that explain how NKE and Adidas are stealing market share back. Consumer preference may be shifting and if UAA can't grow at the same or higher rates the stock starts to look fairly expensive from a fundamentals perspective.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...inc-stock.aspx
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02-03-2017 , 10:37 AM
Thanks for the UAA info.
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02-03-2017 , 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by BCI23
you guys have any names you like under $75m market cap at current prices? Lots of names have been running up on me.
Jones Soda (JSDA) $20 mil market cap. Not sure why they've always underperformed. Seems they could do better. I live in the southeast and they have product in the high end grocery store Harris Teeter and 7 eleven.
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02-04-2017 , 07:35 PM
Thoughts on Seadrill limited (SDRL) down here at $1.85?

Also, not deep value, but Ralph Lauren?
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02-08-2017 , 04:05 PM
Is anyone a member of microcap club? worth it?

https://microcapclub.com/
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02-08-2017 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa
Is anyone a member of microcap club? worth it?

https://microcapclub.com/
I'm on there, its a good site. Lots of full time investors on there and lots of guys doing good research on companies that isn't available anywhere else. Only problem for me is most of the guys are deep diving on companies i have little interest in, more speculative/VC types looking for the next Netflix 20 bagger in a year hyper growth type plays and willing to pay high valuations that I'm just not willing to pay.
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02-09-2017 , 07:21 PM
Would German energy stocks be a good long play?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmou.../#1b4842f2bebd
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02-09-2017 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Jones Soda (JSDA) $20 mil market cap. Not sure why they've always underperformed. Seems they could do better. I live in the southeast and they have product in the high end grocery store Harris Teeter and 7 eleven.
There are soda taxes in a few places. Some school districts are banning soda machines. Definitely not a growth sector.
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02-11-2017 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItalianFX
The other day I heard this quote from Whitney Tilson, "The most important part of good investing is the ability to understand how to value a company and recognizing when market inefficiency is creating opportunity. Once those skills are in place, what differentiates the good investors from the great is controlling emotion."
Tilson must not have been controlling his emotion recently. Or his valuation system is broken.

2010
Tilson 10.5%
SPY 15.1%

2011
Tilson -24.9%
SPY 1.9%

2012
Tilson -1.7%
SPY 16.0%

2013
Tilson 16.6%
SPY 32.3%

2014
Tilson 13.7%
SPY 13.5%

2015
Tilson -7.3%
SPY 1.3%

Profits on $10K investment on 1/1/2010, as of 12/31/15:

Tilson $25
SPY $10,695

I haven't seen his results for 2016 but he was last seen selling into the Trump rally.

I notice that his "Value Investing Congress" website is shut down.
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02-11-2017 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors
Would German energy stocks be a good long play?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmou.../#1b4842f2bebd
why would they be, just judging from the article? looks like they are in a bad spot and it doesn't seem like that will change.
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02-11-2017 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
why would they be, just judging from the article? looks like they are in a bad spot and it doesn't seem like that will change.
They are down 80%. Demand is unlikely to decrease. Can't get any worse so low risk? And if the German government changes policies, there is upside to at least where they were before, which would be 5x value.
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02-12-2017 , 12:02 PM
german government changing policies on nuclear energy is highly unlikely, i'd give it <5%. there's a big concensus between political parties and about 4/5 of the population are opposed to nuclear energy. anyone trying to sell a pro nuclear position in the upcoming election would significantly harm their campaign.
merkel increased the supposed lifetime of the plants in 2010 but then made a 180 turn after the fukushima disaster. half of the plants have been inactive ever since and the other half is supposed to shut down before 2023. yet, germany is a net exporter of electricity.
renewables are already making up about 1/3 of german energy and their share is increasing year over year.
of course renewables have cost consumers, investors and taxpayers a lot of money and they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
yet, energy is not really a big topic in the upcoming election. it is very unlikely that there will be a shift in energy policy that will profit the majors.

Last edited by BooLoo; 02-12-2017 at 12:11 PM.
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02-12-2017 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip
Re: Nuvectra. There's some good stuff on CoBF about Algovita, their SCS device. There's also a brief overview of the partnership with Aleva for DBS (Aleva's innovation is directional DBS stimulation).

Interestingly, they recently filed for FDA/CE approval for their SNS device. And, they've also filed alot of the patents pertaining to that device in the past few months. Big breakthroughs here, too - they managed to decouple the need for a 1:1 channel/conductor:electrode contact relationship. So, the competitor has X amount of conductors, and X amount of electrode contacts. NVTR introduced a relay such that they can have X amount of conductors and X*Y amount of electrode contacts - in short, they've developed a mesh electrode array with a 10x10 electrode contact configuration or 16x16. So, 100-256 contact points rather than 24 or whatever the competitor is. And all 100-256 of those contacts are on/around the sacral nerve. So, as the stim program loses efficacy over time (which happens with SNS - habituation or something like that), the patient can alter which of the 100-256 electrodes are activated, and can re-target the stim to an area that provides effective relief. the best part is that they've developed a way to allow the patient to reprogram which electrodes are activated from their own home. Basically, the pt uses the pt programmer at home, and nvtr's algorithm activates select electrode contacts one by one. Activating an electrode will either cause a bellows response, a toes response, no response, or a pain response. Bellows response means muscle contraction in the pelvic area, while toes response means muscle contraction in toes. When testing new electrode sites, the pt records each instance where bellows response occurs prior to a toes response (the stim can produce both, so which one comes first is important). And then, basically, the programmer takes the input for which electrodes are causing a bellow response first, deactivates the old electrodes, and activates the new ones causing that bellow response. Then the pt can superimpose their pre-set programming options over the new activated electrodes, and the pt programmer sends the new electrode and programming information to your clinician through the cloud.

In short, if your sns device stops working, in the past (or with competitors) you'd schedule a doctor's appt and reprogram the electrodes (of which competitors only have 20 or so contacts, as opposed to hundreds) at the doctors office. So, for the week you're waiting for your appointment, you're running to the bathroom 25x a day and pooping your pants or whatever. Not fun. With the at-home programming option, as soon as efficacy declines, you can reprogram immediately from your home. And much greater flexibility to effectively target incontinence with their mesh electrode array. Pretty cool stuff.
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02-16-2017 , 11:14 PM
Spanish broadcasting looks really interesting. Potentially $70m in (growing) EBIT and a $10m market cap with about $400m in liabilities with refinancing date 2 months out for $275m of those liabilities. And a bunch of hidden assets. Probably risky, but very mispriced nonetheless.

Wrote some about it here:


DYOW etc.

If anyone knows what potentially could sink this and put some odds on that would love to hear. The market seems to think equity will be wiped out at least 98%+ of the time.
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02-18-2017 , 01:01 PM
Are people still holding HOS?

Lost almost a 1/3rd of its value this week.

I know the outlook for oil isn't rosy near term but close to a bottom? Seems like a good entry point.
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02-18-2017 , 03:16 PM
I'm still holding a small amount I bought in the 14s a long time back but sold the rest of mine when it hit high 8s awhile back. Nice return given I bought it in the 4s. I've somewhat written off that chunk i bought at 14 tbh.

I imagine Ahhnuld is still holding, not sure about anyone else, but I'd be curious at what point he would decide to exit if oil is still in the 50-60 range come 2018.

I'm not sure what the strategy or plan is for HOS if the market recovery is still as shaky as it is right now during 2018 with the first chunk of debt coming due in 2019.
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02-19-2017 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dfgg
Spanish broadcasting looks really interesting. Potentially $70m in (growing) EBIT and a $10m market cap with about $400m in liabilities with refinancing date 2 months out for $275m of those liabilities. And a bunch of hidden assets. Probably risky, but very mispriced nonetheless.

Wrote some about it here:


DYOW etc.

If anyone knows what potentially could sink this and put some odds on that would love to hear. The market seems to think equity will be wiped out at least 98%+ of the time.
Interesting idea, just some thoughts.

1. I don't think you can extrapolate annual numbers from that Q3. It would be silly to think the election/trump didn't play a roll in boosting revenue #s. I know you took a look at 12/08 election but this election was nothing like those in terms of its impact on the Hispanic demographic. Still $45-$50m EBIT seems doable.

2. Its my understanding they are in a quiet period with regards to the FCC auction but you state they can make the auction results public. I really couldn't dig up much on this auction, did the FCC end the auction already? Seems like they've pushed off the date several times already.

3. Any idea who owns the bonds?
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02-20-2017 , 11:46 AM
Also their townhouse is going for $17m right now and the price was reduced from $19.75m.

Listing info

http://www.masseyknakal.com/listings...aspx?lst=24727
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02-21-2017 , 07:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wjsco
Re: Nuvectra. There's some good stuff on CoBF about Algovita, their SCS device. There's also a brief overview of the partnership with Aleva for DBS (Aleva's innovation is directional DBS stimulation).

Interestingly, they recently filed for FDA/CE approval for their SNS device. And, they've also filed alot of the patents pertaining to that device in the past few months. Big breakthroughs here, too - they managed to decouple the need for a 1:1 channel/conductor:electrode contact relationship. So, the competitor has X amount of conductors, and X amount of electrode contacts. NVTR introduced a relay such that they can have X amount of conductors and X*Y amount of electrode contacts - in short, they've developed a mesh electrode array with a 10x10 electrode contact configuration or 16x16. So, 100-256 contact points rather than 24 or whatever the competitor is. And all 100-256 of those contacts are on/around the sacral nerve. So, as the stim program loses efficacy over time (which happens with SNS - habituation or something like that), the patient can alter which of the 100-256 electrodes are activated, and can re-target the stim to an area that provides effective relief. the best part is that they've developed a way to allow the patient to reprogram which electrodes are activated from their own home. Basically, the pt uses the pt programmer at home, and nvtr's algorithm activates select electrode contacts one by one. Activating an electrode will either cause a bellows response, a toes response, no response, or a pain response. Bellows response means muscle contraction in the pelvic area, while toes response means muscle contraction in toes. When testing new electrode sites, the pt records each instance where bellows response occurs prior to a toes response (the stim can produce both, so which one comes first is important). And then, basically, the programmer takes the input for which electrodes are causing a bellow response first, deactivates the old electrodes, and activates the new ones causing that bellow response. Then the pt can superimpose their pre-set programming options over the new activated electrodes, and the pt programmer sends the new electrode and programming information to your clinician through the cloud.

In short, if your sns device stops working, in the past (or with competitors) you'd schedule a doctor's appt and reprogram the electrodes (of which competitors only have 20 or so contacts, as opposed to hundreds) at the doctors office. So, for the week you're waiting for your appointment, you're running to the bathroom 25x a day and pooping your pants or whatever. Not fun. With the at-home programming option, as soon as efficacy declines, you can reprogram immediately from your home. And much greater flexibility to effectively target incontinence with their mesh electrode array. Pretty cool stuff.
are you a nuvectra rep?
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02-21-2017 , 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trade2win
Also their townhouse is going for $17m right now and the price was reduced from $19.75m.

Listing info

http://www.masseyknakal.com/listings...aspx?lst=24727
Thanks for spotting that, for some reason I missed it. That is certainly not a good sign. They still own about 130k square feet of other real estate in major cities though. Some of that is TV studio's they probably won't need at all going forward. If they sell the townhouse for $15m , that is $11k per square feet. Take another $150 per sq feet for the rest and that is $20m, or $35m total.

The reason I think results could be partially sustainable at least is that Q3 was weak, and the bump happened in Q4. Their AIRE segment could easily be $10-15m+ in ebit with 50%+ margins, and so far they had not been very good at monetizing that.

And there is not much incentive to throw this into liquidation? I guess we will see.

If they would issue 100m shares at $0.50 per share, and get like $25m for the real estate over the next year, and a further $10-15m from operations this year, and assume they need about $10-15m for working capital needs, they could reduce debt by $95-105m. If they refinance at 10%, and EBIT would be $55m going forward (it is about $70m if you annualize Q4), that is $20m of FCF to equity holders. Apply a 7x multiple on that $20m and that is $1.32 per share.

Then three years out, they reduce debt by a further $55m, Now liabilities are $275m. Then assume ebit is $50m. If they would refinance they could then reduce interest to 7% or ~$20m. Apply a 8x multiple on $30m and you get $2.4 per share.

If EBIT stays at $70m due to Trump presidency for the next year or two and then reverts to $45-55m, it would be even better.

The 260m in NOLS should provide some incentive to not wipe out the equity as well? A big discount should probably be given due to management though.

Another interesting radio stock is Townsquare media, they have a large live event business attached that should see nice growth, and I think currently FCF is about $55.
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02-26-2017 , 11:18 PM
SORL is back below net current asset value again. NCAV $98m market cap 49$ at 3.09 a share.
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02-27-2017 , 12:21 AM
Seriously do some due diligence before recommending a company like SORL in a value thread. It's garbage. Why do you think it's trading below NCAV in the first place.
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02-27-2017 , 02:00 PM
Earnings after the bell March 1 for NTS for any of you invested in them: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/na...212906377.html

Kind of curious what Ahnuld is doing here at 1.17. I really want more.
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02-27-2017 , 11:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trade2win
Seriously do some due diligence before recommending a company like SORL in a value thread. It's garbage. Why do you think it's trading below NCAV in the first place.
Its a profitable net-net. The track record of baskets of profitable net-nets is pretty incredible. No one who understands Grahams approach expects stocks below quick liquidation value to be the cream of the crop. Its pretty cool though to me you hate this one. Often this thread has been a good contrarian indicator.
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