Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors
If keeping Crimea counts as winning, it would be - odds for sure. It's not at all clear that EU/US will provide enough weapons to take back a fortified area.
I was on *Russia's side* on the subject of Crimea lol. Expecting them to be OK with a mostly hostile government having control over their most important naval base that is entirely surrounded by an ethnically Russian population that is financially entirely dependent on Russian military spend was a pretty big stretch...
But invading Ukraine proper was a *very different* deal. They shouldn't have even entered Donbas in 2014. Every step they've taken past that was a mistake and a disaster from their perspective and a crime from everyone else's.
It's extremely unfortunate that Putin prioritized 'loyalty' over character or competence in his advisors. He built a custom bubble for himself that is probably only just now starting to crack and let reality in.
Incredibly ugly situation for all involved, particularly the Ukrainians who are basically living through a *messy* breakup between them and Russia that has been a long time coming. The Holodomor that Putin has allowed himself to pretend didn't happen is a trauma that entire culture won't get over for at least another century, and Putin's cronies running the country poorly and stealing everything was wasn't nailed down sped things up considerably. The Ukrainians have correctly assessed that this is their moment to break free, and they absolutely will.
Agreed that Russia might not lose Crimea, but they'll lose absolutely everything up to Crimea and nobody will respect their raises ever again. Truly the end of an era.