Not political at all and not discussing or engaging in any political discussion.

Purely from the perspective of making money, what is the play if I believe Russia will win this war? That is a broad question so let us say if Russia manages to take Bakhmut?

Answer: Make a bet with someone who thinks that Russia will not win the war.

If you want to risk $1000, make the bet for $1000.

1. Selling weapons to both sides seems like a war profiteering strategy that has stood the test of time.

2. Start a charity to raise money for ukranian refugees in which you give the absolute minimum amount of the donations to refugees and keep the rest.

3. A privacy service for russian oligarchs in which you help them hide assets to avoid having them seized by anti-russian governments or vigilante do-gooders.

lol I mean obviously Russia will get their way - not much of a "bet".

Ukrainian cam models

Open a business that uses Ukrainians. Get loyal employees now and work together to reach one another’s goals.

Seems to be an even bigger opportunity with Andrew Tate in jail.

No Direct answer here. Just reformatting the question. If the war continues for +1Y invest in Raytheon, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin.
Maybe look specifically what the US is shipping to Ukraine and see who makes that item. Then assume that the US will pay for a replacement of that "aged" item to restock its own military stockpile. ie. BAE systems for the M109A7 Howitzer?

Wait you thought Russia would win this war in March 2023? Holy **** dude.

I gotta be honest I've been back here approximately five minutes and I'm already ready to leave again. I've read more lolbad takes here in the last couple of days than I have in the last six months elsewhere. You guys are working hard on getting curated back out of my feed.

You should be able to get +500 odds at *least* on Bryans bet because you're straight up combusting that money.

If keeping Crimea counts as winning, it would be - odds for sure. It's not at all clear that EU/US will provide enough weapons to take back a fortified area.

I was on *Russia's side* on the subject of Crimea lol. Expecting them to be OK with a mostly hostile government having control over their most important naval base that is entirely surrounded by an ethnically Russian population that is financially entirely dependent on Russian military spend was a pretty big stretch...

But invading Ukraine proper was a *very different* deal. They shouldn't have even entered Donbas in 2014. Every step they've taken past that was a mistake and a disaster from their perspective and a crime from everyone else's.

It's extremely unfortunate that Putin prioritized 'loyalty' over character or competence in his advisors. He built a custom bubble for himself that is probably only just now starting to crack and let reality in.

Incredibly ugly situation for all involved, particularly the Ukrainians who are basically living through a *messy* breakup between them and Russia that has been a long time coming. The Holodomor that Putin has allowed himself to pretend didn't happen is a trauma that entire culture won't get over for at least another century, and Putin's cronies running the country poorly and stealing everything was wasn't nailed down sped things up considerably. The Ukrainians have correctly assessed that this is their moment to break free, and they absolutely will.

Agreed that Russia might not lose Crimea, but they'll lose absolutely everything up to Crimea and nobody will respect their raises ever again. Truly the end of an era.