Looking for thoughts and opinions on OLED. I have a friend who bought in a long time ago at $27ish and has traded in and out through the years. Just curious what others think about it and going forward

Here is a recent, bullish, SA article on its future prospects

Feel free to chime in on friend's thoughts:

Original thesis 9 years ago was Oled was future of tv

Tv tech goes through long life cycles

Tube reigned supreme for decades

Then lcd came out

Plasma was a bump in the road

Ran too hot and had issues

LCD turned into LED

Then OLED started getting promising and I viewed it as the next television tech

ItÂ’s taken a long time to bring the prices down

Currently makes up like 40% of cell phone market

Only like 3% of TVs

Each tv is worth A LOT more than a cell screen to the business

Blue material was the last piece

Been holding on to OLED and building position just watching continued adoption and waiting for blue material break through

Tons of other applications

They want to put Oled panels inside planes and make them the entire wall and then project the view outside on the screen

So it feels like you are flying in a giant glass plane lol

I think the 250 price target in the article is low

It was at 260 before blue timeline was even set

my LG OLED tv is unreal

Micro-LED will displace OLED in phones (stacked hybrid Micro-LED for Apple.) Mini-LED and Micro-LED will displace OLED TVs.

It's already getting less expensive to manufacture and you don't have to pay out patents.

Curious where everyone's head is at here.

I've been looking at JPM pretty hard here should we see a protracted drop. Haven't looked at individual value picks in a long time. Been mostly in indexes.

BYG

UK self-storage business which trades at about £2.1bn market cap. i love it very much. they build big concrete blocks in convenient locations where you can store your stuff

operating income of £110m on £170m of revenue last year. margins are insane because the depreciation on land + giant concrete blocks is ~nil and each site need about four people plus a dog to operate. they dont even have to heat the place

note i have stripped out property revaluation from the above. consider the upward drift of land value over time a sweetener

compound annual revenue growth of 8% over the last 5 years on stable margins. borrowing has increased by £100m and they've disgorged £360m in dividends over the period

the company owns most of the land on which it operates. £2.6bn of land+concrete vs £430m in borrowings. 98% of the land is owned. recall that the business trades at £2.1bn

businesses and individuals need short term storage in good times and bad. occupancy has bounced between 80% and 85% for the last 20 years, a period which includes some extreme conditions. if the metaverse/AI/genome-editing/self-driving/blockchain fintech whatever cathie wood future happens we will still need a place to store our ****.

working capital requirements are basically nil

short of a nuclear bomb going off i don't know how this business fails

tax? nope, its a REIT

downsides:
return on equity is not good
explosive growth is not possible
the two factors above make the chance of +1000% in the short or even medium term close to nil
not sexy. chance of becoming a memestock is nil

My blue-chip portfolio was down approx 7.8% last year. pretty happy with that.

Similar here. Down 5.7% on managed funds and down 6.6% on self-managed.

omg I'd blow a stranger in an alleyway if my accounts were only down a single digit percent congrats guys

Up 10% last year buying the occasional put and rolling that into VFIFX

You have to look at your returns over a full business cycle. Most of those who did well last year didn't do so over the last 5 or ten years. Obviously, some did, but it is pretty rare for someone to outperform in something like last year's market and have performed up to snuff when growth stocks were killing it over the years leading up to it.

Not true in my case nor I'm sure for many other talented investors.

I mean you could have just bought the DivAristocrats index/ETF 10 years ago and earned 12.16% CAGR with zero thought and less risk than market.

I bought NYCB.PRA preferreds in NYCB after they bought Signature Bank assets at a discount. 8% tax-preferred divy. Goes fixed-to-floating in 4 years. Non-cumulative perpetual also callable in 4 years.

Are you saying that you did shitty overall in the last business cycle?

If not, it probably means that you misunderstood my comment. How you do over decades is what matters.

Sure. That would have meant that you did well over a sufficiently long period for it to mean something.

It's really not hard to figure out what my response was directed at, in your post that was quoted. I'm sorry you had such trouble understanding what an intelligent 5th grader would have understood easily.

I didn't state anything about what your post was directed at. I said that you clearly misunderstood what I was saying in my previous point. It would have been easy for a young ESL student to understand my previous point, hence my later comment.

Down 7-ish percent last year in your "blue chip" portion of your portfolio isn't a big deal. Down equal to SPY would also not be a big deal, since (assuming non-idiot behavior in prior years*) that would still have you up handsomely over the last decade or two decades or three decades or four decades.

People out-performing a reasonable benchmark every year are exceedingly rare. That doesn't mean that they don't exist. (As a corollary, those that have underperformed over long periods should just stop having ideas)

*A big assumption in investing behavior

That quant I follow on Twitter is now a hedge fund manager and posted up some portfolio backtests for long-term allocations for a conservative portfolio. What do you guys think? That second one with a 14% CAGR seems interesting.

I started a Substack for deep value stocks(sub NCAV, NTAV). Ben Graham Net-Nets. I'm just going to do deep value on it. Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) is one of the best ones I've seen at this valuation.

https://stockpursuit.substack.com/

I looked at CWGL years and years ago. I think its a value trap. Unfortunately most net-nets are (or chinese scams).

There are a bunch of global asset or all-weather or whatever portfolios that have been backtested over time. If you pick the best (or near-best) allocation for a period, it probably isn't going to be the best over the next period and will likely do worse than average since it will emphasize the assets that have done really well during the backtest period and that reversion to the mean thingy happens.

Using a different period, it would have shown that it was great to have a sizable portion of the assets in real estate and absolutely nothing in Treasury bills.

I suppose it's dependant on the capabilities of the economy, politics. U.S. tech growth seems like a good bet if the U.S econony grows GDP over 1% long-term. Healthcare seems like a demographics trend in that data that should dwindle. Multi-national's will do well as developed nations grow and dollar likely stays weak to manage higher debt loads.

Lots of moving parts. Luckily, we don't have to make our bets today about what will happen over the next ten (or twenty or whatever) years. We can adjust as information comes in.

I'd certainly not want to hold BIL when short term rates are near zero, for instance. But I would want to when short-term rates are higher. For other assets, I wouldn't want to own much of them when they are trending down unless they got to silly prices. Same for assets that have run up to silly valuations.