gg

I'm confused (but also too lazy to look into this hard), I thought I read yesterday that analysts expected Groupon to lose money this year, but turn a profit next year (hah, right), but then in some Reuters (or Forbes or something) article from an hour or two ago, it said that analysts expected I think 2 or 3 cents/share profit this Q, but Groupon disappointed by losing 7 cents.

I am just confused, who are these analysts who thought GRPN would post a profit this quarter? Seems bizarre, I thought everyone knew how unlikely that was, weird.

NOT to hurt anyones feelings..... but.... this stock is a sceaming sell.... I will be shocked if this stock price doesnt hit single digits this year.

You're not exactly going to hurt anyone's feelings, or going out on a limb, I'm pretty sure every single poster in here agrees except that guy who was in here for a while whose roommate worked at Groupon.

Different analysts have different projections...some have to be overly optimistic to get in on the deal...and it is sell-side research after all...

Got into a big discussion about Groupon last night at dinner with some friends. Every single one of them was of the opinion that Groupon is overpriced, overrated, adds no value, and is doomed to fail. These aren't people that follow business trends extremely closely, just normal 20-something guys for the most part.

I don't know what the future holds for Groupon but it's insane how public perception is so negative now. It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

From consumers' or businesses' point of view?

I think from a businesses point of view, considering some of them use Groupon for deals.

The big question is, how can you capitalize from Groupon's fall?

Shorting the stock is hardly a good option considering the transaction costs and timing issues.

you can always buy put options:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GRPN&m=2014-01

but the prices are quite high, it seems everyone else already has the same idea

Groupon is testing VIP service for $30 per year; VIPs get early and extended access to deals, plus a better(?) return policy in case the deal turns sour.

Apparently Living Social has already hatched the idea of a premium service: "With each monthly payment of $20, Plus subscribers get a $25 credit that can be applied to any LivingSocial deal that month." Presumably the plan is to acquire customers at a discount, then sell them other, more profitable deals long-term.

I have thought about this so much, but it really does just seem like way, way too many people understand how bad a business is, yeah, I am no expert at all with this stuff, but it doesn't seem like there is a way right now.

This is like the CLASSIC stuff tech companies were doing in the late 90s, just grasping at straws, trying to change the model all over the place while their crappy business fails... if Groupon's first business model couldn't turn a profit (even on INSANELY HUGE sales), hard to believe their second choice model will succeed.

I mean, honestly too, this particular VIP membership thing is like WOW dumb.. the whole problem with Groupon customers is that they are largely bottom-feeders who don't want to spend ANY money on anything. This is why, despite whatever spin Andrew Mason and GRPN put on the stats, most Groupon customers do not spend more than the price of the groupon (actually, they spent like $1 more than the price, because the idea of not using 100% of the coupon is poison to them). The most frequent Groupon users (who are the ones who would potentially be the targets for a premium membership) are a few steps up from the people on those extreme couponing shows. They may possibly be the absolute LAST internet company that could sell a membership subscription to their members, these people are tightwads (and I say that with all due respect, because I know lots of ppl like this).

My coworker gave me a free groupon to a fancy Indian restaurant for their 8-course tasting menu that I had to use last night. The funny thing is that the groupon cost $40 "for an $80 value". But then they gave us the second tasting menu for $40 as well. And there's no way that's an $80 charge normally. $40 seems about right.

Sorry for the stupid NOOB question but could someone explain why it's such a bad idea to short Groupon?

Groupon is already priced in to go down. To short the stock now, you have to overpay normal prices to get into the game, which ups the risk to the point where it is a bad idea.