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Old 07-07-2017, 07:36 AM   #2051
Mihkel05
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
Sure, but those events are sparse, and not always the driver's fault. Not saying it can't be done but it's far from a simple problem.
It is difficult. But it seems like gathering data from half a million cars instead of a few dozen would provide a fairly large advantage? Seems like something that is solved by Tesla's information advantage.

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
What are you talking about? No one says that. Of course this is not how it works.

Your knowledge isn't convincing though. I asked you a question and you haven't replied to it. It made no sense so I am excited to hear your explanation for it. Also, heltok who works in the field said the opposite.

You get caught up in your hate but you make no sense.
In earnest, did you really expect a well thought out, reasonable viewpoint?
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Old 07-08-2017, 03:05 PM   #2052
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Going right over your heads.

Here's a challenge. Try and explain:

a) What each car is going to be "learning"/what data it is going to be storing
Probably the learning will happen on the cloud.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
b) What data will be uploaded over the air from customer cars to Tesla
Probably position, false radar detections, images(video), extracted lane markings, traffic sign positions, landmark positions etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
c) How that helps Tesla refine their autonomous driving algorithms from level 2/3 (where it is now) to level 4, compared to say a more traditional route the majors/Waymo are taking. I'm specifically interested in what advantages they will gain from this process over having a fleet of say 20 of their own test cars where they can download the full data sets.
They get data. Data is useful for machine learning.

Compared to Waymo they get data from more users. This will help them keep their maps up to date faster, give them more data from accidents and driver intervention and I assume they have a lot of more reasons for wanting data.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
- Camera feed from disengagement moments if there's sufficient bandwidth to upload
They use wifi for uploading this. Bandwidth may be a problem for some user but for plenty of their users bandwidth is no problem.

Quote:
- Decision data (useless without the camera feed)
They have camera feed. It is unclear if they will try to learn the decision behaviour from human drivers. It is possible that they will just use that kind of data for validation and not for learning.
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Old 07-08-2017, 03:42 PM   #2053
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

This has been a fun read. So where do people ITT actually think tesla's value is headed? Are the detractors suggesting they'll be virtually gone in the next 5 years? What are the supporters predicting?
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Old 07-09-2017, 02:59 AM   #2054
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Production of the Model 3 has started, here is #1:
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Old 07-09-2017, 05:55 AM   #2055
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilverine View Post
This has been a fun read. So where do people ITT actually think tesla's value is headed? Are the detractors suggesting they'll be virtually gone in the next 5 years? What are the supporters predicting?
Yeah, wondering that myself. TS is not up to speed on machine learning, which is going to be HUGE. But, not sure how far along other automakers are. They can definitely learn from cloud data with or without human drivers.
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Old 07-09-2017, 12:39 PM   #2056
mark "twang"
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilverine View Post
This has been a fun read. So where do people ITT actually think tesla's value is headed? Are the detractors suggesting they'll be virtually gone in the next 5 years? What are the supporters predicting?
Sell off to Google
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Old 07-09-2017, 01:07 PM   #2057
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Wilverine View Post
This has been a fun read. So where do people ITT actually think tesla's value is headed? Are the detractors suggesting they'll be virtually gone in the next 5 years? What are the supporters predicting?
As a supporter I see 20k cars/month at the end of the year and about double that at the same time next year. I see about 2M cars/year (Model Y being the best selling of them) in 5 years with a 10x valuation. There are some unknowns and a high probability that something will go wrong, but also some probability of an in between 0x and 10x valuation.

Imo demand for Model 3 should remain pretty high as the car in many ways is a cheaper(TCO), better(0-100km/h, lower cog, more silent etc) and more environmentally friendly car than the best selling cars in many markets as of today. Demand should pick up as more and more people get to ride in their friends' Model 3s.

Disclaimer: I own some TSLA and a Model 3 reservation.
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Old 07-09-2017, 04:55 PM   #2058
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

what do you mean by 10x valuation?
10x revenue? 10x earnings? 10x what it's at now (50b)?
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Old 07-09-2017, 05:34 PM   #2059
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by BooLoo View Post
what do you mean by 10x valuation?
10x revenue? 10x earnings? 10x what it's at now (50b)?
Ya. Not saying present value today is 10x, just that if not anything unexpected happens, which something likely will, that's the valuation I see.


From TMC:
Quote:
If you study the competition, there is no BEV slated to come online before 2019 (at the soonest) that will:

1.) Be priced in the $35K range
2.) Be built as a performance sedan/crossover (not a boxy hatchback)
3.) Have production capacity for multiple hundreds of thousands
4.) Be available in all states / countries, regardless of subsidy

The Bolt fails #2/3/4.

The iPace (the next Model 3 "killer") has been completely outsourced by Jaguar to Magna Steyr at an expected (full) production capacity of 10-20K. Additionally it will be far more than $35K.

BMWs 3-series will be 2020+ and more expensive.

Volvo will come online with 'something' in 2019-2020. Price and production capacity unknown.

VW is planning one model in 2019, with many more coming in the 2020s. They're the only company outside of Tesla that's serious about BEVs, solely due to their diesel scandal. Everyone else is prevented from such self-disruption by the Innovator's Dilemma, so most everything you read (at the moment) is just publicity.

My conclusions:

1. The Model 3 will have both a market and mindshare monopoly until 2019-2022.
Gene Munster thinks that Model 3s addressable market could be 11 million cars in the U.S. alone.

2. The Model 3 will have (effectively) unlimited demand during that timeframe.
In other words, demand will exceed 500K units per year, which is Tesla's planned production capacity.

3. Tesla's sales force will increase by ~250K persons by the end of 2018.
These are or course the Model 3 owners who'll be the first to own a BEV at their workplace and will take all their co-workers and friends for a ride. Unlike the Model S/X -- this car will be affordable by most.

4. The Model 3 will (in retrospect) be the second most important car ever built. It will change the industry forever.

5. Further advancements in autopilot will amplify all the effects above.
The car could (and likely will) be perceived as many multiples better than competing ICE vehicles.

As always, this isn't investment advice. Tesla can screw this up with a hardware recall, any form of lasting bad publicity, persistent losses, etc.

However, I believe the five points above are more likely to happen than not...
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Old 07-09-2017, 05:54 PM   #2060
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by heltok View Post
Production of the Model 3 has started, here is #1:
ponzi. gtfo with this musk propaganda fanboy clown.

confirmed Enron...
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Old 07-09-2017, 06:47 PM   #2061
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by heltok View Post
Ya. Not saying present value today is 10x, just that if not anything unexpected happens, which something likely will, that's the valuation I see.
so a 500b $ company by 2022?
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Old 07-10-2017, 08:55 AM   #2062
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

We know that demand for the Model S was so great they put it on sale. I'm sure the Model 3 will have the same demand that far outstrips supply they will lower the price!
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:40 PM   #2063
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Cadillac Super Cruise autopilot is coming in a couple of months.

Quote:
Beyond hands-free driving, Super Cruise introduces another innovation. Where the Tesla relies solely on camera and radar sensors to identify lane markings and other vehicles around the car, Super Cruise adds a combination of GPS and digital mapping to anticipate terrain to make for smoother turns.

Cadillac said it has mapped practically all interstate highways and limited access roads with on-off ramps in the U.S. and Canada — 160,000 miles’ worth.

Combining GPS positioning with the map, the carmaker said Super Cruise can see 2,500 meters ahead. The carmaker said that helps keep the car centered, making for a smooth ride, and lessening the chance that the system will be confused and start wobbling a bit as it searches for lane markings, as Teslas sometimes do.

And the map system allows Super Cruise, unlike Autopilot, to automatically adjust speed while taking a curve.

“We want every experience to be relaxed, comfortable and safe,” said Cadillac’s Pam Fletcher, executive chief engineer.
Sounds a lot more competent and safe than what Tesla is doing.
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Old 07-13-2017, 06:45 PM   #2064
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I was an engineer working with maps for SDCs, my master thesis was about mapping. Did some presentation about what Tesla was doing and have been part of a team designing the map strategy for one of the major car manufacturers. That quote has a lot of inaccuracies, it was likely written by a journalist and not a quote from the company. From the text it doesn't seem as they are doing anything that TomTom, Here, Mobileye, Alphabet, Tesla etc are not already doing.

Fwiw, Tesla has a map and use GPS. So does pretty much every Navi system out there.

Quote:
And the map system allows Super Cruise, unlike Autopilot, to automatically adjust speed while taking a curve.
Tesla users are complaining about this speed adjustment, see for example 1min into the video and the rest of the video.
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Old 07-13-2017, 08:37 PM   #2065
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Heltok could u specify the inaccuracies?
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Old 07-14-2017, 03:31 AM   #2066
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Heltok could u specify the inaccuracies?
Ok, lets do it sentence by sentence.

Quote:
Where the Tesla relies solely on camera and radar sensors to identify lane markings and other vehicles around the car, Super Cruise adds a combination of GPS and digital mapping to anticipate terrain to make for smoother turns.
Tesla also relies heavily on sonar to detect vehicles and curbs. As for what they store in their maps it is not exactly known afaik, but I assume they store lane markings, but they don't seem to be able to use it well yet. GPS and digital mapping is very standard for navigation, using it for control is also pretty standard.

Quote:
Cadillac said it has mapped practically all interstate highways and limited access roads with on-off ramps in the U.S. and Canada — 160,000 miles’ worth.
Sure. But TomTom and Here have HD-maps for with much more coverage than this. Tesla gathers data from their vehicles, so it might be more stochastic where they have maps. I think there are pretty large similarities between Teslas maps and Mobileye's maps.

Fwiw, here is how TomTom maps looks like, pretty neat right?

They store the HD map as a digital image attached to the center spline. I think including traffic signs, lane markings and HD content they were down to like ~50kB/km.

Google use a bitmap of the infrared reflectivity of the ground for positioning in the lane. But they also have a few different layers. As for Mobileye (and likely similarly Tesla) they are doing like this:
https://youtu.be/b_lBL2yhU5A?t=914

Quote:
Combining GPS positioning with the map, the carmaker said Super Cruise can see 2,500 meters ahead.
This is just an arbitrary number. We used to call this electronic horizon, I didn't like the term, but ok. As for Operational Horizon, which is used for control, you don't really need that long horizon.

Quote:
The carmaker said that helps keep the car centered, making for a smooth ride, and lessening the chance that the system will be confused and start wobbling a bit as it searches for lane markings, as Teslas sometimes do.
Smooth ride was not our priority, not killing the driver was our. By being very centered and knowing exactly where in the map you are, you have a few extra seconds before you leave the lane if you go blind for some reason. A few seconds to lower the speed before a fontal collision. I agree that Teslas enhanced autopilot is not great at following lane markings today. The exact reason for this I don't know, but I assume they are working on improving this.

Quote:
And the map system allows Super Cruise, unlike Autopilot, to automatically adjust speed while taking a curve.
Autopilot does this already as the video showed.

Quote:
“We want every experience to be relaxed, comfortable and safe,” said Cadillac’s Pam Fletcher, executive chief engineer.
Good! =)

Fwiw, I think with Karpathy as the head of the Autopilot project I assume we will see more DL in their maps. Soon humans might not be able to understand what kind of maps they use, only verify that they work in simulation and actual driving.


Seems like the journalist really likes to compare to Tesla Autopilot. But at least be accurate if you do that.

Last edited by heltok; 07-14-2017 at 03:43 AM.
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Old 07-14-2017, 05:36 AM   #2067
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by heltok View Post
Smooth ride was not our priority, not killing the driver was our.
OK, well you obviously don't work for Tesla.
Quote:
By being very centered and knowing exactly where in the map you are, you have a few extra seconds before you leave the lane if you go blind for some reason. A few seconds to lower the speed before a fontal collision.
Yep, confirmed you don't work for Tesla. I posted a list of fatal mistakes that Tesla makes a couple of pages ago. They clearly don't do this.
Quote:
Seems like the journalist really likes to compare to Tesla Autopilot. But at least be accurate if you do that.
What exactly is inaccurate except for the minor part about sonar? You seem upset that they're pointing out the ways in which Cruise is better than Tesla autopilot (which it obviously is - they're far ahead). Do you at least admit the possibility that Cruise mapping is superior? Tesla's use of mapping is horrible, we know that for a fact. Lane swerving, taking off ramps it shouldn't, relying completely on the camera and having it all go to a dangerous swerving mess if the camera is blinded, etc.
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Old 07-14-2017, 11:53 AM   #2068
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The sonar part is lol. It isn't in AP. That is quite a bit of pedantic neckbearding and poor reading comprehension to call that an "error".

No one mentioning Audi winning the Level 3 war (allegedly)?
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Old 07-16-2017, 05:31 PM   #2069
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
TS,

what you get wrong about us cult members is the fact that we don't believe 100% of what Musk is saying but realize that even if he only achieves 33% of what he claims, it's going to be a milestone and the company will be worth more according to it.
ok a bit weird calling yourself a Musk cult member
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Old 07-16-2017, 06:02 PM   #2070
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I didn't really read that comment but it's absurd now that you quote it.

If Musk achieves 33% of what he claims, he is bankrupt. If Musk achieves 66% of what he claims, he is bankrupt.

Musk will need to achieve 100% of what he claims to equal the valuation of Ford in 10 years (about -20% from where they are now - -40% when you include Ford's dividends you're missing out on)
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Old 07-17-2017, 02:53 PM   #2071
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
I didn't really read that comment but it's absurd now that you quote it.

If Musk achieves 33% of what he claims, he is bankrupt. If Musk achieves 66% of what he claims, he is bankrupt.

Musk will need to achieve 100% of what he claims to equal the valuation of Ford in 10 years (about -20% from where they are now - -40% when you include Ford's dividends you're missing out on)
I agree with you for the most part. I don't, however, see Musk as a sinister figure or con man. He seems like an ambitious guy with relatively good intentions.

As a company Tesla is:
-in a shaky industry
-running on hype not results
-without a clear path to even achieve this bloated valuation imo
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:01 PM   #2072
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Wilverine View Post
-running on hype not results
-without a clear path to even achieve this bloated valuation imo
As a stock holder I am happy with results so far:


Path forward is:
Go from 0->5000 Model 3/week in December. Go from 5000->10000/week December 2018. Introduce Semi and make some semis. Introduce Model Y later this year, start production 2019, make 1M Model Y in 2020, 2M 2021. Get 20-30% gross margin on the cars. Start selling roofs in 2017, increase production over time. Sell stationary batteries, growth rate double that of vehicles.

According to my math if they manage this they should reach current valuation with good margins.

We can argue if they will be able to get there or not. But imo at least they have a pretty clear path in front of them. Do we have any similar plans for their competition? For VW, Toyota, Waymo etc?
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:43 PM   #2073
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

guess those three will just keep on printing money and not diluting their shareholders. »\_(ツ)_/»
but if you're happy, i guess everything's fine.
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Old 07-17-2017, 05:57 PM   #2074
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok View Post
As a stock holder I am happy with results so far:


Path forward is:
Go from 0->5000 Model 3/week in December. Go from 5000->10000/week December 2018. Introduce Semi and make some semis. Introduce Model Y later this year, start production 2019, make 1M Model Y in 2020, 2M 2021. Get 20-30% gross margin on the cars. Start selling roofs in 2017, increase production over time. Sell stationary batteries, growth rate double that of vehicles.

According to my math if they manage this they should reach current valuation with good margins.

We can argue if they will be able to get there or not. But imo at least they have a pretty clear path in front of them. Do we have any similar plans for their competition? For VW, Toyota, Waymo etc?
When do you see them making consistent positive earnings and what does their stock price look like at this point in time??
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:04 PM   #2075
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) adds two independent directors to its board: James Rupert Murdoch, CEO of Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX, FOXA), and Linda Johnson Rice, chairman of Johnson Publishing.

TSLA's move comes after months of pressure from a group of pension funds that urged the company to add more independent directors.
Thoughts on this? Seems bizarre, frankly. This is the kind of thing that scammy penny companies do: get big name unrelated people/former CEOs/politicians on their boards. How the **** do these appointments help them run the company better or make cars?
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