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Old 09-06-2013, 11:52 AM   #176
DickFuld
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Any negative catalyst will begin the correction process. The problem is that you want to have your position before the catalyst is announced because it will likely do so near instantaneously. That said, holding a negative position with so many elon musk fans supporting any downward movement takes a lot of cajones. Also there is already tremendous short interest in this stock, which leads me to question how much short gas is left in the tank at any given time. Seems like this stock will just hang in the 165-175 neighborhood until the catalyst comes (in either direction.)
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:43 PM   #177
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Ok, I'd like to get back into Tesla. Does anyone have any educated opinions on what to look for after today's drop?

I'm basically a long term investor that has a smaller chunk of money I'm learning and gambling with. Although, I'd like to not gamble, but know that since I'm unskilled it is.....I've actually made more money with this chunk of money than my entire portfolio so far. lolrungood.
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:47 PM   #178
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Ok, I'd like to get back into Tesla. Does anyone have any educated opinions on what to look for after today's drop?
More drops?
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:58 PM   #179
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Tesla is illogical and reacts indifferent to the markets and can move sharply in either direction without any major catalysts/news. An opinion at this point is mostly just a guess. With that said I'd guess it finishes lower tomorrow barring no new info is released.
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Old 09-10-2013, 12:46 AM   #180
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla is illogical and reacts indifferent to the markets and can move sharply in either direction without any major catalysts/news. An opinion at this point is mostly just a guess. With that said I'd guess it finishes lower tomorrow barring no new info is released.
So what you're saying is that Tesla is the Bitcoin of the stock market?
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Old 09-10-2013, 12:50 AM   #181
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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So what you're saying is that Tesla is the Bitcoin of the stock market?
Not quite, given people have the ability to short, use options, etc. I'm just saying tesla has seen huge increases and decreases in price that don't correlate in any way to overall market performance, and unrelated to the fact that nothing new has come out about them. I am bullish of markets overall atm on positive syria news, but bearish on tesla's performance for tomorrows session.
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Old 09-10-2013, 01:12 AM   #182
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Not quite, given people have the ability to short, use options, etc. I'm just saying tesla has seen huge increases and decreases in price that don't correlate in any way to overall market performance, and unrelated to the fact that nothing new has come out about them.
You can short bitcoins etc. Bitcoin has seen huge increases and decreases in price that don correlate to anything.

Imo both Tesla and Bitcoin show potential. Tesla as a new thinking, young company that did what few thought was possible and created a car that many customers think is superior to all the older car manufacturers' cars.


Bitcoin has properties which some think are superior to fiat money and the thesis that markets will gravitate towards the superior money is plausible.

So I can see some people think that both Tesla and Bitcoin have huge potentials. Both also have the hero-story, Elon Musk the modern Tony Stark and Satoshi the unknown vigliante and the user being part of the fight. This is creating a Apple-like buzz around both which makes the users the biggest promoters.
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:41 PM   #183
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I wouldn't short TSLA until there's actually a risk of some negative event (e.g. bad earnings). I think with no news, TSLA could very well keep rising ala AAPL on its way to $700. However, all it takes is a slight miss to sink the ship.
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Old 09-25-2013, 01:30 PM   #184
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Citron comes out with their run down of TSLA stock.

http://www.citronresearch.com/wp-con...tsla-final.pdf
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Old 09-25-2013, 06:15 PM   #185
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Thanks, dc_publius. That was an entertaining read. Especially enjoyed the convertible note portion.
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Old 10-02-2013, 07:57 PM   #186
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

TSLA down 6% after a video showed a Tesla Model S burning... Thoughts?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...grade/2911345/
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Old 10-02-2013, 07:58 PM   #187
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Still the most insanely overvalued stock out there?
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Old 10-03-2013, 03:17 AM   #188
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Still the most insanely overvalued stock out there?
I would say NFLX or AMZN.

Tesla is selling a product that could potentially take up significant market share of the auto industry.

NFLX is at the mercy of their content contracts which continue to get worse. Or will they make enough original content to keep people on?

AMZN keeps generating tons of revenue, and killing it in retail, but will those sales evaporate if they ever raise prices enough to make a profit? They own the kindle business and that looks very lucrative in the future.
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Old 10-03-2013, 04:52 AM   #189
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

AMZN isn't overvalued...lol. $100 billion is a bargain to own the world's flagship online retailer with a P/S of less than 2 and heaps of room to grow. Not that I'm long (for various reasons), but it's not overvalued.

Tesla's odd of taking up a significant share of the auto industry are zero without major breakthroughs in battery technology (away from Lithium, rare earths), and years of heavy capex on manufacturing this new technology. In which case plenty of others will be making electric cars.

For all the great reviews, most of what is great about the car is the fact that it is a pure EV, and has an acceleration profile, quietness, smoothness and moderness unmatched by anything running an internal combustion engine. Anyone else can produce that if they decide to go pure EV as well, which they will if Tesla starts going over 50K/year.
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Old 10-03-2013, 08:56 AM   #190
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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AMZN isn't overvalued...lol. $100 billion is a bargain to own the world's flagship online retailer with a P/S of less than 2 and heaps of room to grow. Not that I'm long (for various reasons), but it's not overvalued.

Tesla's odd of taking up a significant share of the auto industry are zero without major breakthroughs in battery technology (away from Lithium, rare earths), and years of heavy capex on manufacturing this new technology. In which case plenty of others will be making electric cars.

For all the great reviews, most of what is great about the car is the fact that it is a pure EV, and has an acceleration profile, quietness, smoothness and moderness unmatched by anything running an internal combustion engine. Anyone else can produce that if they decide to go pure EV as well, which they will if Tesla starts going over 50K/year.
Maybe microsoft will make a zune car. You could replace all your facts with congruent facts about AAPL and be just as right and just as wrong. I am short TSLA but they have an unmatched cool factor that all your books numbers just can't quantify
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Old 10-03-2013, 09:22 AM   #191
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

....Which I have been arguing for throughout this thread. I get it. Maybe better than you. I have been calling strongly against a short since this thing was at $95. Read my early posts in this thread.

What you don't get is that the "cool factor" is largely because they are the first pure electric drive in a sports car. Sports cars are cool. Sports cars that are space age first of their kind all electric vehicles are WAY cool. The cool factor rapidly fades when the price point comes down to a budget car, which is the only way they'll ever sell volume. Then they're up against hundreds of models tailored very well to fit a variety of needs.

Seriously, watch any of the reviews of this car and take out everything attributable to a pure electric drive train. What are you left with? Answer: nothing.

And surely you realize how absurd it is to compare a $30-$70K car with a $200 iPhone (with subsidy)? Everyone wants a BMW/Merc/Porsche but they make a tiny fraction of global sales purely because of their price. If cars were $600 I would agree with you.
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Old 10-03-2013, 09:39 AM   #192
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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....Which I have been arguing for throughout this thread. I get it. Maybe better than you. I have been calling strongly against a short since this thing was at $95. Read my early posts in this thread.

What you don't get is that the "cool factor" is largely because they are the first pure electric drive in a sports car. Sports cars are cool. Sports cars that are space age first of their kind all electric vehicles are WAY cool. The cool factor rapidly fades when the price point comes down to a budget car, which is the only way they'll ever sell volume. Then they're up against hundreds of models tailored very well to fit a variety of needs.

Seriously, watch any of the reviews of this car and take out everything attributable to a pure electric drive train. What are you left with? Answer: nothing.

And surely you realize how absurd it is to compare a $30-$70K car with a $200 iPhone (with subsidy)? Everyone wants a BMW/Merc/Porsche but they make a tiny fraction of global sales purely because of their price. If cars were $600 I would agree with you.
Maybe indeed but AAPL didn't start out selling iphones for $200. They obtained the cool factor selling computers that few people could afford. That transcended down to lower priced products. Other companies made comparable offerings that were seen as me-too despite the fact that AAPL never invented anything.

And no I don't think comparing a $30k car with a $200 phone is nearly as absurd as you think it is since there are a ton of people can stretch their finances to get into that $30k car and will if it becomes available and still has a halo hovering over it
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Old 10-03-2013, 03:07 PM   #193
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla's odd of taking up a significant share of the auto industry are zero without major breakthroughs in battery technology (away from Lithium, rare earths), and years of heavy capex on manufacturing this new technology. In which case plenty of others will be making electric cars.
Musk has said no knew breakthrough is needed for a 200mi range 30k car, what is needed is a doubling of manufacturing battery capacity. I read estimates that at 100k car sales a year tesla will already be the largest battery purchaser on the world market. At 300k cars a year tesla would need to consume 100% of current world Li-ion battery capacity.
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Old 10-03-2013, 03:10 PM   #194
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Maybe indeed but AAPL didn't start out selling iphones for $200. They obtained the cool factor selling computers that few people could afford. That transcended down to lower priced products. Other companies made comparable offerings that were seen as me-too despite the fact that AAPL never invented anything.

And no I don't think comparing a $30k car with a $200 phone is nearly as absurd as you think it is since there are a ton of people can stretch their finances to get into that $30k car and will if it becomes available and still has a halo hovering over it
Not to mention a 30k car that saves you annually on fuel costs. Gas prices are expected to do what in the next 3-5 years?
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:41 PM   #195
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

This stock is so sick, will be below $50 sometime over the next couple of years.
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Old 10-16-2013, 12:05 AM   #196
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla's odd of taking up a significant share of the auto industry are zero without major breakthroughs in battery technology (away from Lithium, rare earths), and years of heavy capex on manufacturing this new technology. In which case plenty of others will be making electric cars.

For all the great reviews, most of what is great about the car is the fact that it is a pure EV, and has an acceleration profile, quietness, smoothness and moderness unmatched by anything running an internal combustion engine. Anyone else can produce that if they decide to go pure EV as well, which they will if Tesla starts going over 50K/year.
I really don't see that happening. Tesla is over a generation ahead in pure EV car engineering and it shows. They have an incredible moat in battery tech, engineering and failure analysis know how. Only Panasonic and TI have similar levels of tech/understanding and Tesla is already in bed with Panasonic, whereas TI doesn't care about cars.

Neither the Chinese or American suppliers could hope to help any of Tesla's competitors to catch up any time soon. Attend any of the battery tech and failure analysis conferences and you can see how woefully behind they all are. Even Sony is a generation behind.

Whether it justifies the present stock price is another issue.
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Old 10-16-2013, 12:46 AM   #197
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

You're missing a few things.

The car makers got a lot more financial resources and data points (by virtue of selling the EVs they do have in much larger volumes). There are reasons for this. They view EVs as the future and are treating the current EVs as subsidized research platforms and pilot projects. They also want to sell as many EVs as they can for regulators (EPS). When they decide to go all in, 10% of their R&D budgets will dwarf Tesla's entire revenue stream. Make no mistake, they'll reach this point well before Tesla grabs significant market share.

You also missing, even by Tesla's own very optimistic projections, Lithium-ion battery technology is essentially maxed out. The energy density is just too low compared to gasoline for a Lithium-ion based pure-EV to ever have enough range for the mass market. Tesla's moat is surrounding a castle nobody really wants in the long run.
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Old 10-21-2013, 08:53 PM   #198
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

TSLA down six percent today.
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Old 10-23-2013, 03:29 PM   #199
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

what is the reason to start the right hand x axis at 60%?
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Old 10-23-2013, 03:49 PM   #200
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

although the lemons as bullets redeem them imo
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