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Old 06-15-2017, 05:12 PM   #1951
Spurious
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

(Don't have exact data so this might be slightly wrong, going only by eyesight) There is literally one other entry point (besides the start) in that graph where TSLA was a worse investment than QQQ. It's an absurd argument. TSLA doesn't even move that much in line with QQQ. They are just at the same start and end point. Not sure what your ****ing point is but it's definitely not well thought out.
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:58 PM   #1952
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Just like when a boat is being lifted by the tide, we could make the point that the rise makes it more likely the boat has levitation abilities using your logic above.
It does, and the higher the boat goes the higher the probability. At 100m above sea level the probability will be close to 1. At 0m it will be lower(close to 0) and -100m even lower given some reasonable assumptions.

Anyway, can we please stick to just posting information relevant to Tesla and leave our difference in conclusions to ourselves?
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Old 06-15-2017, 08:49 PM   #1953
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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So my background is in sensor fusion and probabilistic robotics. There when we get a measurement we usually assign it a mean and a covariance, that is we describe it by moments. Anyway, there is a duality to this representation called the information canonical form where the information is the inverse of the covariance:
http://ais.informatik.uni-freiburg.d...slam07-eif.pdf

So anyway in this case we get two measurements of two very different increases. One has a large mean 3*10^6 and the other a smaller mean 7. So we enter the measurement into two different system matrices. Since it is very complex systems, and frankly we have pretty much no idea how they work, we set a very low information to these measurement. My point is anyway that no matter how low information we assign to it, it will still be have a mean affecting inference on the system in the same direction. This is what I meant by that this measurement indicates that the market believes it is more likely. Give all the other data inference might indicate a different relationship, but this single measurement is indicating this.
Would be pretty awesome if you were the TSLA bear ITT...
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Old 06-15-2017, 09:48 PM   #1954
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by heltok View Post
Anyway, can we please stick to just posting information relevant to Tesla and leave our difference in conclusions to ourselves?
So post in an investment forum and not discuss opinions on said investments?
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:05 AM   #1955
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ChipRick View Post
Would be pretty awesome if you were the TSLA bear ITT...
Not for my bankroll :P

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
So post in an investment forum and not discuss opinions on said investments?
I do post in some investment forums, some private ones and also TMC/reddit etc. Not super active in the latter.

I see investing as a three part endeavour
1. Gather information
2. Prediction
3. Action

If me and toothsayer have issues with our communication on 2 we can stick to 1 and 3.
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Old 06-16-2017, 11:55 AM   #1956
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
Quick question to those who say be wary of the competition:
Have you missed that HUGE Diesel scandal? The so called competitive industry had to cheat in order to sell their stuff. If they can only get ahead by cheating how can they compete with an innovative company that has a fraction of the workforce?
I think this is an example of backwards thinking. To me it demonstrates how competitive the auto industry is and how these companies aren't willing to participate in a sector at a loss. Diesel sedans compete with gas, and its not easy

Maybe I'm missing something but tesla cars are just cool e-cars that don't make money. You can offer a luxury product at a loss and the luxury market will put down a deposit and wait for it as if its a Manhattan condo building still under construction. When tesla gets to the point they want to start mass producing cars at a profit, that's when competition will step in and it doesn't seem like theres too many obstacles for other auto makers.

Not that many people are putting down a deposit and on a waiting list for an entry level car. Thats going to create a massive amount of risk and competition for tesla. Pre sales are a financing method for a money losing business at this point

Tesla may be able to keep advancing the company and hold a big e-car market share, but this is not going to be easy imo. It's valued as a successful mass production auto company, not as a niche luxury car company
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:20 PM   #1957
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by juan valdez View Post
Maybe I'm missing something but tesla cars are just cool e-cars that don't make money.
Tesla makes a lot of money on their cars, gross margin is around 25-30%. But they spend even more money on operating costs such as R&D, administration and capital expenses thus making an operational loss per sold car. Investors who are long thinks this is a great idea. Investors who are short Tesla thinks this is a terrible idea. Time will tell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez View Post
When tesla gets to the point they want to start mass producing cars at a profit, that's when competition will step in and it doesn't seem like theres too many obstacles for other auto makers.
One obstacle is lack of batteries. If all the major Auto manufacturers are gonna be making >500k BEV/year each in 2020 there will imho be a severe lack of batteries from LG, Panasonic.
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