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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

04-26-2017 , 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by heltok
A lot of robots are arriving at Tesla:
https://electrek.co/2017/04/25/tesla...line-pictures/
Of course robots are arriving at TSLA. Cars are built by robots, and they need to start a Model 3 production line.. Other car manufacturers are years ahead of TSLA here.

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What do guys think about the front of the Model 3? I kind of like how different it looks. It will take some time getting used to, but then it will make other cars look a bit strange also. And really like when tech companies don't use skeuomorphism.
I think the Model 3 looks great all over. Tesla build nice looking car shells. From that angle the front looks like it wants to give something a kiss, but I don't think it matters. Looks good overall. I'd say 3/4 of the orders for Model 3 are based purely on the shell.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-27-2017 , 09:10 AM
About those robots being delivered, which are appropriately called Kukbots.

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The invasion of the Kukabots says something important about the state of the Model 3 assembly line, a.k.a. Alien Dreadnought. That critical systems integration phase hasn't even begun yet. Assuming that the robots are unpacked and installed in 2-3 weeks, it only leaves about 2 months for the systems integration and test phase of Dreadnought construction.

Is that enough time? Probably not. But then, who really expected Tesla to begin production in July?
Tesla behind schedule as usual....
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04-27-2017 , 12:37 PM
Lol kukabots
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04-27-2017 , 12:56 PM
More news:
Quote:
FRANKFURT, April 27 (Reuters) - Tesla executive
Klaus Grohmann was ousted last month after a clash with Chief
Executive Elon Musk over the strategy of Grohmann's firm, which
Tesla had acquired in November, a source familiar with the
matter told Reuters.
The Silicon Valley luxury electric carmaker is counting on
Grohmann Engineering's automation and engineering expertise to
help it ramp up production to 500,000 cars per year by 2018.
At the time of the purchase, it described Klaus Grohmann and
the company he founded as a "world leader in highly automated
manufacturing".
Tesla planned to keep Grohmann on, and Grohmann wanted to
stay, but the clash with Musk over how to treat existing clients
resulted in his departure, the source said.
This is not good for TSLA. Who knows what the nutters who "believe" in TSLA will make of it, but losing key personal ahead of a major ramp up is a disaster. And it shows Musk's inexperience and stupidity. It's pretty bad news at these valuations
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04-27-2017 , 01:35 PM
these are all just little scratches, not significant enough to damage the company. the stock has totally distanced itself from the ****-ups of the business-side. it's all story and believe.

as i see it, they will be missing their execution targets on the model 3 production. and when this sinks into the news, all these little stories like the grohmann ousting and the recall will be brought up again.
anyways, 10 to 15 years from now, tsla will be a prime case in business schools for mission creep, bad execution and investor exploitation.
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04-28-2017 , 07:16 PM
New boring concept video:


Semi teaser:
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04-29-2017 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
these are all just little scratches, not significant enough to damage the company. the stock has totally distanced itself from the ****-ups of the business-side. it's all story and believe.

as i see it, they will be missing their execution targets on the model 3 production. and when this sinks into the news, all these little stories like the grohmann ousting and the recall will be brought up again.
anyways, 10 to 15 years from now, tsla will be a prime case in business schools for mission creep, bad execution and investor exploitation.
Def agree, reading all the articles breaking down where Tesla went wrong will be almost annoying as all the people who were bulls saying they got out at 300
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04-29-2017 , 01:53 PM
If making videos, taking pre orders, and launching Easter eggs were a business model, there is zero doubt Tesla would be a trillion dollar company
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-29-2017 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
New boring concept video:
You're an engineering minded guy. Do you agree that this video is nuts/pure unadulterated bull**** to get idiots excited?

The economics of tunnels barely work with vast continual traffic flows (many cars/second). Does the Boring Company think they're going to work with single-car lifts and moving car guides? LOL.

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Semi teaser:
That's so dark and unclear it could easily be a Kukbot in front of a poster. Why would post this? It's ridiculous.
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04-29-2017 , 06:11 PM
lol at that video. Bravo for not pretending to be a legitimate company. Give the cult exactly what they want.
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04-29-2017 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
You're an engineering minded guy. Do you agree that this video is nuts/pure unadulterated bull**** to get idiots excited?

The economics of tunnels barely work with vast continual traffic flows (many cars/second). Does the Boring Company think they're going to work with single-car lifts and moving car guides? LOL.
I am not super happy that Musk is spending time on his Boring company. But then I admit that I don't know very much about the math of it. Maybe he can bring down the costs by an order of magnitude like he did with space travel. Not sure how big or profitable it would be even then. But I haven't done any calculations so I don't really know. At least he is trying and he likely has done much more math about it than me.

However it's not Tesla resources being spent but SpaceX and this new separate company with separate funding. So I don't think this affects my TSLA shares that much, it might even be positive the other company might bring attention to Tesla without spending Tesla resources.

Looking forward to hearing more analysis and seeing what happens. But I will not dismiss the idea entirely at this point like I am doing with hydrogen cars.
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04-29-2017 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
I am not super happy that Musk is spending time on his Boring company. But then I admit that I don't know very much about the math of it. Maybe he can bring down the costs by an order of magnitude like he did with space travel.
From what I understand (I couldn't give a crap about SpaceX as they haven't done anything interesting yet and won't for years), this is a false statement. Outrageously, hilariously, ridiculously, false.

From an article last month in the NYT:
Quote:
How Much Cheaper? We do not know. Ms. Shotwell, the SpaceX executive, has suggested launches with reused boosters could be discounted, to 30 percent off the usual $62 million price tag. SES asked for 50 percent off. Both SpaceX and SES are private companies, and they have not divulged the negotiated going rate, except to acknowledge there was a discount.
Mr. Musk has suggested that rocket launches could eventually be much cheaper since the cost of the rocket propellants are less than 1 percent of the full-price ticket for a launch. So, if a rocket could be simply refueled like a jetliner for another flight, the cost of space travel could drop to a fraction of what it is now.

But the stresses of spaceflight on reused boosters — like the rising mileage on a used car, sometimes called “pre-owned” in today’s parlance — are much greater. The economics will depend on how many times a booster can be flown, and how much the individual expense will be to refurbish the booster — and particularly the engines — each time.
So the people claiming the he HAS reduced space flight cost by an order of magnitude seem to be completely fooled by more Musk propaganda/memes. The guy is truly nerd-Trump, a genius at self promotion to credulous idiots or casual observers. He hasn't brought down space flight costs much at all that I can see (please correct if I'm wrong), let alone an order of magnitude. There's a belief that reliable usability - if everything goes absolutely perfectly and the best of assumptions pans out - could eventually bring it down by half an order of magnitude. But this is as yet undone, the cost of refurbishing are unknown, as are the risks.

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Not sure how big or profitable it would be even then. But I haven't done any calculations so I don't really know. At least he is trying and he likely has done much more math about it than me.
Tunneling is orders of magnitude more complicated and complex and uncontrollable than building rockets. You're dealing with a complex and untestable external medium. Space and air is known and knowable and unchanging, and what's more, space travel is a tiny non-commercially-viable pork barrel industry, hence it probably had room for disruption, unlike the car market or the solar market.

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However it's not Tesla resources being spent but SpaceX and this new separate company with separate funding. So I don't think this affects my TSLA shares that much, it might even be positive the other company might bring attention to Tesla without spending Tesla resources.
IMO it's making him look like a loon,which is not good for Tesla.

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Looking forward to hearing more analysis and seeing what happens. But I will not dismiss the idea entirely at this point like I am doing with hydrogen cars.
Ok. Always interesting to hear your thoughts.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 04-29-2017 at 07:30 PM.
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04-29-2017 , 10:02 PM
Oh and more hilarious news. Tesla have reactivated autonomous breaking after Consumer Reports downgraded them for their continuous lies and non-delivery of promised features that are standard on far smaller cars. The catch?
This is hilarious. Tesla are ahead of all other auto makers on autonomous driving according to the esteemed and highly intelligent gentlemen in this thread, yet 9 months after breaking up with MobileEye, they still haven't been able to get automatic braking - the most basic feature standard on far cheaper cars - at speeds over 28 miles an hour. And this for a company that's been happy to put out highly flawed software that swerves and brakes unnecessarily and acts dangerously, so their software must be in a shocking state if they refuse to release it.

At what point do the esteemed and highly intelligent gentlemen (I'm not allowed to say cucks any more) who claimed that Tesla was ahead of all other automakers on autonomous driving, admit that they were dead wrong and that I was completely correct?
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04-29-2017 , 11:04 PM
Elon Musk did not exactly revolutionize rocket technology (reusable boosters are far from being commercially ready or viable) but he did succeed in cutting a lot of overhead for NASA, much of it by undercutting Boeing's virtual monopoly with existing technologies and off the shelf parts from other adjacent industries.
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04-30-2017 , 06:50 AM
Keep in mind Musk is also replicating 1960s level technology for cargo. He's also utilizing proven cost cutting methods (relying on third party vendors to provide testing) which is laughable in virtually any field where safety is an issue. The "did" part was quite funny tho.

Also, space and air aren't unchanging. Air has a variety of issues with fluid dynamics that affect takeoffs/landings/etc and a variety of other elements that need to be carefully managed. Space is equally different wrt radiation/solar winds/etc. Tunneling may or may not be orders of magnitude more complex. (I've never worried about a plane destabilizing an entire downtown corridor.) But it certainly isn't for the reason provided.
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04-30-2017 , 07:04 AM
Regarding costs savings for SpaceX.

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How Much Cheaper? We do not know. Ms. Shotwell, the SpaceX executive, has suggested launches with reused boosters could be discounted, to 30 percent off the usual $62 million price tag.
Previous figures:
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SpaceX’s offering is dramatically more economical than ULA’s. It advertises its Falcon 9 rocket at a launch price of $62 million, compared with ULA’s “list prices” of anywhere from $164 million to $350 million for an Atlas V launch (the terms of any particular launch are typically not disclosed).
http://fortune.com/spacex-ula-lockhe...g-rocket-race/

Future figures:


Sorry if I used a bit of normative semantics in previous post.
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04-30-2017 , 07:18 AM
I'm shocked that a company intending to undercut a monopoly came in with a substantially cheaper product.

But really it speaks volumes for some of the things Musk can achieve (virtually unlimited capital raises, somehow ousting ULA from their vicegrip, outright security fraud with no recourse, etc). Guy is a wizard.
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04-30-2017 , 08:41 PM
Here is the complete ted talk where he says how he intend to get the costs down for Boring:
https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_...boring#t-38293
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04-30-2017 , 09:10 PM
Elon does not care about the cost of Boring tunnels for Earth. It's all just R&D for Mars tunnels and if he happens to find a way to make money here on Earth digging tunnels to help fund that R&D all the better.
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05-01-2017 , 10:58 AM
Rocket landing, semi being tested by Musk, 4 gigafactories, China legislating for BEV etc so it's no big surprise that we get a new ATH with high volume. Winds are picking up in shortville.
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05-01-2017 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
Rocket landing, semi being tested by Musk, 4 gigafactories, China legislating for BEV etc so it's no big surprise that we get a new ATH with high volume. Winds are picking up in shortville.
Everything in tech is basically hitting ATHs, has very little to do with any news from the weekend.
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05-01-2017 , 11:17 AM
Yeah, most of the big cap visible tech is up 1-5% today. Rocket landing probably helps though, there are a lot of heltoks in the world who think that somehow relates to building cars (if it did, Musk wouldn't be failing so badly at it, years behind his own schedule while burning huge sums of money).
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05-01-2017 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Fantastic. Hope you're selling at these highs, and not drinking the koolaid too much. Just remember, you could have gotten out at $277.
Bump
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05-01-2017 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I've called Tesla entries both long and short in this thread.


Some predictions:

Certain to hit $150 again within two years.
Buyouts make bankruptcy predictions tricky, but I'd say 80% chance of below a valuation of $10 billion within six years.

We're about to enter a period of stagnation over the next year. Model S demand seems very much down - look at their delivery numbers, inventory build, Norway sales, and the fact that they cut prices by $10K while keeping in a more expensive battery pack. Model 3 is a long way off, is certain to miss Musk's absurd production target, and will run into problems.

Model X is a wildcard. Gigafactory/"Tesla energy" is a total flop - it's a commodity product. But I'm sure there'll be hype around the gigafactory later this month.

Then what? They keep burning cash, missing targets, doing secondaries, and are going to have to spend a fortune to tool up for Model 3/keep SCTY afloat, which is a hungrier cash furnace than Tesla.
TSLA July 5, 2016 closing price - $213.98
TSLA currently - $324.75

Good track record here. Stagnation = ~50% gains?

Current market cap $52 B but sure, 80% chance it's below 10 B in next 6 5 years.

Can probably get some pretty sweet prices on $150 puts with only a year remaining on that guarantee.
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05-01-2017 , 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
TSLA July 5, 2016 closing price - $213.98
TSLA currently - $324.75
LOL - talk about premature.

You do realize that Tesla went down to $180 for months after I made this post, right? i didn't see you posting then. It only rallied after the huge Trump rally pulled up all large cap, high beta tech.



It's important to understand why things are doing what they're doing. Idiots see the price rise and assuming the Tesla magic/Musk genius as finally being recognized by the market, get excited, and even buy more. You will hold all the way down to $150, I'm sure.

People who aren't idiots know that this run is the result of shock market rally after Trump's election - the longest bull run in history - acting on a high beta, high short percentage stock.

When you understand that, you'll realize how precarious your position is, and that where Tesla is today is mostly market driven luck. The minute the market has a correction - we haven't had one in six months, this is longest and lowest volatility bull in stock market history - Tesla will crater.
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Good track record here. Stagnation = ~50% gains?
Relative to its high beta peers, it's gone nowhere.

I realize you and heltok are on top of the moon. That's the nature of these bubbles.
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Can probably get some pretty sweet prices on $150 puts with only a year remaining on that guarantee.
There's more money in playing news events around Tesla.
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