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Old 08-20-2013, 02:58 AM   #151
heltok
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pre...ar-ever-tested
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Palo Alto, CA — Independent testing by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has awarded the Tesla Model S a 5-star safety rating, not just overall, but in every subcategory without exception. Approximately one percent of all cars tested by the federal government achieve 5 stars across the board. NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars.

Of all vehicles tested, including every major make and model approved for sale in the United States, the Model S set a new record for the lowest likelihood of injury to occupants. While the Model S is a sedan, it also exceeded the safety score of all SUVs and minivans. This score takes into account the probability of injury from front, side, rear and rollover accidents.
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Old 08-20-2013, 12:27 PM   #152
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

there is this company making electronic delivery vans. Apparantly they are a big hit. You can buy another somewhat money losing microcap company that has 25% in this private company if you want.
http://www.smithelectric.com/

if you own tanfield with a 40 mill market cap you get 25% of smithelectric. But probably a -ev gamble.
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Old 08-23-2013, 04:30 PM   #153
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Thankfully I didn't notice this Tesla short until now after riding in one a few months ago. Going to sell some bitcoin in order to load up. If the share price doubles, I will also double my short position. ZOMG MARTINGALE

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Citron also notes that Tesla has sold 15,000 cars since it was founded, while General Motors (GM), in which Warren Buffet just increased his stake, sells 15,000 cars every two days. “Is it going to be easier for Telsa to close this gap or General Motors to adapt to a changing environment?” Citron asks. “Mr. Buffett has placed his bet.”
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowat...d=yahoobarrons
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...vitable-burst/
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/...-in-the-towel/
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
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Old 08-23-2013, 05:04 PM   #154
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I actually sold my long position today. I think the price is starting to get out of hand and I will look to take a short position from maybe $165 or $170 up.
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Old 08-25-2013, 01:39 PM   #155
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http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...e=RSS&irpc=932
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Old 08-25-2013, 04:19 PM   #156
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by homeboy604 View Post
This was released prior to Fridays trading began. TSLA still was up 3% for the day.

Forget electric cars, Musk has a frickin electric train!! Who can slow this thing down? I thought 120, then 140, now 160.
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Old 08-26-2013, 12:10 PM   #157
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

did anyone see this article? http://www.businessinsider.com/colle...killing-2013-8

what was surprising to me was how...candid (?) Musk was about his opinion on the stock price. am i reading into that too much?

any suggestions on how to safely structure a long-term bet against TSLA?
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Old 08-26-2013, 12:19 PM   #158
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Green Plastic View Post
did anyone see this article? http://www.businessinsider.com/colle...killing-2013-8

what was surprising to me was how...candid (?) Musk was about his opinion on the stock price. am i reading into that too much?

any suggestions on how to safely structure a long-term bet against TSLA?
He's pretty candid all the time. It's what is refreshing about him. That being said, he also is good at building hype. See for example the recent wording Tesla used to describe the safety testing and the resultant hand slap from the NHTSA.

Depends on what long term means to you. Certainly options are a way to limit your risk on a bet against. I haven't looked, but I'm guessing the premium (juice) is pretty high tho and it's hard to guess at what point the valuation adjusts (if it does).
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Old 08-26-2013, 01:26 PM   #159
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Good discussion on the tesla forum on the difficulty in getting the battery capacity for gen3 tesla.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showt...stimate/page28
Quote:
Elon Musk:
"For long term production growth, my single biggest concern is Li-Ion cell supply."
Quote:
"Analysts" on the Q2 call just had Elon's comments fly right by with absolutely no idea of the magnitude of the comment.

I hate to beat a dead horse but someone has to fund this whole exercise. Tesla may gain access to credit lines to fund receivables but it is going to take raw shareholder supplied $s to build the needed capacity (or someone to buy Tesla and fund it).


I just listened to the whole piece. It does not get any clearer than that. He flatly states that global existing capacity (if it all could be secured by Tesla) would only support a couple hundred K of G3 production. Elon goes on to say that if someone else does not build it Tesla will either facilitate it being built or build it themselves.

I see this as the single defining feature of TSLA valuation moving forward. All the rest of G3 can be done; it is not easy but others have shown that it can be done and Tesla is a capable competent company. The real magic is battery supply.
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Old 08-26-2013, 02:11 PM   #160
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Green Plastic View Post

what was surprising to me was how...candid (?) Musk was about his opinion on the stock price. am i reading into that too much?

any suggestions on how to safely structure a long-term bet against TSLA?
Nothing sounds more desperate than a CEO trying to defend the stock price. Musk has a way of phrasing things such that they sound self-deprecating and high-level when it really isn't, and this resonates with people. In reality he isn't saying anything that everyone doesn't already know. I have yet to see an interview with him where tougher and more interesting questions are asked. I've posted some of the questions I would love to ask Musk earlier in the thread.

The 5* rating has got to be a great boost for the company and Musk is a media darling that no one wants to cross - at least right now. It's hard to be against Tesla, and it's even harder to structure a bet against Tesla. Most people - including myself - aren't even against Tesla as much as they are against valuation of Tesla. But the option chain doesn't look that great to me and you're not the only bear looking for an entry point.
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Old 08-26-2013, 02:29 PM   #161
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I shorted a lot at 168 earlier today, and even more at 172. Tried this last week at 157 but exited pretty quick, holding this time for a while.
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Old 08-26-2013, 04:24 PM   #162
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

isnt shorting mostly about technical analysis anyway mostly. Its really obvious the stock was already pretty overvalued at 80$. The trick is to time it right, and ride down maybe like a 30% drop. Seems like one or two misses on earnings will trigger a downfall. if he exceeds his selling target next year by like 10000 cars the stock is still a very long way from being fairly valued, but it will probably not cause much of a drop. If he keeps satisfying the stockholders (and hes been doing that for a while now) the stock can stay very overvalued for quite some time.

shorting a stock purely because its overvalued seems like a risky (and potentially costly) proposition to me.
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Old 08-26-2013, 06:40 PM   #163
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I am pretty convinced TSLA is overvalued with respect to its real long term prospects.

My problem is, in the short term, there is no downside catalyst. The mass production model isn't due any time soon and, if anything, the Model S is oversubscribed and undersupplied (making it really hard to miss growth targets)
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Old 08-26-2013, 06:44 PM   #164
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Hitler is short Tesla:

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Old 08-26-2013, 07:49 PM   #165
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by grizy View Post
I am pretty convinced TSLA is overvalued with respect to its real long term prospects.

My problem is, in the short term, there is no downside catalyst. The mass production model isn't due any time soon and, if anything, the Model S is oversubscribed and undersupplied (making it really hard to miss growth targets)
This.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Plastic View Post
did anyone see this article? http://www.businessinsider.com/colle...killing-2013-8

what was surprising to me was how...candid (?) Musk was about his opinion on the stock price. am i reading into that too much?

any suggestions on how to safely structure a long-term bet against TSLA?
Shorting things that are over valued, even significantly is very difficult. Generally you do that need that catalyst that creates a time frame for your bet (which is different than longs because the holding costs). I think you would struggle to short TSLA just yet, but maybe in the future.

A way that I've heard explained to me to do this is to wait until there is genuinely bad news, a downtrend or whatever negative shift in sentiment. If you're shorting the Dow in 1999 at 9500, wait until it's gone up to 11,000 and returns to 9500 before getting short. This way, if done correctly you at least mitigate the "insanity could continue forever" risk.

Notable examples of this:

NFLX 2011 - Around September on an earnings release. Great short because clearly the shine had worn off and the absolutely insane valuation seemed likely to face reality. This wasn't my trade but I watched someone do it.

Shipping stocks (SSW, DSX, BALT) - Clear change in the fundamental supply of ships (related to emerging markets significantly increased demand for imports), the supply had increased so drastically that the price of shipping dropped negative. A situation you might expect some highly leveraged companies to become insolvent in. Thus when the trend down began you could pick several stocks that in theory could reasonably be expected to go to zero.

I guess the keys here:
-Extreme overvaluation
-Reason to believe that it's not just overvalued but that the floor could fall out
-The time is now

All things being equal, I would much prefer to be long a likely bubble with options than short all but the most extreme bubbles.
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Old 08-26-2013, 10:30 PM   #166
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Seems like just about everyone agrees the stock is currently overrated ... yet there continue to be more buyers than sellers. So ... who is buying the stock?
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Old 08-26-2013, 10:53 PM   #167
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by verneer View Post
Seems like just about everyone agrees the stock is currently overrated ... yet there continue to be more buyers than sellers. So ... who is buying the stock?
Shorts getting squeezed on the way up is a huge part of it. Additionally, 40% of all outstanding shares sit with elon and fidelity's institutional side (i.e. unrelated to its retail mutual fund side.) They just hold and never sell regardless of any price fluctuation.
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Old 08-26-2013, 11:11 PM   #168
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I'm sure there are a ton of people buying this on momentum and they've yet to see any red pnl. Once people see paper losses they'll reevaluate. I think if it retraces a decent amount it could instigate a sell off.
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Old 08-27-2013, 12:52 AM   #169
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

any chance the stock could become undervalued after they miss some targets and it drops big time?
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Old 08-27-2013, 02:22 PM   #170
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Grunch

No
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Old 08-27-2013, 04:19 PM   #171
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by verneer View Post
Seems like just about everyone agrees the stock is currently overrated ... yet there continue to be more buyers than sellers. So ... who is buying the stock?
People that have the money to buy the model s and then become true believers as owners?
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Old 08-27-2013, 05:06 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by verneer View Post
Seems like just about everyone agrees the stock is currently overrated ... yet there continue to be more buyers than sellers. So ... who is buying the stock?
Anyone who wanted a buffer from Syria+taper+debt limit news?

Or anyone who wanted to feel great today without shorting any other stock on the market?

Or anyone who believes in the tsla 20 billion market cap?

In b4 the Tesla buyback sends it to 900.
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Old 09-02-2013, 12:39 AM   #173
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1668242

They are deferring a loss of $19m per Model S? What are the details of this?
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Old 09-02-2013, 09:20 AM   #174
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

They came up with generous payment plans and guaranteed resale values and, according to most interpretations of GAAP and Seeking Alpha, did not fully recognize them.

Basically here is what's going on. If you are drinking the Tesla koolaid, you just laugh this off as a bridge gap (AMZN did something very similar writing off advertising as extraordinary charges to show operating income). Indeed, if Tesals hold value as well as some claim, Tesla's non-GAAP accounting may ultimately be correct.

If you don't buy that story, you think this will blow up in Tesla's face in... oh, 3 years, when they have to buy back old Teslas at significantly lower than market value.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:34 PM   #175
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I know basically nothing about this company, other than lots of people have tried to short it and gotten pretty hurt doing it. But I read something yesterday that stuck with me: trying to short Elon Musk is like pitching to Barry Bonds while he was on the juice. The guy's a total wizard, and while shorting TSLA might be right eventually, you could absolutely get your face ripped off in the meantime. (Counterpoint is SCTY, but since Musk is just the Chairman of that pile of **** company rather than founder/CEO, I don't think the same logic applies)

The valuation is pricing in this company transforming the world. Which might be optimistic. But maybe not! I'm taking no position, but frankly I wish I had the balls to buy it.
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