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Old 08-11-2013, 09:48 AM   #126
TomCollins
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
First, kind of. Second, the valuation is pure insanity even if you are drinking all the kool aid.
Just being profitable is a huge difference from .COM Boom. There is a plan, there is execution. Now valuation may be insanity, I'll give you that. It's insane when you look at the present, maybe not as insane if the long term plan works out. That's a big if, though.
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Old 08-11-2013, 09:55 AM   #127
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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True, i would guess $80k tesla owners would be more likely to do it due to "being green" or "being early adapters/supporters in advancing technology".


Yeah, big variable.
You are missing why people are buying Teslas. This isn't just about being green. It's become a huge status symbol and is a legit good car. Those who are buying Priuses and Leafs and all are the ones that will have the environmental hardon. The people buying the Teslas sure might want to express that to the world, but it's become much more of just a high-end car than an unpractical environmentalists dream. If you are paying 80k for one of these cars, chances are your time is more valuable than "supporting the technology" by waiting to save a few bucks on electricity. They likely already have solar powered electricity at their home anyway if they really care that much about the environment (either through panels or paying for that service).
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Old 08-12-2013, 12:01 PM   #128
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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how big of a factor is elon to the hype? i see him regularly on various media, from late night shows to policy interviews, he seems like an extremely intelligent guy and he has a fantastic relationship with the media
Pretty major for the average investor. Stuff like this is huge for image.
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Old 08-12-2013, 01:59 PM   #129
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Hyperloop announcement today at 1:30 p.m PDT. Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57598143-76/elon-musk-pulled-an-all-nighter-to-wrap-together-hyperloop-announcement/
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Old 08-12-2013, 04:18 PM   #130
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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TSLA prolly pop 15$ on the news that he will have the hyperloop ready by 2040. But seriously, big chunk of TSLA stock ends its lock up period Thursday. Maybe I should have started this thread now instead of 3 weeks ago.
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Old 08-12-2013, 04:47 PM   #131
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Elon has posted the hyperloop design on the Tesla Motors Blog:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/hyperloop

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682841/h...will-look-like

A pretty decent summary of the proposal.

Last edited by thenewsavman; 08-12-2013 at 05:12 PM. Reason: summary link
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Old 08-12-2013, 05:18 PM   #132
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

They're saying a one way ticket is $20 plus operating cost which sounds unbelievable.
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Old 08-12-2013, 05:34 PM   #133
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Elon has posted the hyperloop design on the Tesla Motors Blog:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/hyperloop

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682841/h...will-look-like

A pretty decent summary of the proposal.
Very cool. I hope Tesla gets to do something great out of this.
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Old 08-12-2013, 05:59 PM   #134
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Relevant comment on reddit:
One very interesting bit: it uses the same type of motor technology as the Tesla S (just in a different configuration) placed every 70 miles. Guess what that means?

Whatever technology you're using to power those motors can also be tapped into to create a charging station for your Tesla every 70 (or less) miles, right along the highway. Get the state/feds to fund the construction, then your private company taps into the infrastructure to develop electric "filling stations." As more Hyperloops are built, a nationwide network of electric filling stations is automatically created without a private company having to foot the bill for infrastructure development.

and from his press conference today:
Putting solar panels on the entire Hyperloop tube would generate too much power, Musk says. "You'd have to dump the power somewhere."
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Old 08-12-2013, 06:26 PM   #135
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Anyone seen any analysis from people qualified to comment on the proposal beyond saying 'that would be really cool?'
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Old 08-12-2013, 06:40 PM   #136
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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You are missing why people are buying Teslas. This isn't just about being green. It's become a huge status symbol and is a legit good car. Those who are buying Priuses and Leafs and all are the ones that will have the environmental hardon. The people buying the Teslas sure might want to express that to the world, but it's become much more of just a high-end car than an unpractical environmentalists dream. If you are paying 80k for one of these cars, chances are your time is more valuable than "supporting the technology" by waiting to save a few bucks on electricity. They likely already have solar powered electricity at their home anyway if they really care that much about the environment (either through panels or paying for that service).
Btw, my comment was in relation to why they would be willing to do relatively inconvenient 20 minute charging occasionally on a 80k car. I agree, most user do most of their charging at home. The coolness factor combined with it being a really well made car is why people are buying it in the first place.
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Old 08-12-2013, 06:57 PM   #137
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Anyone seen any analysis from people qualified to comment on the proposal beyond saying 'that would be really cool?'
Couldn't find anything. I'm sort expecting it to get shot down

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Originally Posted by Cuban B View Post
Btw, my comment was in relation to why they would be willing to do relatively inconvenient 20 minute charging occasionally on a 80k car. I agree, most user do most of their charging at home. The coolness factor combined with it being a really well made car is why people are buying it in the first place.
One thing that I think is important to note is that most households that own a $80,000 car, own more than one car. The 170 mile range is fine for day to day use, but for longer trips you'd just take the other car.
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Old 08-12-2013, 09:09 PM   #138
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Anyone seen any analysis from people qualified to comment on the proposal beyond saying 'that would be really cool?'
so far, all i've seen:
Quote:
So, science, or science fiction? About a dozen people at Tesla and SpaceX have helped Musk with the design and checked the physics behind the Hyperloop. I briefed Martin Simon, a professor of physics at UCLA, on some of the Hyperloop details, and he declared it feasible from a technological standpoint: “It does sound like it’s all done with known technology. It’s not like he’s counting on something brand new to be invented.”

Simon points out that the acceleration methods proposed by Musk are used at amusement parks to get a roller coaster going. Other companies have looked at these techniques for passenger and freight vehicles. What sets the Hyperloop apart, though, is the use of the air cushion to levitate the pods. “He has separated the air cushion and the linear induction drive, and that seems new,” Simon says, adding, “It would be cool if they had transparent tubes.”
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Old 08-12-2013, 11:05 PM   #139
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Anyone seen any analysis from people qualified to comment on the proposal beyond saying 'that would be really cool?'
Aside from the one already mentioned itt, no. I am sure several qualified people will weigh in over the coming weeks/months and improvements will be made and flaws exposed. I for one am looking forward to reading some analysis.
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Old 08-12-2013, 11:31 PM   #140
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Anyone seen any analysis from people qualified to comment on the proposal beyond saying 'that would be really cool?'
forbes made a pretty good summary/analysis of the key points (at least the financials)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahel...rloop-himself/

i know you are very bearish on his companies but he's a breath of fresh air in silicon valley where everyone is rehashing the same damn social media garbage like instagram
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Old 08-13-2013, 01:13 AM   #141
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Guys if you are thinking of shorting Tesla:

1. Look at Teslas products compared to competitors (EVs).
2. Read Tesla's Q2 report.
3. Think of how a $35k 200 mile EV would change the society, as a whole (oil demand).
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Old 08-13-2013, 08:59 PM   #142
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Guys if you are thinking of shorting Tesla:

1. Look at Teslas products compared to competitors (EVs).
2. Read Tesla's Q2 report.
3. Think of how a $35k 200 mile EV would change the society, as a whole (oil demand).
We already know you like it. We all like the company and the concept. It is not going to go up by you encouraging people to buy.

What you should do: Buy and hold. You think its fundamentals will catch up to and surpass its valuation. That will take time. The Q2 report wasn't anything amazing considering the valuation. You should be hoping that people sell or short-sell it so you can buy it at better prices. Encourage people to short it instead of being a cheerleader.

Also read Tesla's Q2 report.
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:11 AM   #143
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

That company is just ridiculous how well it has perform
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Old 08-14-2013, 05:17 AM   #144
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

it amazes me that people want to buy in on this dream when there are way cheaper companies that are better then tesla and have proven themselves. Also lol at then rationalizing buying it at any valuation.

Not saying tesla sucks, but they do have to do basicly amazing to live up to the dream. And then you maybe double your money lol.
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Old 08-14-2013, 12:57 PM   #145
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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it amazes me that people want to buy in on this dream when there are way cheaper companies that are better then tesla and have proven themselves. Also lol at then rationalizing buying it at any valuation.

Not saying tesla sucks, but they do have to do basicly amazing to live up to the dream. And then you maybe double your money lol.
Most of the mindless tsla bulls aren't really grasping the concept of valuation. Their thought process is simply: Telsa is a really great company so it's probably great investment. The idea of a company being over/undervalued is a level above them.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:34 PM   #146
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Most of the mindless tsla bulls aren't really grasping the concept of valuation. Their thought process is simply: Telsa is a really great company so it's probably great investment. The idea of a company being over/undervalued is a level above them.
what is your explanation for the present stock price then? and future prediction?
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Old 08-14-2013, 10:55 PM   #147
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Couldn't find anything. I'm sort expecting it to get shot down



One thing that I think is important to note is that most households that own a $80,000 car, own more than one car. The 170 mile range is fine for day to day use, but for longer trips you'd just take the other car.
If you are taking a long road trip, it really isn't that big a deal to stop that often. Grab a bite to eat, stretch your legs, etc... I am a fan of powering through it and stopping as little as possible, but it's not awful to stop 20 minutes every 2.5 hours. I just don't see people driving to a charging station to recharge it when they could just charge it at home overnight. When there are no better options, sure, it's worth it.
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Old 08-15-2013, 03:38 AM   #148
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

After what I have read from Tesla Model S owners, most people very soon find going to the gas station a bit weird and scary. Strange people go to gas stations, better to be home and safe...
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Old 08-15-2013, 07:50 AM   #149
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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what is your explanation for the present stock price then? and future prediction?
they barely made any money, are heavily in debt with little equity. Yet the market values them at almost 18 billion. So they need to make north of like 10-12 billion$ (v rough estimate) the next 5-10 years for this valuation to be reasonable. They wont do that with a luxury car as that market is too small. So they need to mass produce a cheaper car, which they havent even proven yet.
If they do make one succesfully for cheap, they need to sell it in very large numbers and do much better then all the other car companies, to not get outcompeted. So there are already two pretty big what if's here. And IF they do all that, then you maybe double your money in the next 5-10 years, which comes down to like a 10-20 % return on your money. And this is only in some super optimistic and pretty unlikely best case scenario.

So to sum it up, you MIGHT double your money if they:
1: come up with new tech to mass produce a cheap car cheaply, because lets be honest, the tech isnt there yet to do this now.
and 2: They then have to sell that car in big numbers and not get outcompeted if their competitors also have that tech. Pretty ***** big what ifs for very little upside imo.

Also not saying they will go broke here, but just that they are super overvalued for what they are, a gimmicky luxury car company. But most people are in this to speculate i guess, and sell it to the next sucker. But the stock price has to go down, unless they very soon show a really convincing way they will mass produce an electric car that will be just as good or better and cheaper (in use and price) then current cars, and then competition.
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Old 08-15-2013, 08:11 AM   #150
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by chipchip View Post
they barely made any money, are heavily in debt with little equity. Yet the market values them at almost 18 billion. So they need to make north of like 10-12 billion$ (v rough estimate) the next 5-10 years for this valuation to be reasonable. They wont do that with a luxury car as that market is too small. So they need to mass produce a cheaper car, which they havent even proven yet.
If they do make one succesfully for cheap, they need to sell it in very large numbers and do much better then all the other car companies, to not get outcompeted. So there are already two pretty big what if's here. And IF they do all that, then you maybe double your money in the next 5-10 years, which comes down to like a 10-20 % return on your money. And this is only in some super optimistic and pretty unlikely best case scenario.

So to sum it up, you MIGHT double your money if they:
1: come up with new tech to mass produce a cheap car cheaply, because lets be honest, the tech isnt there yet to do this now.
and 2: They then have to sell that car in big numbers and not get outcompeted if their competitors also have that tech. Pretty ***** big what ifs for very little upside imo.

Also not saying they will go broke here, but just that they are super overvalued for what they are, a gimmicky luxury car company. But most people are in this to speculate i guess, and sell it to the next sucker. But the stock price has to go down, unless they very soon show a really convincing way they will mass produce an electric car that will be just as good or better and cheaper (in use and price) then current cars, and then competition.
But the cars are electric?
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