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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

10-20-2016 , 10:17 AM
They are activating it December 2016...

Quote:
Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via an over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval.
I assume the regulatory approval is the key point that causes this backtrack. What an incredible spin, they're waiting 2 months to be sure it works properly and as intended. They'll collect data with the few thousand cars they're producing in the time period.

And I'm not sure if you understand that every Tesla with the regular autopilot will keep the autopilot. So how in the world is this a backtrack?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 03:36 PM
Amazon.bomb
Investors are beginning to realize that this storybook stock has problems


Unfortunately for Bezos, Amazon is now entering a stage in which investors will be less willing to rely on his charisma and more demanding of answers to tough questions like, when will this company actually turn a profit? And how will Amazon triumph over a slew of new competitors who have deep pockets and new technologies?
...
Amazon last year posted a loss of $125 million on revenues of $610 million. And in this year's first quarter it got even worse, as the company posted a loss of $61.7 million on revenues of $293.6 million.
...
Against this backdrop, Amazon is looking more and more like a traditional retailer, complete with an expensive network of warehouses loaded down with inventory. So far this year, Amazon has bought two warehouses in Kentucky and signed leases for facilities in Nevada and Kansas, adding to its two existing sites in Seattle and Delaware. In other words, Amazon is buying a lot of costly bricks and mortar, the very stuff that is supposedly bloating costs at traditional retailers.
...
"Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no contest," declares Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Trend Report. "Wal-Mart has resources Amazon can't even dream about."

...
In this tough environment, it probably shouldn't be surprising that Amazon is losing so much money. In fact, the company had negative operating margins of about 10% in the first quarter, meaning it spent $1.10 to bring in each $1 of revenues. And results are expected to get worse in the second quarter, when operating margins should be a negative 23% as the company raises its spending on advertising and warehouses dramatically, says Sara Zeilstra, consumer e-commerce analyst at Warburg Dillon Read. She has a "hold" rating on the stock.

Relevant.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
and yet the EXISTING autopilot's features - nearly all of them - are being near completely turned off in new cars until they're turned back on at some unspecified date?
This is factually wrong by the way. AP 1 is not being turned off or changed in cars already on the road. The new AP 2 enhanced driver assist will be activated on new production cars in 2-3 months, which is essentially the same way they did AP 1. Included the hardware and activated after a few months of finishing software with additional in the field data. Tesla had to announce new hardware in this fashion, if they just included 8 cameras in new cars and said nothing it would be widely reported within days and they would have to come out and announce it anyway.

Last edited by Cuban B; 10-21-2016 at 03:46 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuban B
Amazon.bomb
Investors are beginning to realize that this storybook stock has problems


Unfortunately for Bezos, Amazon is now entering a stage in which investors will be less willing to rely on his charisma and more demanding of answers to tough questions like, when will this company actually turn a profit? And how will Amazon triumph over a slew of new competitors who have deep pockets and new technologies?
...
Amazon last year posted a loss of $125 million on revenues of $610 million. And in this year's first quarter it got even worse, as the company posted a loss of $61.7 million on revenues of $293.6 million.
...
Against this backdrop, Amazon is looking more and more like a traditional retailer, complete with an expensive network of warehouses loaded down with inventory. So far this year, Amazon has bought two warehouses in Kentucky and signed leases for facilities in Nevada and Kansas, adding to its two existing sites in Seattle and Delaware. In other words, Amazon is buying a lot of costly bricks and mortar, the very stuff that is supposedly bloating costs at traditional retailers.
...
"Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no contest," declares Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Trend Report. "Wal-Mart has resources Amazon can't even dream about."

...
In this tough environment, it probably shouldn't be surprising that Amazon is losing so much money. In fact, the company had negative operating margins of about 10% in the first quarter, meaning it spent $1.10 to bring in each $1 of revenues. And results are expected to get worse in the second quarter, when operating margins should be a negative 23% as the company raises its spending on advertising and warehouses dramatically, says Sara Zeilstra, consumer e-commerce analyst at Warburg Dillon Read. She has a "hold" rating on the stock.

Relevant.
Seems like a horrific hot take
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
Seems like a horrific hot take
I think you mean the same dumb hot takes that are being foisted on Tesla show a striking resemblance to the dumb ass short sighted hot takes that were thrown at Amazon for several years early on.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 05:49 PM
Am now realizing that article was probably from the distant past. Makes sense now.

There is no doubt TS is delusional in his hatred for Tesla's tech.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-21-2016 , 06:57 PM
10-26-2016 , 04:13 PM
Boom!

EPS $0.14, Rev 2.3B. Adjusted EPS $0.71
Gross margin 27% per car sold.

edit - added to my position before market close today
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-26-2016 , 04:21 PM
FCF positive $176M

Guidance 4Q deliveries > 25K

Guiding for GAAP profitability in Q4 as well.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-26-2016 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
Am now realizing that article was probably from the distant past. Makes sense now.

There is no doubt TS is delusional in his hatred for Tesla's tech.
It seems like he is unwilling to take any news as good news. He is so anti Tesla, that it doesn't matter what happens he will always view everything in a negative light.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-26-2016 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Quote:
and yet the EXISTING autopilot's features - nearly all of them - are being near completely turned off in new cars until they're turned back on at some unspecified date?
This is factually wrong by the way. AP 1 is not being turned off or changed in cars already on the road.
lol?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
Am now realizing that article was probably from the distant past. Makes sense now.

There is no doubt TS is delusional in his hatred for Tesla's tech.
Who hates "tech"? What a weird idea. My position is pretty simple:

- Tesla is a flawed business model competing in a cutthroat industry for which it lacks the scale and skill and capital. If you think retail is anything like making cars, lol.
- Its current business model (high end luxury with bells and whistles and cool stuff, sold at a loss) cannot scale to the low end, and has limited growth potential.
- It has no price advantage - in fact it has a large disadvantage vs the majors
- Lower end is price-dependant. These aren't $700 iPhones, which is one paycheck, or subsidized by the carrier. They're several years of saving for the average salary. The highe end market where you can make a nice car is only so large, then the features and "wow" go to crap on the lower end, which is about cost cutting, lower quality, and compromises.
- Musk is a charlatan who many have argued has basically committed securities fraud at this point.
- Musk's actions, where he bills himself as being the great hero of mankind, will have zero difference on the widespread adoption of electric cars. That's determined by price relative to ICE, and Musk has nothing to do with it.
- It's already priced as if it's making 3 million cars/year with 10% profit (cf. Ford). You ain't getting value here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
It seems like he is unwilling to take any news as good news. He is so anti Tesla, that it doesn't matter what happens he will always view everything in a negative light.
There are several spots in this thread where I recommended getting long (and was correct). That's the complete opposite of your claim.

Anyway, the stock is untradable at the moment thanks to the SolarCity fraud/insider payoff. It doesn't run like it normally does up or down

Last edited by ToothSayer; 10-26-2016 at 05:12 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-26-2016 , 06:55 PM
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29.4% GAAP Automotive Gross Margin.
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"Machine that... designs... the machine"
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"Plan for Model 3 does not require any capital raise, at all."
Also speculates that Solar City will be at least neutral or cash contributor in 4th Quarter.
"Things are looking good."
"Probably won't do a capital raise, even in Qtr 1."
Quote:
"There are skeptics out there, and I suggest they don't bet against us."
Model 3 production Line Layout complete:
https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/tesla...ut-subsystems/

$3.1B to play with.

Even I was positively surprised.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-27-2016 , 11:37 PM
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Originally Posted by heltok
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"Machine that... designs... the machine"
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"Plan for Model 3 does not require any capital raise, at all."
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Also speculates that Solar City will be at least neutral or cash contributor in 4th Quarter.
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"Probably won't do a capital raise, even in Qtr 1."
Even I was positively surprised.
Just incredible statements. Even more incredible that they're believed. Musk is basically Trump for techheads.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-28-2016 , 03:32 AM
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Originally Posted by heltok
Finally, we note that starting in Q3, our quarterly financial releases will no longer include non-GAAP revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees. We will, however, continue to provide additional supplemental information to investors to provide insights into our business.
Love Elon.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-28-2016 , 06:57 PM
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre....23473/page-76
Quote:
Confounding the Experts

Here's an absolutely fascinating illustration of how Tesla has utterly confounded even the so-called investing experts.

Kevin O'Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank, opining that Tesla will fall due to gravity eventually, because --

"Tesla makes ONE thing. A car."

O’Leary: Gravity will strike Tesla eventually

Absolutely stunning. This implies that he either stopped listening or has no concept of Tesla's long-term vision, nor is he apparently aware of any impending disruptions to the car / transportation / driving / energy industries.

And, if you listen to Bears or doubters with any frequency, arguments reappear over and over. A non-scientific sampling:

1. Elon is a con-man. A modern-day PT Barnum. (the red Model 3 was made of wood, the self-driving video had camera cuts, etc)
2. Tesla loses money on every car sold.
3. Tesla made money but <fill-in-the-blanks> (i.e. cooked the books, didn't pay vendors, cashed in EV credits, etc)
4. Tesla won't tell us how many Model 3 orders they have. They're clearly dropping.
5. Self-driving cars will never happen.
6. Self-driving cars are not achievable with <fill-in-the blank> (i.e. Neural Networks, Camera/Radar, etc)
7. What happens if a self-driving car encounters a potential head-on collision, and all the escape routes are blocked? One sidewalk contains a family singing Christmas carols, and the other sidewalk contains a child on a tricycle carrying a basket full of puppies. How does it know what to do???

I suspect when you combine:

1. New technology
2. The implication of future disruption

With:

1. Bold claims
2. Losses due to expansion
3. Production issues
4. Mis-steps

That some people literally lose their minds. It's an amazing dichotomy.
Also Uber making flying taxis:
http://uber.com/elevate.pdf
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-28-2016 , 07:12 PM
Solid #HOTTAKE. That is TS level.

There should be a containment thread for just outright insane posts. But many people here think Google has a search moat, so here we are.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-28-2016 , 09:55 PM
Tesla's new roof:
http://www.solarcity.com/residential/solar-roof

Quote:
Incredible! Beautiful roofs! I'm sure the panels aren't as efficient as a standard panel, but because the entire roof is covered, they don't need to be. Given the fact that these roofs are supposed to cost less than a standard roof + utility power, this is a no brainer. You would have to be an idiot to ever buy a standard roof again! How do we short standard roof tile manufacturers on Monday? They are going to have tons of inventory nobody wants now. I can really see that 1T valuation now. Thank you Elon!!!
:P

Last edited by heltok; 10-28-2016 at 10:04 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 12:10 AM
5 months ago

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This is so far from even the beginning of autonomous driving research, let alone today's state of the art. Their software is a joke. There are enough incidents now that show how juvenile and simplistic their software is.

And yet people in this thread (and Tesla PR) believe that they're ahead of others. They are clearly far behind. Hundreds of test cars from a number of manufacturers are successfully self driving around complex inner city traffic. This is 5+ years ahead of anything that Tesla can do, even if they had the research budget to do it.

And finally, the idea that Tesla is learning anything from the uploaded data on their current set of sensors is just farcical. NVidia have deep learning, ultra high bandwidth, multi camera solutions driven by Drive PX2 that is light years ahead of Tesla. It's in a different class. Tesla have zero advantage in autonomous driving and are in fact far, far behind.

That's all. The fact that smart people are disagreeing with me on something that's obvious and correct is just mind blowing. You've been fooled by PR, people.
Not sure how you think I have incorrectly assessed your hatred for Tesla's technology.

Your call on Tesla being 5+ years out from successfully navigating inner city traffic seems at risk with ~4.5 year left to go. Congrats.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
5 months ago



Not sure how you think I have incorrectly assessed your hatred for Tesla's technology

Your call on Tesla being 5+ years out from successfully navigating inner city traffic seems at risk with ~4.5 year left to go. Congrats.
Don't you think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself here? The only thing Tesla has done is put an upgraded sensor set on their cars, and announced they're going to start grabbing data. It's like you think they've nearly solved inner city driving by putting a sensor set on their car. It's weird. They put the sensor set on to upgrade their woefully inadequate system that resulted in someone being DECAPITATED because their software and hardware couldn't spot a huge truck right in front of it with many seconds of warning.

Your post is the perfect example of how Musk chumps morons by promising the future just around the corner with some meaningless gesture, and then pushing it out further and further. He's done that for over five years already - every deadline and projection missed, often by years. Every plan missed. But by the time has come around to measure that deadline and notice it's a year late, he's announced the Next Big Thing that gets chump excited. As an example:

Quote:
Tesla's new roof:
What happened to the PowerWall and its huge demand/preorders?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
What happened to the PowerWall and its huge demand/preorders?
Here is one figure they released two days ago:

Quote:
https://www.tesla.com/sv_SE/blog/gai...esla-powerpack

Gaining Momentum with Tesla Powerpack

The Tesla Team 27 oktober 2016
Ahead of tomorrow’s solar roof and Powerwall announcement, we wanted to provide some exciting updates on our commercial and utility energy product, Tesla Powerpack.

This September we began shipping version 2 of our Powerpack system. With a new energy module and power electronics, Powerpack 2 provides twice the energy density and a more seamless integration into multiple levels of the grid. Powerpack 2 is also now matched with a new inverter, designed by Tesla and manufactured at the Gigafactory. It is the lowest cost, highest efficiency and highest power density utility-scale inverter on the market. It also significantly simplifies the installation process of the entire Powerpack system by integrating a number of previously independent components into the inverter itself.

The Tesla inverter paired with the Powerpack 2 allows storage to be available to the utility industry at price points and with functionality previously unknown. The combined system is now a cost-competitive alternative to other traditional utility infrastructure solutions such as building larger substations, bigger wires and more power plants. Furthermore, the Powerpack system interface and software controls give utilities and grid operators high fidelity control, allowing for better energy management and dispatch, which improves grid performance, efficiency and reliability at a low cost.

The benefits of this pairing are already being seen in projects such as Southern California Edison’s Mira Loma substation and the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative. The Powerpack systems for these two projects are being built now at our Gigafactory and, when deployed later this year, will be the two largest lithium ion battery storage installations in the world.

And this is just the beginning. To date, nearly 300 MWh of Tesla batteries have been deployed in 18 countries, and we anticipate the impact and growth rate of energy products around the world to be far greater than that of electric vehicles alone. As we continue to innovate, scale and reduce costs of commercial and grid-scale systems, we will significantly accelerate the adoption of renewable energy sources to power our world, ultimately getting us to 100% renewable energy grids.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 02:38 AM
Thanks for that. So a total dud, then. Here are the claims:

Tesla's battery grabbed $800 million in its first week
Tesla announces 38,000 preorders for PowerWall
May 26, 2015:
Quote:
During Tesla's earnings call, CEO Elon Musk just announced that the company has so far taken 38,000 reservations for its Powerwall home battery. "The response has been overwhelming. Like, crazy," Musk said. He went on to describe the reception to Tesla Energy's introduction as "crazy off the hook." Tesla has also tallied 2,500 reservations for the PowerPack. Musk said this actually equates to more like 25,000 since reservations averaged around 10 Powerpacks each. "The volume of demand here has just been staggering," he said. "It really feels like, man, the stationary storage demand is just nutty. Like, worldwide, it’s just crazy."

Those are strong numbers for Tesla's latest venture, and Musk sounds downright giddy. But the early success also means that some customers will be dealing with an extended wait. "There’s no way we can possibly satisfy this demand this year," Musk admitted. "We’re basically sold out through the first half of next year."
Quote:
As of May 2015, Tesla Powerwall had already sold out through to the middle of 2016.[31][32] Reservations within the first few weeks were over 50,000 units for the Powerwall (US$179 million), and 25,000 units for the Powerpack (US$625 million),[11] therefore combined orders of US$800 million.[33]
Quote:
To date, nearly 300 MWh of Tesla batteries have been deployed in 18 countries
We're near the end of 2016, beyond the point where Tesla said they'd be. Even taking Tesla's own numbers and ignoring the weasel-worded "nearly", Tesla has fulfilled a mere $150 million in orders, at no profit. This is a mere 18% of what they claimed was initial demand, 3 months after they claimed that demand would be filled, with another full 1.3 years of demand/orders on top of initial.

See what I'm getting at? Total bull**** headlines building huge excitement (the clown Mihkel05 got fever-brained enough around this time to call them an "energy company"). These huge claims have panned out to a mere 18% of claimed order fill, even given the extra time.

I repeat again: does anyone want to put money down that Musk will meet his "full autonomy" claims by the end of 2017?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 02:58 AM
Perspective
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Considering there were only like 220 MWh of energy storage projects installed in the US in 2015, producing 300 MWh of your first product without having even finished your factory is pretty good.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I repeat again: does anyone want to put money down that Musk will meet his "full autonomy" claims by the end of 2017?
Define the bet and odds. I might be willing to bet, could even consider putting up the prediction market for this if you are interested for 1btc. But specifying it might be tricky.

Last edited by heltok; 10-29-2016 at 03:09 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-29-2016 , 10:28 AM
Stop posturing for dinner money. It is obvious that it won't be ready for even federal and state highways.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
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