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Old 07-22-2013, 08:21 AM   #26
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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You had me scared for a moment there saying the borrowing cost is >10%. Just checked, it is at 0.6% and I don't think it rose above 2% during the past 2 months.
OK, they must have come down a lot, which is odd with 30% of the float shorted. Everything I read said borrowing costs were 30-80% from March to May. I don't get it. Here is what Reuters said two months ago:

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On the other hand, those confident the stock is way overvalued are short about 17 percent of Tesla shares - even at an annualized borrowing cost of about 30 percent, or 100 times the borrowing cost of an average stock, according to Markit.
The short percentage has since gone up. Anyone getting in at 90-100 in late May (most of the shorts) were paying those costs unless their broker was extra kind.

If you can short TSLA for 0.6%/year, have the money and keep buying up, and have the opportunity to sell when you choose, then shorting is a good trade IMO. It's priced to perfection and then some for a tech/company which has to have at least 20% chance of major doubts showing in the next year.

Still, I think the pro trade is to wait for news, predict how the market will react to the news and ride it down. TSLA is such a story stock that short term investor reaction to news isn't hard to gauge (I did just that with the Goldman downgrade).

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In retrospect, I probably acted too soon and should have waited for a spike before initiating the short, especially spikes caused by stock pumping type research reports which reveal absolutely no new information to the public except to get the retail investors excited.
I think there is non trivial chance that Tesla becomes a $200 billion market cap company. Multiple things come together to make that possible. There's no way I own the stock, but while that chance exists and is confirmed by growing production/orders, and nothing obvious standing in its way, I don't see how the positivity squeezes out to send it back to $70. The longer it churns at high prices and the loss of profit fear subsides, the harder it gets to go back to $70 as well.
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Old 07-22-2013, 10:59 AM   #27
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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The longer it churns at high prices and the loss of profit fear subsides, the harder it gets to go back to $70 as well.
Just to add to this: I looked at the volume and about 8% (!!) of the float, or a billion dollars, gets traded per day. That's very, very high, many multiples of most stocks. In 2-3 weeks at a flat level all the profit fear is worked out and you're left with overly optimistic long term speculators, irrational value buyers, and a large number of shorts. You can see why the stock is so very buoyant.

That's not to say that it won't tank on bad news, but it definitely reduces the short EV.
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:09 AM   #28
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Those arguments are a plus for a short imo
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:36 AM   #29
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Those arguments are a plus for a short imo
+1.

moving 8% of float per day with so many speculators pumping up means that as soon as it even calms down everyone will catch their breath and say "wtf am i doing in this! i got in bc its superman and its not flying anymore!". fundementals matter more when its less of a story/big move stock and that isnt very good for tsla. unless im missing something.

fwiw, driving today i saw a tesla car on the road. it was definitely the most baller looking car on the highway by far.
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:42 AM   #30
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

You guys are both completely wrong about this. I wrote down a bunch of reasons and then deleted them, you can figure it out yourself. It has to do with the amount of profit sitting in each account vs the stock's long term story. High churn obviously increases volatility though.
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:52 AM   #31
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I'm also thinking a long the same lines dude. Everyone's pnl is flying and they're just speculating with this money. People taking totally speculative positions don't like to see any red. If tsla starts to sell off people aren't going to be holding for the long haul. This name isn't attracting money with that mentality.
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Old 07-22-2013, 03:33 PM   #32
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I agree with high volume equals more speculators that will run as soon as the momentum is gone.

However, the recent inclusion into NASDAQ 100 forces many mutual funds/pensions/ETFs to hold TSLA as a long term investment which provides a firm support for the stock.

As for the borrowing cost, I think it was probably insanely high back in march-may, then went down around May and stayed down till now.
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Old 07-22-2013, 03:49 PM   #33
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Almost reached its all time high today, which I consider to be $130 (as this was held for at least a couple of hours). As I stated, you dont want to short this stock. There are buyers out there who will pay whatever for the share right now.

Also, if Q2 report is bad the future is still Tesla's. If the Q2 report i good, then the sky is the limit.
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Old 07-22-2013, 10:09 PM   #34
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Old 07-23-2013, 06:18 AM   #35
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Pretty much sums it up I think.
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Old 07-23-2013, 06:29 AM   #36
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?



Want!
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Old 07-26-2013, 11:28 AM   #37
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Market is down, Tesla is up. This is exactly why I own shares.
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Old 07-26-2013, 12:13 PM   #38
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

265 EPA rated range is a deal breaker.
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Old 07-26-2013, 06:54 PM   #39
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

is there any anecdotal evidence that sales are great, like long waiting lists for teslas ect?
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Old 07-26-2013, 07:15 PM   #40
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Most I've heard is an analysis based on sequential VINs (Vehicle Identification Numbers) which puts production well ahead of expectations. I read a really detailed analysis on this which I can't find, this is the closest.

Other data, which I tend to believe less, disagrees.
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Old 07-26-2013, 07:22 PM   #41
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

ya I was just reading the VIN thread on teslas forums. Seems like should come in between 5500 and 5800 for the quarter.

maybe time to buy a call and play for a short squeeze
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Old 07-27-2013, 04:58 AM   #42
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Straddle a good option for this earnings announcement?
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Old 07-28-2013, 01:30 PM   #43
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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For me the Leaf feels like a Tesla's powertrain but without all of the the goodies that the Model S brings to the table.


vs
I see the ability to switch to gas and travel long distances.
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Old 07-28-2013, 04:20 PM   #44
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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ya I was just reading the VIN thread on teslas forums. Seems like should come in between 5500 and 5800 for the quarter.

maybe time to buy a call and play for a short squeeze
Could be a good play. I will look to sell if Tesla reaches 136-140 on the qtr-report. I think this is likely as it will solidify the growth of Tesla.
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Old 07-28-2013, 04:55 PM   #45
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I see the ability to switch to gas and travel long distances.
Potential Tesla customers sees a clunky engine, gearbox, exhaust-pipe, higher centre of gravity, worse deformation zone and most importantly more parts that need service and can fail.
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Old 07-28-2013, 06:58 PM   #46
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Potential Tesla customers sees a clunky engine, gearbox, exhaust-pipe, higher centre of gravity, worse deformation zone and most importantly more parts that need service and can fail.
I easily and readily grant all this. That doesn't change the fact Tesla's market is pretty limited now.
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Old 07-29-2013, 09:45 AM   #47
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Markets down Tesla up. Another day another dollar.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:25 AM   #48
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Markets down Tesla up. Another day another dollar.
You're talking about this thing like it's never had a 15 point down day.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:40 AM   #49
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I easily and readily grant all this. That doesn't change the fact Tesla's market is pretty limited now.
It definitely is. Even as a non-Tesla owner though, I see something that has a backup because its primary feature is inferior.

Just because Tesla's market is limited now, doesn't mean it always will be. No one thought Musk could even make the company profitable, and even though he did it very unconventionally/artificially through government subsidies and semi-voodoo payment plans, he still did it.

If, and that is a huge if, he gets a smaller coupe/sedan car similar to a civic, in the civics price range Tesla is going to absolutely kill it.

Now that is a lot of things that have to conspire to make it work, but if anyone can do it I think it is Musk. But the stock is going to continue to rise until he is proved wrong, just like any other bull market/bubble people are betting on Tesla because the payoff is huge and they are greedy.

While I wouldn't buy Tesla now, I certainly don't have the balls to bet against Musk either. That product is really close to perfect if he can sort out cost and scale.

Last edited by LeprechaunFlute; 07-29-2013 at 10:47 AM. Reason: word choice
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Old 07-29-2013, 11:06 AM   #50
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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You're talking about this thing like it's never had a 15 point down day.
Well this is one of those days that shows the strength of Tesla. Up 4.5% friday on a neutral / down market. Today on a down market we are seeing about 3% up. Not many companies have this strong investors and core owners.
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