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Old 03-05-2017, 01:08 PM   #1601
ToothSayer
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Autonomous driving priorities:

Step 1: DON'T CRASH INTO THINGS
Step 2: Stay within the lanes
Step 3: Have enough situational awareness to change lanes and follow clear markings
Step 4: Navigate major highways including correct lanes and exits
Step 5: Navigate more complex situations yet normal traffic such as stop signs, traffic lights.
.....
Step 30: Full autonomous driving.

The losers at TSLA haven't even managed to tackle even a fraction of the bugs in step 1, which is a trivial and long solved autonomous driving problem. What's more, they are such reckless cowboys they release software for public consumption and onto public streets with unprofessional drivers, software that is comically unable to do step 1, while marketing it as "autonomous driving" and calling it "autopilot".

Yet according to you they are ahead at autonomous driving research. And the "vast amount" of data they were supposedly capturing in AP1 hasn't enabled them - even that which has been put out months late from their own timeline - to make AP2 work without swerving everywhere during simple highway driving.

Please, defend them some more and claim they're ahead of the big car makers such as GM:



Everything you guys post just me more and more credibility and makes you look more and more ridiculous.
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Old 03-05-2017, 02:07 PM   #1602
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The self insured thing added to this feels comically dangerous
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Old 03-05-2017, 06:36 PM   #1603
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Given the increase in insults towards Tesla and people with business sense, makes it all the more obvious that Tesla is doing it right and currently winning.

GM posted a video and you think they are anywhere near Tesla. Have you seen the gear the car has on top of it? We are talking about different things. Tesla actually tries to bring it to market.
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Old 03-05-2017, 07:17 PM   #1604
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
Given the increase in insults towards Tesla and people with business sense, makes it all the more obvious that Tesla is doing it right and currently winning.

GM posted a video and you think they are anywhere near Tesla. Have you seen the gear the car has on top of it? We are talking about different things. Tesla actually tries to bring it to market.
With every post you discredit yourself more. It's wonderful. Here are some choice quotes from that thread from actual Tesla owners on the state of Tesla's deployed AP1:

1. It swerves toward oncoming cars and fire hydrants:
Quote:
I have driven about 3-4 times for a total of 15 minutes with auto steer on side roads. I have had a great experience with it on the highway but the side streets are terrifying! It immediately tried to drive into the first car that passed me, next it turned hard towards a fire hydrant and it did a rapid swerve when crossing an intersection. I could not leave it for more than 1-2 minutes without some erratic driving experience occurring. It is downright dangerous and in my opinion needs to be disabled. I could not even log all the bug reports as there were so many and I was afraid to move my hands from the wheel. I would rather them focus their energy on getting the highway right and at higher speeds.

2. Can't even stay in its lane going round a bend:
Quote:
Drove it for 2 weeks for a business trip in NJ. I wanted to experience as much AP1 as possible so I enabled it every chance I got. The few most dangerous incidents were all at more than 45 degree bends. It literally going straight to the other side of the road.
These are AP2 comments:

3. Tesla's demo video which heltok et al got so excited about was a pure fraud to fool dopes, like many things with Musk:
Quote:
The official documents Tesla filed to the CA DMV shows like less than 1500 miles of total autonomous driving, and at least an intervention every mile or two, which leads me to suspect it's classic Demo Ware — we are watching the one shot where it just happened to work and not the other ones where it tried to go into a ditch or run over the two ladies jogging, etc etc etc
4. Software guys who own and are fans of Tesla are realize that Musk (nerd-Trump) has sold them bull****:
Quote:
I guess Tesla is shooting themselves in the foot by showing off hyper capabilities of AP2 (over promising) and delivering updates so slowly (underdeliver), that as each day passes and AP2 doesn't get better, it only worries me if Tesla sold something to people that they wouldn't be able to deliver in the committed time frames, or perhaps never. I am in the software world too and I tend to agree with other folks here, even if you are on a private code branch the codebase has to be similar somewhere!

Perhaps time to ask musk himself on Twitter as why there's huge gap in the functionality.
5. Shockingly missed times, fraudulent sales claims:
Quote:
We're nearly at 4 months since the EAP announcement of 2-3 months with the order page telling us EAP was expected to be done in December. Starting on 12/31, they've pushed out half-baked and anecdotally dangerous updates. Musk has several times tweeted deadlines that have been missed. The Product Specialists and Owner Advisors, for let's hope in just simple ignorant exuberance, tell customers things that were/are simply false.
6. The state of their in-house software is a debacle, and far behind the MobileEye they ditched, despite better hardware now and being way over time:
Quote:
But, I don't think complaints will serve much purpose at this point. That Tesla isn't currently capable of duplicating AP1 performance, let alone "enhanced" AP is now self-evident. What would you like them to do? They are working to recover as quickly as possible. Did they grossly overstate their capability? Yes. Did they hype the situation to cover up the huge setback that Mobileye's departure created? It appears so. Did they knowingly mislead customers? Obviously.
AP2 also brakes for overhead signs - LOL.

It's clear what's going here. Tesla are shockingly behind the other carmakers - many years - and desperate. The end of their relationship with MobileEye has set them back years - they have no functioning codebase of their own, as most of their code and know how was MobileEye's - and now they're desperately scrambling to put out something even half as good as AP1 (as bad as AP1 was!), because Musk promised it two months ago and is/has taken money for it. And to cover themselves now, and Musk's fraud, they are releasing highly dangerous, quarter baked software onto public roads.

This is a disaster. I'm so fully vindicated here there's nothing more to say: I am 100% right on where Tesla stands on autonomous driving and always have been; everyone who disagreed with me is wrong.
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Old 03-06-2017, 12:17 AM   #1605
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
3. Tesla's demo video which heltok et al got so excited about was a pure fraud to fool dopes, like many things with Musk:

Quote:
The official documents Tesla filed to the CA DMV shows like less than 1500 miles of total autonomous driving, and at least an intervention every mile or two, which leads me to suspect it's classic Demo Ware — we are watching the one shot where it just happened to work and not the other ones where it tried to go into a ditch or run over the two ladies jogging, etc etc etc
The information provided does not allow us to draw that conclusion.

I have been testing self driving cars many hours and interventions happen for many reasons. Maybe you test two things at the same time, sometimes you want to test the same thing many times etc. Sometimes you test different version of the software.

It should also be noted that AP2 only uses one of all the cameras right now, in the demo they were likely using a version of the software using at least 4 cameras, probably all of them.

While I agree that AP2 seems to perform insufficient for some the use cases Tesla is actually recommending right now, we can't really tell from this how the version in the video would perform.

I suspect we will see rapid improvements of AP2, then we will see a shaky FSD and then we will see rapid improvements there. Ofc these measurements will be highly subjective, but I expect to see lower frequency of accidents reported in a year or two for when FSD was engaged.
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Old 03-06-2017, 05:37 AM   #1606
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
With every post you discredit yourself more. It's wonderful. Here are some choice quotes from that thread from actual Tesla owners on the state of Tesla's deployed AP1:

1. It swerves toward oncoming cars and fire hydrants:



2. Can't even stay in its lane going round a bend:


These are AP2 comments:

3. Tesla's demo video which heltok et al got so excited about was a pure fraud to fool dopes, like many things with Musk:


4. Software guys who own and are fans of Tesla are realize that Musk (nerd-Trump) has sold them bull****:


5. Shockingly missed times, fraudulent sales claims:


6. The state of their in-house software is a debacle, and far behind the MobileEye they ditched, despite better hardware now and being way over time:


AP2 also brakes for overhead signs - LOL.

It's clear what's going here. Tesla are shockingly behind the other carmakers - many years - and desperate. The end of their relationship with MobileEye has set them back years - they have no functioning codebase of their own, as most of their code and know how was MobileEye's - and now they're desperately scrambling to put out something even half as good as AP1 (as bad as AP1 was!), because Musk promised it two months ago and is/has taken money for it. And to cover themselves now, and Musk's fraud, they are releasing highly dangerous, quarter baked software onto public roads.

This is a disaster. I'm so fully vindicated here there's nothing more to say: I am 100% right on where Tesla stands on autonomous driving and always have been; everyone who disagreed with me is wrong.
Given the fact that I've schooled you a few times on simple business logic, you are still extremely confident.

The fact that you link to page 2 of the thread shows your attention span. Maybe go to the last few pages and see the improvements (and in some cases lack thereof) that have happened.

You show a very poor understanding of how machine learning works. You will be schooled by the real world when GM rolls out their self-driving capabilities and the same stuff happens.
Hard coding lots of stuff into an algorithm will yield a poorer performance down the road. So while the scenarios might have been solved years ago, it's comparing apples to oranges. The question should be: Will they be solved? And the answer to that is: abso-****ing-lutely.

In general, you have a poor level of understanding tech. You are probably a good vega, delta, gamma, zeta, omega, bull**** trader but your longterm predictions have been completely wrong.

Tesla will be the first car company to demonstrate a road to autonomous driving and it will happen sooner than people now expect.
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Old 03-06-2017, 11:19 AM   #1607
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Haha - cuck who doesn't trade doesn't realize that borrow rates change. These rates were during the SCTY acquisition period when it was heavily shorted by big money, down to $180, in order to take advantage of the value loss during that period. No one here was was shorting when borrow rates were 30%.

And in fact, much of the run up of Tesla since the SCTY acquisition can be attributed to large scale short covering following the trade, plus the general market rip pulling up high beta.

When I recommended shorting above at $283, borrow rates were 1%. Which makes this comment more of your total stupidity:

You're an abusive idiot who's usually wrong, with the double whammy of having no idea what he's talking about. Just STFU already.
Glad you agree with my point that using the average borrow rate is silly when the company in question has borrow rates vastly higher at times. A forum post isn't a trading record, but we've established that you don't actually trade.
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Old 03-08-2017, 07:21 PM   #1608
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?



http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000599610

Last edited by heltok; 03-08-2017 at 07:46 PM.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:17 PM   #1609
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

If Mobileye is worth $15B that is not bad for Tesla's valuation.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/13/re...-driving-tech/
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:39 PM   #1610
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mmbt0ne View Post
If Mobileye is worth $15B that is not bad for Tesla's valuation.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/13/re...-driving-tech/
Pssh. Irrelevant. Tesla's technology is so bad they will have to pay someone to buy them someday!!!


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Old 03-13-2017, 11:52 PM   #1611
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

tbh that's not really good for TSLA if they want to become a big player in automatic driving themselves. just one more competitor who suddenly has infinite amounts of money.
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Old 03-15-2017, 04:35 PM   #1612
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Just announced the most non shocking secondary ever. Stock pops because of course...
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Old 03-17-2017, 06:39 PM   #1613
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

now that I can post back on here, glad to be back. was browsing surprised nobody posted news link to this. all I can say is wow. they are burning cash like savages...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ing-25mm-stock
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:25 PM   #1614
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wealth$ View Post
now that I can post back on here, glad to be back. was browsing surprised nobody posted news link to this. all I can say is wow. they are burning cash like savages...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ing-25mm-stock
Yeah, Model3 is expected to "burn" $2.4B in the ramp up. They had ~$3.4B before this raise so with this they will have ~$2.2B after Model3 investments. If they can't make money from Model3 investors will not be happy, but if they manage to make profits and scale to 500k cars/year investors will be very happy.

Another question is how much Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 will cost and how much investments they will need for Model Y, semi-truck and other unknown projects. I expect a lot of cash burn as they try to go from 100k->500k->2M->10M vehicles per year.
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:22 PM   #1615
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

can someone point me towards the bull case regarding margins on the models 3? Want to read more on this, as I am openly short on tesla
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:50 PM   #1616
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

20-25% for bull. People don't really disagree on the gross margin front. Model 3 will use smaller batteries, weaker motors and smaller frame. All indications are Tessa is building Model 3 as a scaled down Model S across the board, preserving most of the gross margin percentage.

15-20% is probably roughly the consensus, just a little higher than Prius.

Keep in mind tesla is probably building around 20% gross margin and trying to cram as much performance as possible subject to the constraint.

The better question is if they could build a Model 3 good enough to crush competitors before they even spawn competing models. The leaked Model 3 specs suggest Tesla has a good chance to pull it off, provided the delays arent longer than expected.
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:31 AM   #1617
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
can someone point me towards the bull case regarding margins on the models 3? Want to read more on this, as I am openly short on tesla
I quoted a bull case earlier:

Quote:
2017:

Tesla Energy: 6.5 GWh, 2.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 250 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 57k cars, 3.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 350 million gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 100k cars, 9 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 2.7 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 250 MW, 1.25 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 125 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 3.425 billion. Assuming 2.5 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 925 million. And a P/E multiplier of 50 means the company would be worth 46.25 billion USD. Assuming 170 million shares, that would be a SP of 272 USD.

2018:

Tesla Energy: 12.5 GWh, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 373k cars, 20 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 4 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 1 GW, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 8.65 billion. Assuming 3.65 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 5 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 100 billion USD. Assuming 180 million shares, that would be a SP of 555 USD.

2019:

Tesla Energy: 30 GWh, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model 3/Y: 500k cars, 25 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 2 GW, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 11.15 billion. Assuming 4.15 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 7 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 140 billion USD. Assuming 190 million shares, that would be a SP of 736 USD.
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Old 03-18-2017, 08:11 AM   #1618
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Also, it seems that AP2 is performing a lot better now. Still not FSD, but getting closer...

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Old 03-18-2017, 10:52 PM   #1619
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I remember when bears said that Tesla introduced 60kWh because they had a lack of demand. Well now it's gone again.

http://www.torquenews.com/3855/tesla...ke-way-model-3
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Old 03-24-2017, 02:38 PM   #1620
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok View Post
Also, it seems that AP2 is performing a lot better now. Still not FSD, but getting closer...

Brilliant business strategy on Tesla's part with having 10,000's of well educated techie 1%ers pay you and happily beta Tesla your AP2 system for you on a daily basis. And they are slowly expanding the speed limits of the system to limit abuse before it gets good.
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:50 PM   #1621
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Can the Tesla bears and skeptics in here point me to another company that has over 5 billion in annual revenue with a credible path to triple its revenue run rate over next two years?
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:31 PM   #1622
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

why do you want 5b in revenue as a base? unless you have billions in AUM that's pretty insignificant.
a company trippling their revenue from 100m to 300m will give you the same or an even better return on your investment and might have a far easier path than tsla. market is was more inefficient down there.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:34 PM   #1623
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

If you can find me any 100m companies making credible progress in slam dunk growth areas like EVs, grid storage and or driver assist / self driving development, I'd also be interested.

Show me another company with 60% CAGR and credible path to triple revenue run rate towards 20 billion over next two years focusing on sectors that are going to grow faster than most realize (EVs, grid storage). The bear arguments just seem pretty shallow at this point.
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:02 PM   #1624
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

i can see a credible path i can bang a victorias secret model over the next two years.
doesn't make me a good bet.
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Old 03-28-2017, 02:10 AM   #1625
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
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The bear arguments just seem pretty shallow at this point.
The bear argument is that they will lose money on every car they sell to get those kind of volumes.
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