Bought CHK $22.05 20.25 STOP LOSS. Target $45

So are we supposed to put down are trades of the year?

My trade of the year was buying mindesta and continuing to buy it when the arbitrage was still present before the northern graphite spinoff. For anyone who was paying attention, it was literally free money. too bad I didn't put more money in there

This will definitely not be the trade of the year. Nat Gas prices are going to continue to stay soft and things could get ugly by the middle of summer unless something changes.

Not sure how you can describe "buying at the peak of a +5% day" as "trade of the year". Make up your mind 8 hours faster next year.

What do you see happening to companies like CHK during this time and in the near future?

I like this trade a lot.

I have quite a few puts on CHK at $21... natural gas prices are super soft and show no signs of changing...

Hell... they shut in 500 MMcfd and may shut in up to 1 Bcfd... you are seeing a lot of companies shut in gas production... its hard to make money when your assets are only overhead w/ no income

As more and more companies cut production, nat gas will bottom (if it hasn't already). I expect a sharp rebound, as just too many people are bearish.

The question is, which companies will survive? I'm more of a macro guy, but in looking at the balance sheets of players such as CHK and KWK, I don't see how they survive with so much debt and so little cash. One thought: Sell off assets to service debts? Thoughts?

Trade of the year: HND

Levered inverse natty gas ETF in Toronto.

I guess I am taking a bit of an opposing stance to you on this one haha

Oil/Nat gas ratio is at historic extremes. Geo-political/petro politics makes oil as a long term energy solution less viable.

Here is my thesis: .Gov gets their act together and makes nat gas a legitimate alternative. It can be used with the right infrastructure in place.

Additionally, why would you short an asset at such a relative (to other commodities) historic low? It's down ~ 75% from the peak...hasn't the easy money been made? Sure, there may be SOME money left to be made. But you may also be risking the mother of all short squeezes (like we saw in silver last year).

Do some research on HNU and HND, or even HOU and HOD, these instruments are toxic over the long run on the long aside especially.

Oil / nat gas dont even need to go down in order to profit on the bear versions of these funds.

Do some research on contango and the futures market on these things before even considering trading them but HND was up 200%+ in a 4 or 5 months window and natty wasnt down 30% even during that time.

That said the natty gas squeeze day cost HND 22% in one day.

I came to the conclusion 2 years ago that these instruments were basically designed to destroy retail investors on the long side (what other side is there for the fish)

Good luck.

Been doing some more research. From the fundamental side, it looks like XOM is trying to squeeze out all the small players by not cutting production. The question becomes, how far can they can they drive the price down. I don't think they're going to stop until they wipe out their competition.

Aubrey has clearly stated some assets that were bought much lower will be sold to improve the balance sheet.

So you're not worried about their short/medium term liquidity?