ouch - how has Wynn done? I feel like Steve Wynn has made great decisions in Macau but I haven't looked much into their results......I dont think your going to see only interstate gambling especially if its only poker - there's not enough incentive for that especially in smaller states.....I think we'll see online gaming that spans more then just poker.

well put

suggest everyone head to cnbc and look up MGM CEO talking about actual numbers and figures applied to revenues for them and their PARTNER Party

All the legislation being proposed is rigged in favor of the large, land based casinos. They are a massive lobbying force.

Lots of bills, like the one Barton or Reid one, have some sort of requirement that you have to have a brick and mortar presence in order to apply for a license. Make no mistake about it, online poker is going to center around stocks/companies that are either land based casinos or partnering with them. If you all think the switch will flip and BOOM PartyPoker will be back and dominating I'd take the other side of that trade.

Harrahs and Boyd gaming are both struggling casino brands. Boyd owns half the Borgata and a bunch of regional casinos and Harrah's owns a ton of casinos all over the U.S... Online poker could be their white knight.

LVS, MGM, WYNN, might benefit, but they are really killing it in Macau/Singapore and they are a play on that part of the gambling world. IGT, SGMS are also names to have on the radar but they'll need to partner up with casinos to really be involved.

If you want to play this theme, I think best way is to stick to regional casinos that have a poker presense. Don't expect the gov't to pass a bill that is not completely rigged for one of their biggest lobbys... No bill will pass that benefits foreign companies that in their minds broke our laws in the past.

This week I bought some harrah's bonds for 76 cents on the dollar that expire in 2016... I get paid 14-15% yield to wait, and if they don't default the yield to maturity is over 20%. If online poker gets legalized in the year these bonds will be trading above par.

If economy turns south, and online poker doesnt happen or they mess it up, they might restructure and I'll lose. Company has **** tons of debt and is in trouble if economy goes to hell. Its a risky trade for sure, but I think its a good bet. Other catalyst is an upcoming IPO (CZR, they using the Caesars name now)... They are trying for sure to do it (again... no interest last year). If it happens people might focus more on it which is probably a good thing for my bonds.

Bwin.party signed a merger with Boyd gaming and MGM. So iam not sure why people r thinking MGM may benefit but Boyd won't??? They specifically merged with the intention to enter ipoker when regulated.

The question is who will zynga partner with? It's not who will win zynga or party or the casinos...it's when and how they will all merge.

strassa what kind of broker did you use to buy that?

was there a minimum?

I still think the best play is Bwin.... if it becomes legal I don't see why MGM wouldn't just buy them completely out and take it under its own company.

But I also like the Harrah's bond play

strassa, what kind of asset coverage / loss given default did you calculate on the Ceasar's 2016s?

413627BE9

I'm a complete bond newb so I'm going to do some research before buying but I do like the idea. Selling for .71 on the dollar right now. Looks like they are continuously callable starting Feb 1 at 1.05 -- probably pretty rare that that would happen. Currently yielding 21%

Can anyone comment on if they restructure what could happen? It's probably pretty close to zero that Harrah's would go bankrupt no? Maybe certain casino's would shut, but I doubt the company as a whole would default by 2016....

I'm not 100% sure how Ceasar's capital structure is setup, but all the bonds are probably at the holding company level. They only have money to pay the interest if casinos dividend the money up to the holding company. The casinos could be running just fine and the holding company could still go bankrupt b/c it has too much debt. Shutting casinos wouldn't help you as a bondholder.

If Harrah's defaulted, the bondholders would likely get equity in a reorganized company.

had a bond friend take a look at the specific cusip you listed.

one thing that stood out to me is that there is only about 450k of the debt outstand. my friend said he thinks default is highly unlikely, and even went as far to say that should the economy pick up a bit, they would actually just call them and retire them so that they can issue more debt with hopefully a lower yield

everything I've read says Caesar's total debt is $20 billion...where is the $450k figure from?

Its .88 on the dollar atm. I think burko meant that there's that much open debt left in the bond, although my broker states 470M, not sure if that's correct.

Alright looks like we might see some action soon. Where's your money at? I got PYGMF(party) EIHDF(888) SHFL(shuffle master)

+1.
Tweets and multiple sources saying an attachment to the payroll tax plan is coming. Should we be buying on this speculation? 2+2 quicker to the market with this info again?