stocks Ahnuld likes - Page 8 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Are you ever thinking "I really like this stock, but I think it will still go lower because X" or do you just average down without the potential for a temporary sale?

01-07-2015 , 06:25 PM

#178

surftheiop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 5,162

I dont know anything about the stock market, I have leftover miscellaneous/entertainment/etc cash from last years budget that I thought it may be fun to gamble. My general gut feeling is that in general the stock market over reacts to stuff, so of course I was planning to buy something oil related, obviously next step is to troll BFI, ahnuld seems respected and HOS is oil related and has been falling. Guess I will be throwing some cash onto HOS after it holds steady for a day or something, wish me luck.

01-07-2015 , 07:10 PM

#179

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by surftheiop

It has been doing anything but holding steady. It routinely moves up and down several percentage points per day depending on the price of oil. If you just want to gamble, why not play options?

01-07-2015 , 07:14 PM

#180

surftheiop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 5,162

Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

It has been doing anything but holding steady. It routinely moves up and down several percentage points per day depending on the price of oil. If you just want to gamble, why not play options?

Because I dont know what they are

01-07-2015 , 07:21 PM

#181

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by surftheiop

Because I dont know what they are

I don't want to take this thread too off track, but buying regular stocks isn't really much of a gamble because even a big move is only a couple percentage points per day. A gambler wants a really big move. You can buy a $1000 worth of options and be left with $0 or $5000+ at the end of a month (or somewhere in between).

01-08-2015 , 01:36 PM

#182

mc911

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 89

Ahnuld, is NHC.CA running up too fast in your opinion? What's going on there you think?

01-08-2015 , 07:11 PM

#183

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by mc911

Ahnuld, is NHC.CA running up too fast in your opinion? What's going on there you think?

people are starting to price in the 40c in eps they have guided for 2015. I sold 1/3 of my position today, which I never trimmed. that was more a portfolio management thing than anything else. 7 bagger for me right now.

01-10-2015 , 04:39 PM

#184

LozColbert

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,646

i would discourage anyone who reads this thread from buying HOS before talking to someone who actually has worked in oil and gas for a couple decades.

01-10-2015 , 05:31 PM

#185

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 944

So what would any oil or gas guy have to say about it?

01-11-2015 , 04:59 AM

#186

jchristo

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by LozColbert

i would discourage anyone who reads this thread from buying HOS before talking to someone who actually has worked in oil and gas for a couple decades.

really helpful input thanks.

I asked my friend who's worked in oil and gas for a few years and he says "what?"

I think I'm all sorted now.

01-11-2015 , 09:40 AM

#187

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by LozColbert

i would discourage anyone who reads this thread from buying HOS before talking to someone who actually has worked in oil and gas for a couple decades.

thanks for the value add

01-12-2015 , 12:06 AM

#188

MediocrePlayer2.0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 9,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by LozColbert

i would discourage anyone who reads this thread from buying HOS before talking to someone who actually has worked in oil and gas for a couple decades.

What does this even mean beyond "greybeards have seen many a boom/bust"?? It doesn't mean anything about the stock.

I've worked in Oil & Gas since grad in 04 ... have witnessed 2 price collapses ..... so what, do I get a medal pinned on my chest now?

01-12-2015 , 09:12 AM

#189

ahnuld

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Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

HOS, OUTR, BKS, TTWO, TMUS, POST, CFN.to SUM.to BAD.to

ill answer intelligent questions about them best I can

edit: since thread started have sold out of SUM, bought more HOS, trimmed my TTWO and CFN was bought out

Sold my BKS last week. I didnt like the reverse operating leverage in the last earnings report. Mostly saw this in college. Nice return since I bought it at 13.50. makes up some for the mark to market losses I saw in TMUS and BAD in 2014

01-12-2015 , 07:54 PM

#190

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Posted a full writeup on HOS

01-12-2015 , 08:04 PM

#191

Deep

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 433

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

Posted a full writeup on HOS

http://www.freenpv.com/?p=457

01-13-2015 , 01:29 AM

#192

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 569

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

Posted a full writeup on HOS

thanks, enjoyed the read. Definitely a lot to like here. The exec comp makes me sick but then again, most exec comp setups make me sick. Also, when companies want to return $150m to shareholders, why don't they just do a tender offer? Yeah its more expensive than buybacks but if they truly think the stock is super depressed, the extra cost shouldn't be material to the situation.

01-13-2015 , 03:26 PM

#193

KeysToTheCity

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 164

Going to switch topics to Carfinco for a moment:

What do you make of the latest news release CFN issued along with the dividend cut?

Stock tanked yesterday on panic that the Santander deal is dead, however I don't see any break clause that Santander is able to exercise.

You'd be an idiot to still be holding CFN for a few cents of arb as of a few days ago. Given the current price however, do you think there is opportunity to still collect on the 11.25 offer?

01-13-2015 , 09:31 PM

#194

ahnuld

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Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

I sold mine back when the deal was announced and it was trading above the deal price.

That said to me it looks like they cut the dividend to ensure they stay on side of their covenant and the deal gets done. If it was dead they would have had to press release it yesterday after the slide. So my guess is pretty good chance (greater than 50%) it closes as is. I looked over the break clauses as well and doesnt seem like anything has been triggered

01-14-2015 , 04:10 PM

#195

Irishman07

adept

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,001

nice writeup on HOS, thanks

01-14-2015 , 09:47 PM

#196

trade2win

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 583

Would you be a buyer of CFN at these levels if the deal was off?

01-15-2015 , 03:08 PM

#197

domer2

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

On HOS, let's say for whatever reason oil hovers around $50 for the next 12 months. What type of impact would this have on the valuation of their equipment assets? It seems like oversupply of ships could be a massive problem in a worst case/bad scenario, and that the balance sheet could go sour.

01-15-2015 , 04:42 PM

#198

jchristo

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,563

If you read his analysis those questions are covered. Quick summary of his thoughts: HOS ship fleet is brand new/top of line and will be first-choice so should feel the soft-market less than competition. Also protected from Intl. Competition by Jones Merchant Marine Act. Offshore Oil fields have longer lives and increasing capacity + high fixed-cost so shut down is unlikely. Then he uses 2011 balance sheet figures (when BP spill stopped new drilling in the Gulf) and showed that they still came out with $100m free cash or something in a bad case scenario.

I think that was the argument, i'm just going off memory.

01-20-2015 , 01:32 PM

#199

student.of.da.game

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 183

does the change at the ceo position affect your opinion of OUTR at all?

01-20-2015 , 01:57 PM

#200

trade2win

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 583

Getting back to CFN I don't see anything that would justify breaking up the deal, but I also didn't see any mention of a breakup fee Sandtrader is obligated to pay should they walk away from the deal. Maybe I missed it did anyone come across it? I'm guessing any break up fee would be pretty small anyway.

It seems like the only reason shares sold off is because Sandtrader did a share placement which I guess people are interpreting as them calling of any deals?

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