Ya that's the size of the contract they just revealed (1m).

sure, but I was just going off royalty runrates. Last couple times I saw them it was roughly $1.25 royalty per thousand bills printed with 90% ebitda margins. Looking at US bill production by year (always greater in the first few years on a new series) I get my 1-2mm ebitda.

The 1mm rev development deal I assume is lower margin because a lot goes into the rfp

NTS call is super amusing, but really encouraging.


CEO: Due to the sensitive nature of the bank note industry, we have to be super confidential

CFO: But we're stoked because our annual revenue is going to double this coming year, and wait until you hear about this huge Asian customer

Analysts on Call: So are you saying the Asian customer is going to double your annual revenue?

CFO: Sorry this is all super confidential


Anyone who can read people can tell these guys just had to let the "secret" out (maybe to protect share price), but then realized they better reign it in. I really liked the fact that their revenues are in stronger currencies than the CDN, and that they can scale up revenues without having to scale up operating costs (much). Sounds like they aren't even remotely worried about their burn rate. Almost sounds like they know they're sitting on a gold mine. Curious to see how it plays out over the next few years.

I don't own any shares, but was reading over the NAL.TO results (and the almost 30% haircut it took). They certainly did all the right things in terms of cost cutting. But man their 2016 outlook didn't sound very rosy. I also had no idea they were in the business of selling oil too. That certainly explains the beating they took. Also was that massive (for them) impairment value something they just decided to do now and rip the bandaid off?

can anyone explain wtf is going on with HOS and oil based stocks in general

There's been a lot of talk of institutional bets becoming increasingly bullish. I think every time there's a sniff of a rally now everyone pours in. Nobody wants to miss the "big one"

Interesting...was wondering if I missed some major piece of news
I've been trying to move some money from an old 401k to cost average down but that plan went out the window in the past week lol.

I've just been reading 3 of these a day. http://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-fu...lut-1456924051

Weird thing is if I'm reading the COT reports right, there hasn't been much of a shift in commercial money with regards to oil yet.

Ok that one I figured out. check the short float...

ahnuld,
i bought KRI based on your recommendation last year and now the news that they will receive 70million compensation before may 15?
Should i try to sell somewhere near $0.84 on the open market or i should wait ?What does the company do with the money after may 15?
No idea what to do here.

thanks for everything you have contributed in this thread

I would hold my KRI. Based on my conversations with mgmt they intend to return the cash to shareholders once they get it. No point selling now when we get much more for holding a few more months. Only risk is mongolia is dicking them around.

Heres a write up I posted on VIC at new years. Couldnt cross post due to vic exclusivity, but now its public due to time lapse. Its avaiable to people with non approved accounts.

http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/id...IL_CORP/137877

Gratz on being accepted into VIC.

ahnuld, any idea what kind of method they use to return the cash? in the form of dividend?

Ahnuld:

this is an old one but are you still holding tight with Maxim, mxg.to?

ya, all moving in the right direction just taking forever. value probably about $5-6 with current exchange rates

Curious what you think post earning on NAL Ahnuld. Strikes me as way overdone and better value then when you first posted about it.

results were pretty bad but thats as expected. Their guidance was based off strip at the time which is now below where we are at. They got some awesome covenant relief so bankruptcy isnt a question for the next 2 years. That said they might be cash flow negative after interest payments and capex this year. So the outcome here is still zero or 10$+ imo. My view is that oil rebounds to 60$ in that timeframe so I think the ev is much greater than 2$. but hard to say if its more attractive than at 3$ because the Q was pretty ugly.

Will they have to pay taxes at all on this payout?

dont think so

pretty pissed with newalta. That equity raise really limits the upside math. Im gessing their bankers made them do it because it reduces bank debt from 75mm to 25mm but it doesnt do a ton for their overall leverage yet is 60% dilutive.

Still this means they have zero pressure until the first bond is due in 2019. And with activity levels coming back to a reasonable number (second half 2017?) they can generate 140mm ebitda which gets us to $9. Assume that happens at $60. So math still works but less compelling than before.

I hate when management teams do things to minimize risk of bankruptcy rather than maximize ev for equity holders.

Starz stand-alone app launching soon --

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/bu...=li-share&_r=1

NTS quietly one of my best performers this year. Thanks again for letting me know about it Ahnuld. Also bought some NAL today, I think it's lagging behind the rally a little.

trimmed some HOS yesterday morning. think runup to doha and the obama announcement is gonna take some off the stock short term. also want to hear what industry says after new safety regs

Ahnuld, you see the announcement earlier in the month of NTS getting into pretty high profile ticketing forgery counter measures? That's huge, your projections never even needed them to break into that market. I certainly wasn't counting on it.