You should link your model then. I know way more on the topics I talk about than you. You really should try to be more receptive to criticism instead of a douche. Not a good quality if you hope to work on the buy side for a real firm.

timeout time for donnie.

There's a stronger than you'd think movement going on to get the gov't to ban cash and that would mean gg coinstar. Simply too much risk for me.

anyway, RYCEY up pretty nicely from last week (7.xx to 9.65). The old dividend gets cut and it still goes up a lot move.

can you expand on this? Are you short names like LOOM-B ?

Ive heard this cashless argument before. you'd get 500 ero and $100 notes banned long before you get rid of coins but I doubt it happens. I cant imagine americans accepting being forced to have every transaction be traceable. too many civil liberty issues.

CF numbers uninspiring but this is investment is for long term anyways. We knew they had some bad hedges in 2015 and to a lesser extend in 2016. Also knew prices were gonna be **** in q4 and applications were light.

I think game plan is to undersell the story right now, wait for inversion to get settled one way or the other and then use the 3 billion cash they have to buy back shares.

Pretty good uptick yesterday for CF despite the earnings miss and uninspiring numbers. Got in earlier this month at $29.30 and expect to be in it for the long haul.

mgmt team are good presenters. made a compelling case for why weak dec/jan prices were artificial and why china wont produce at such a low price in the medium term. also expressed interest in doing big buyback post OCI.

on numbers now would be like 3 billion of buybacks tomorrow.

what content does strza own that it can sell?

looks like they have tv broadcast rights + a few low popularity shows?

I don't get how bundling hurts them

if you unbundle, there is 0 reason to get starz, absolutely none.

it is redundant with netflix/amazon, both of whom probably not only have many of the same broadcast rights, but far larger libraries/on demand viewing.

alright so strza has -$200m tangible book value, trades at an ~average PE, in a business that is dying a slow death.......so, why bother?

what am i missing here that makes it a compelling investment? who cares if it makes $3 in EPS this year? who cares if american gods is a sleeper hit? these are both limited upside compared to the the price of the equity.

if you had $3.3b, you'd buy this company & its debt?

I meant unbundling of being forced to buy 100 specialty channel before you can buy starz, not unbunlding starz from a premium channel pack. Theres definitely some positive effects from being bundled with HBO but thats reflected in starz' lower carriage fee.

7x PE is well below average and I think they can grow, rather than your claim that its dying a slow death. subs, revs and ebitda all trending in the right direction for years.

below average compared to what? looks like about a 10x PE using 2015 4th quarter estimates, but either way, this is not a company that seems to be growing, and it does not warrant a growth P/E.

where is the trend here?

2011 1.6B rev / 247m net income
2012 1.6B rev / 255m net income
2013 1.8B rev / 250m net income
2014 1.7B rev / 270m net income
2015 (estimated) 1.7B rev / ~240m net income
projection for 2016: ~1.7b rev / ~250m net income

Additionally, you face the risk of secular decline in cable subscriptions, which I guess is why they are spending enormous sums on original series to have a reason to exist in an unbundled world.

I just don't get it. Even if you think the company is slightly cheap, and that is arguable, why bother with this company? the first question in the conf call sums up for me....paraphrasing: "there's 400 scripted tv series in production, why are yours special?" the market they are in is completely saturated, highly competitive, and ridiculously expensive. and even if they end up making great shows, they still face risk of accelerating decline in cable subscriptions.

7x my 2017 numbers once disney output deal ends.

subs, which you left out, are up. In a world that is losing total cable subs. so clearly there is something more to the story than just subs are driven by total cable subs. And save for a one time hit from shifting an original from a series to a limited run, 2015 NI would be a record too.

2016 they are carrying a lot of original spend and all of disney cost, hence lower NI.

Going worldwide OTT where they haven't penetrated though cable yet.

See my earlier comments on CEO track record.

starz subs up, encore subs down

CEO has been in the post for 6 years with middling success on original programming, at what point is the magic wand going to be waved?

seems like things could change in the next 24 months for you to be betting on 2017 numbers. a recession, for one. which i think could lead to a RAPID acceleration in cable cancellations.

they get way less per sub on encore, not that significant.

I would argue Power and Outlander are 2 very successful shows that will probably end up with syndication. Black sails is a moderate success.

Starz subs grew through 2008 and 2009

IBG is crushing it good job OP. My 3rd biggest position overall and biggest Canadian so I'm quite happy .

I think a bunch of steam behind the stock though is a newsletter writer pumping it but everything I hearfrom my Eng buddies is the company has straightened its **** out.

I'm only on .db and .db.c though not the stock.

so does dds not hold earning calls or am i just being an idiot?

they never hold calls. Have no IR presence. Family business, they bought back 13% of shares last year, will probably do just as much this year. They are slowly privatizing this thing and are up to 47% of total shares. Honestly they can probably only keep up this rate for another year and then they will probably look to buyout minority shareholders.

Results wern't great, which was expected. Good part is it seems they worked down all their excess inventory, unlike JWN, so they are entering 2016 with a clean slate. Will likely do something like 11$ in free cash per share this year.

Sure you saw this by now: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/na...210000547.html

Is the 3M value a bit...low?

Thats not the big deal they have in the works on the optical thin film side, thats a completely new development contract. If it is what I think it is, it could be game changing, but its 3 years down the road.

Yeah I did think a G8 country was spectacular news, just thought it was a small amount. It was enough to move the needle a little.

second press release this week related to an early stage development contract signed in Feb 2015. Moving to final phase. Would be huge if that converts to nano security features on a bill, which could happen in 2017 based on what it sounds like.

Hopefully more info on the conference call Monday, but suddenly the long shot blue sky is becoming more realistic

saw that, very nice. Happy to be holding a nice chunk of shares.

Ya, although just to be transparent getting on a single bill of a big issuing authority isnt that financially lucrative. I estimate it would mean about 1-2mm ebitda per bill per year. But it leads to much larger acceptance and could eventually lead to something like 50mm ebitda through multiple contracts in multiple industries. so its the first, but necessary, step.