I like it when people answer the semi obvious questions for me.

DDS also already has the REIT strcuture in place. They sold some of it to that REIT a few years ago to take advantage of some tax losses that were expiring. To calculate the value you look at how many square feet they own and assume normal rent per square foot, then I assume DDS can lease it back at a 7% cap rate and you get a value. I didnt do the math on this one, my friend who has way more resources did a deep dive by group of properties to come up with that number

no its more a backstop to valuation and something they can eventually do some day. My guess is they keep buying back shares and in a couple years the dillards family privatizes the company. then theyll sell off the real estate to fund it.

Dillards to me is a dying business model. I don't know anyone, old, middle aged and definitely the younger crowd doesn't buy stuff there. Even if the land is worth something that won't keep them afloat for the extended future.

This is a well known story in the investing community so any sell side report would probably have a good valuation.

In terms of going it alone, start with what looks like the most expensive building (e.g. their huge NYC store) and start working your way down the list.

And just do some basic googling:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ma...0OI1YQ20150602

http://www.wsj.com/articles/macys-fa...ing-1440521068

this perception is why the opportunity exists. You're just not looking at the numbers






"During fiscal 2014 as compared to fiscal 2013, total sales and sales in comparable stores increased 1%."

"Net sales from the retail operations segment decreased $50.1 million or 1% during fiscal 2013 as compared to fiscal 2012. During the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2014 as compared to the 52 weeks ended February 2, 2013, total sales and sales in comparable stores increased 1%"

yes positive same store sales in calendar 2013 and 2014, and negative sales in 2015 thats affecting the entire industry. Clearly a business falling off a cliff.

dynamics are better at DDS, im more comfortable with them.

- family owns control block of special voting shares but by mid year will also have over 50% of economic interest

- William Dillard II clearly knows how to run the business and executed a nice turnaround over past decade

- They return 100% of fcf to shareholders in form of buyback but at least arent stupid about it. Buyback ramped down when stock was over $110, they ramped up this summer under $100 and I bet are going nuts now. Q4 is their big fcf generating quarter

- Real estate undervalued and I trust the work done on it, dont know the macys work.

- Slightly cheaper and in a more defensible position. The higher up market you go the less internet is a risk.

- way less leverage at about .5 ebitda. M has 2x. If im wrong and department stores are in terminal decline you want the one with less leverage. Assuming 10% fcf decline in perpetuity and real estate is zero for both, in dillards you still get $30 per share in macys you get zero

This is an interesting read.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/294654490/...sletter-151231

He also touches on el nino and its negative effect on retail in 2015:
Since it is scribd you cannot copy, that site can suck an ocean of dicks. It is on page 7.

Has the thesis changed for you at all for CF down here at 32? I thought about closing out a long term position and getting into CF at 30 but certainly not as familiar with the company as you. I am curious to what your take is on CF and their industry ATM.

Why would bankruptcies impact supply?

Because if oil companies are bankrupt they aren't supplying oil.

^ yeah but the assets get sold to someone else.

Granted they may or may not keep producing.

In a bankruptcy while the assets get sold they definitely get more ****ed up, think of a house that is repossessed by the bank. Not maintained at the same level as by a homeowner. Also bankruptcies mean those companies arent drilling new wells.

not really, people are just freaking out about the yuan devaluaing because the Chinese are the marginal high cost producer so if their costs go down in USD it drags the marginal break even price lower, lowering Urea prices. But not to the extend CF falls from lows 60$ to 30$. Thats just cray

I respectfully disagree. Bankruptcies actually lower an E&P's costs since interest expense is reduced via a recapitalization.

Yes they are.

they are running down their wells. So their production is probably declining at 35% a year with no replacement. The dislocation does lead to increased production declines.

I don't even understand why I feel just about as much pain in the debt of the OSV companies as the equities. jeeeeebus

all the cash on the bs gives them a lot of flexibility. Im sure management is looks at their options for that 300mm

Have been going back and forth between CF and BKS for a 5+ year outlook for the long term portfolio. Doing the homework the best I can for both companies. Set alerts for CF at 26 and BKS at 7.5 ATM. Best play for me here is to wait for next ER's for both, especially BKS and go from there, as well as follow BKS management. Sorry, talking out loud at the moment.

What is Ahnulds track record? The good and the bad.

It's terrible...only a foole would pay attention...see you tomorrow when I log back

I havent been in BKS for a long time. I made my money and moved on. For a 5 year hold id much rather buy CF. Theres pretty much 1-3% annual demand growth thats guaranteed vs what is probably declining demand for 5 years for BKS

HMHC looks interesting. It seems their accounting is hiding true earnings power. But 4-500m$ in FCF seems likely in 2 years or so and they have a large moat. Thoughts Ahnuld?

there is a good write up on VIC on them.

do you like Linamar here? looks good to me fundamentally and undervalued.

just gonna stick to the stocks mentioned in the OP, but yeah LNR is cheap here and a good company