Looking for a spot to buy NAL again here pretty soon. Was hoping for as little as 2.10

What's the latest on Nanotech? Is there still supposed to be some big news coming?

Ahnuld is clearly the most informed of the bunch so his comments are the ones I'd wait on, but I can tell you what the average shareholder is waiting on:

-A lot of the existing opportunities have potential to scale upwards (a lot) and outwards across different areas of opportunity (I'm speaking of contracts with governments here, look back itt to see what those are)

-The money that was raised was done so primarily to boost the sales side of things, and start looking at areas outside of currency (if you go back in this thread you can see what those are).

-Fulfilling the existing contracts is what will move the needle the soonest, since in theory NTS can't even fill the demand that some of their customers need.

-At this point I think the average long is waiting on management to meet their guidance on revenue (ie a significant increase). Ahnuld mentioned he'd be quite happy with them just making enough to stop drawing down on cash. The CEO guided towards significantly better than that, so who knows.

Either way if you believe in the bull case, it's trading at very attractive valuation still. If you expect them to come out and say "there were delays, figure QX of 2017 for our previous targets", then you're going to be able to buy shares pretty close to $1. That's my best guess.

hey Ahnuld.
do you have bullish links on the macro picture for CF? every time I look at putting money into Ag stocks, the oversupply issue holds me back. as a bonus, if you have any opinion on AFN as an income stock in the AG space it would be greatly appreciated.

I know it was from the other thread but thoughts on outerwall going private? $52 seems low to me...

Well it is trading slightly higher than $52

That's because it's likely going to pay at least one more dividend before getting taken out. Pretty happy I doubled and tripled down hard on this at $45 and $40.

Won't be owning any melting ice cubes anytime soon though.

I'm pretty sure dividends will get paid anyway, so it would make sense for the stock to trade below $52.

From today's 8K

"Dividend
In addition, on July 24, 2016, the Outerwall Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share of common stock. The dividend is expected to be paid on September 6, 2016, to stockholders of record at the close of business on August 23, 2016."

Some companies suspend dividends when being taken over. In this case shareholders are gonna end up getting 52.60

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

Ah ok, I see what you're saying. The real buyout price is kinda like 52.60, so the stock is trading below that, but still above the stated price of $52 because of the dividend.

On August 24th, we probably see the price drop below $52

sorry for late reply, was out of town for a few weeks. Seems on the low side, especially after that decent earnings report. Comes out to about 4x ebitda 2016 which is very low considering a 1/3 of ebitda is stable/growing in coinstar. even if you give the redbox business a 3x multiple which is probably deserved, the cointar should get something like 8x instead of 6x. makes a big difference on stock price, getting us almost to $70.

but if someone else agrees they will step up and make a superior bid so not much else to do but sit back and if no one emerges, vote yes.

Apollo is going to clean up though, I am sure there is so much fat to cut

Ahnuld you have any expectations from HOS earnings coming up? I'm leaning towards building another position here pretty soon, just trying to figure out the odds of a significant beat. If it's low I'll wait till after earnings. I'm of the opinion that it's low enough with that short float.

Was the conf call this morning for PRSC earnings? Anybody listen in?
Saw the sharp drop from 50 and now they are down below yesterdays open...

thought the call was really good. went over revenue outlook andmargins for each devision, seems pretty positive. Main drag is workforce development division margins and those should really pick up next year. Capex should come down substantially in 2017. I think decent chance for something like 4.50 in fcf. Id pay 15x fcf for this business, not 10.

hello anhuld, was wondering if you're still high on NAL and NTS ? I bought both early 2016 and was thinking of selling them with the recent NAL comeback. Ty

rafiki you jumping back into HOS with the drop post earnings?

Haven't yet, watching pretty close.

Anyone jumping in on HOS today?

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Has anyone done the math of how much cash would be leftover if HOS sold their entire fleet and just drew down debt and repaid their outstanding bonds??

Anyone jumping in on HOS today?

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Has anyone done the math of how much cash would be leftover if HOS sold their entire fleet and just drew down debt and repaid their outstanding bonds??


Want to understand the absolute worse case scenario, assuming day-rates stay this way for the next 10 years.

Would equity-holders be wiped out?

if day rates stay where they are the entire industry goes bankrupt. corps arent earning enough to pay capex so in the long run at this pricing level there is no osv industry.

which is silly of course. so day rates will have to rise eventually. problem is now you have guys like glf and probably tdw too who are so stretched on their balance sheet they are operating down to cash break even. its a horrible dynamic.

not to get too much into hos in this thread, but my guess is next 12 months suck until you get a bankruptcy or restructuring of some sort. 2018 numbers will probably be decent, and I think you can get to a 15-20$ stock price on that.

GLFs entire fleet is pretty much useless in this environment btw. HOS is stacking 300s. GLF deosnt even have 300s

STRZA is a bit frustrating that its being sold here, now that Power ratings are through the roof, and since they smartly moved survivors remorse to air right after Power, its getting great ratings too. Cant believe it took them that long to do it.

With outlander and power likely to get good syndication money in 3-4 years 32$ takeout is kind of ****. based on takeout circular ev/ebitda on 2017 internal forecasts isnt even industry average trading levels.

I think it's fine to go into any past two positions you posted on like HOS, PRSC, POST etc. Everyone always values updates on how you view things currently etc.

Thanks for the follow up thoughts on HOS and PRSC

Will HOS be able to sell the OSV and MPSV vessels at book value if they needed to raise cash??

hell no. book values based on OSV usage. outside oil and gas next use has way lower value.

but it wont come to this as they have cash and are undrawn on their facility. glf and tdw will go bankrupt before hos ever does and industry is repaired.

tdw reporting monday night, curious where they are in regards to convenants. they warned a few months ago they may breach and be unable to come to terms with lenders.

Hey Ahnuld, I'm curious if you are still holding or like the picks "in the states" you mentioned liking back on January 2, 2016? Other than Rolls Royce (RYCEY) they are all down YTD.


https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...l1gp6JAvTQs9gH