You decided to post this here (inform OP) instead taking action all by yourself and pm OP...

-EV dude

I don't think anyone expects OP to actually do this so no real loss of EV.

OP, are you buying puts? or just watching

My first priority is long out of the money OCT SPY puts, maybe like 102 or 117 playing for SPY 80 later this year.

Once I get that trade settled I will look into FB puts. My capital is kinda limited right now.

Which will make this all the sweeter when this amateur kicks some of your asses at supposedly your own game.

How did you come to this conclusion? What is your valuation based off of?

1. Current P/E = 90 so yeah even in a normal environment let's get realistic and divide that by 3 and we are already talking under $10.

2. All the shares that will be getting dumped on the market after lockups later this year

3. Peak Facebook
translation: growth has peaked, user interest wanes, stock price goes down, down, down

Oh yeah, market crash later this year too ... techs gets slaughtered, as they always do when the market moves into risk-off mode.

you know you can buy 1 contract for those spy puts for well under $100. At the same time you could buy fb march 2013 10 puts for 30c. Are you saying you dont have $130 to invest?

how will it make it sweeter that you have limited capital? This means the nominal amount you will profit will be smaller.

I don't know why people bother trying to put a P/E multiple on something like facebook.

Time is probably better spent on other valuation metrics/methods/analysis than trying to argue for 50x multiple vs 80x vs 100x vs 200x or whatever.

No I'm saying it will be sweeter for an amateur to kick some ass,
when I'm sure most of the haters would just say STFU newb you don't know.

(obv you're right it would be better to have more $$ to invest)

But for the SPY puts I'm looking at spending a couple few hundred, and it depends on which ones whether they are one contract or several.

That will be my first trade (never traded before) when I get started with that,
then I will look at FB puts.

OP is like:








Haters gonna be like:

In the other thread I said you were talking crazy and here you go posting more nonsense, including that you are "spending a couple few hundred." Just stop, you are like highpsiguy's annoying high school freshman child.

Maslow's hammer.

Why is this thread still here?

You're right. That's probably why I don't buy companies like facebook huh?

Make the bet or stop posting