Does anyone like this trade idea? His blog post says that his site will be arriving q1 2017. Will it have a size able impact on Amaya's share price? Thx for any input.

amaya may be a short but this will have almost no impact

Agree 100%

Was going to start a thread but found this -- It seems David Einhorn has just acquired ~4 million shares of AYA (as per HSDB article). I guess someone smart thinks it's a long.

Einhorn sucks tho

Why do you think amaya is a short? Aren't the biggest hits already over. Leaving grey area countries and moving to casino/sportsbook strategy. Cutting down expenses etc, isn't it becoming attractive, sure there is risk but they seem to know what they are doing imo. I think longterm they seem like a good investment, the upside is brighter than the downside. I mean unibet isn't worth over 2billion because of the 2% they get from poker its the sport betts and casino bringing in the money and thats what amaya is going after.

I don't know enough about you, I've read some of the threads where you pick stocks. You seem sharp. I'm guessing you are a numbers guy so what are the numbers telling you that I'm missing? The p/e is 45ish you don't think the casino, sports betts and savings will result in better earnings? Sure poker is going down but the money isn't in poker anymore. And they are growing the casino, sport bett side. Short seems risky imo.

babaysteps, everything you wrote isnt really playing out in the numbers though. look at the non poker revs, topping out quarter over quarter this year. poker is declining. They are horrible at expense management, just shoving everything into other. not to mention they have a **** ton of debt. Basically with poker declining all the value accretes to the debt holders, there isnt much left over for equity holders. best mgmt team in the world cant overcome secular decline and too much debt

I would rather shortsell RIO-poker

I knew poker was dying when it was no longer on tv. I think it was sort of a white swan. You had someone named chris moneymaker winning the world series in 2003. Then from 2003 to 2006 you had this massive property boom, and online poker started becoming a thing right along with it. People believed that there would no longer be economic cycles in that period, adn that we had solved downturns! You had the largest bubble built up right along with it. Im surprised the good times lasted as long after 2007 as it did.

That combination of events will probably not happen again for at least another 100 years or so. It was good while it lasted though.

Given how few fish there are on Pokerstars right now, I do not have high hopes that their casino play will pay off as big as some think. Most pokerstars players will not be very good customers for that. They should have tried that 10 years ago. It is one big reg fest now, and they tend to not be the stupid gambler type that will blow a lot of money on casino games.

I see $2.4B in debt, vs 200M in FCF...

also they are raising the rake in poker, and the declining revenue aren't that bad.

While this doesn't sound like the best stock to go long, i'm not really sure it's a short either for your reasons.. at least, not for now...

What would happen to the stock price if amaya announces to sell pokerstars now

2.8 billion in debt, they owe an earnout payment in feb. and those metrics on declining revs generally equal bankruptcy. rake increase was late march, already incorporated into Q2.

The debt might be a problem
they need to really grow that casino the next few years. I mean at least they are trying, but damn they overpaid for amaya when they bought it.

probably slightly overpaid, partly they were banking on US legalizing poker (cali legislation doa).

I agree they really need casino to pick up but its stagnated last couple quarters. im not currently short but might reapply my short position soon

good work lads

http://www.pokernewsreport.com/rumou...kerstars-20965

lol..

not sure if they sell the whole amaya or just stars/tilt.
plus certainly they aren't going to sell at a huge loss... they'd rather bust in a couple of years imho.

100% you say?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanva.../#5d72a1564c25

baazov pumping the stock on monday...

is he serious? lmao.

Any more current thoughts on AYA now that they've shed some light on the VIP scheme changes? They haven't said (afaik) that this money is going to rec players, so I assume it's flowing right through to their own bottom line?

Curious how big of an impact this will have for anyone familiar with their financials.

I had AYA in my portfolio for a while, but sold after Bazaov dumped and the price went up. Imo AYA isn't much better than an average investment at this point. Compared to other opportunities in the market I don't want to tie up capital in an average investment. I invest on logic rather than numbers(not that I have anything against math), and Amaya just wasn't logical for me anymore. When the merger rumors with Will Hill were floating around I thought I'd have a decent payday.

Some people ITT mentioned poker but that's of course only a small percentage of AYA's business and even if they managed to get into America, and a second poker boom miraculously happens company growth is still unlikely to be substantial nor sustainable.

If you're looking for a place to put your money for a long term investment try real estate, alcohol, or oil.

its 70% of their business

I knew they controlled 70% of the online poker market but I thought they were more diversified than that? Still thought that probably makes them even worse of an investment.