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Old 05-07-2017, 01:10 AM   #51
grizy
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Has anyone done any research into SPG?

A quick glance at their ratings seems to suggest most analysts think this retail downturn is either temporary and won't really blow them up.

Only became aware of them because of ZeroHedge.... yea i know...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-generate-cash
ZeroHedge as usual fails at doing its homework.

SPG and other developers like them have surprisingly small downsides with their existing properties and recent developments are mixed use properties (read giant apartments right on top or next to the malls) that have built in traffic AND much higher property values.

The industry already adapted. Traditional standalone shopping malls are dying. Companies like SPG are not.
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Old 05-09-2017, 01:29 AM   #52
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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ZeroHedge as usual fails at doing its homework.

SPG and other developers like them have surprisingly small downsides with their existing properties and recent developments are mixed use properties (read giant apartments right on top or next to the malls) that have built in traffic AND much higher property values.

The industry already adapted. Traditional standalone shopping malls are dying. Companies like SPG are not.
I mean SPG does have a pretty significant exposure to SHLD and M though. Won't cripple them by any means, but certainly headwinds.
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Old 05-09-2017, 10:01 PM   #53
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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I believe the future is too complicated to predict because the human brain isn't powerful enough to process all of the variables to any degree of accuracy, but with that said, I love to think about it Feel free to bash me if you want, but this is just my random thought I've had this year and it's super naive/new to me so might have a glaring hole I missed.


I think housing prices in major cities is going to COLLAPSE once the vast majority of people use self driving cars. Not only will transportation times be way quicker (no more slow drives in the fast lane, no more waiting for some idiot to stop texting when the light turns green)...but there will be less accidents, speed limits can increase dramatically, and no more road rage as you can just sit and play video games in your car while you head home. (plus the efficiency of merging and intersections will skyrocket reducing traffic congestion tremendously)

Here's why I think that. In my city you can buy 9 acres for $3.5 mill (I know I know in your city it's way higher). Or you can drive 45 minutes away and buy 20 acres for $80K (again, I know I know, lol Idaho). Here's the thing, if you got rid of traffic, upped the speed limits from 55 to 85, and let me play video games while I rode in my car, not only would it take ~12 minutes instead of 55ish, but I would have fun for those 12 minutes).


I think self driving cars will allow people to spread out. And while big cities like New York will still have everyone on top of each other (some people just like living that way) other cities like Spokane/Seattle/others will have prices collapse as people "spread out" to the cheap and still easy to get to the "countryside."


(again, feel free to bash, it's a random idea I came up with that I'm sure many others have thought of before me, but it's my prediction...it will kill malls as people will shop online + not mind traveling around to random locations as travel will be much easier, so they won't demand everything be "all together" like it is nowadays)
I've been thinking the same thing. With much faster, safer transportation to and from cities, acres in the boonies might be worth a lot more.
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:51 PM   #54
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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I think housing prices in major cities is going to COLLAPSE once the vast majority of people use self driving cars. Not only will transportation times be way quicker (no more slow drives in the fast lane, no more waiting for some idiot to stop texting when the light turns green)...but there will be less accidents, speed limits can increase dramatically, and no more road rage as you can just sit and play video games in your car while you head home. (plus the efficiency of merging and intersections will skyrocket reducing traffic congestion tremendously))
Self driving cars is the biggest fantasy business out there. Might work in controlled settings but never in reality. Imagine the added cost and maintenance just for this feature. In addition, nobody has figured out the insurance and liability aspects for these vehicles. They will also have to be approved state by state. 25+ years minimum.
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:58 PM   #55
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

This is the current state of the art.



Five years will see widespread deployment to many cities.

Not sure why it'll affect real estate prices. Satellite suburbs still need to be built; they're being built right now without issues so I don't see how SDC is going to change that.
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Old 05-10-2017, 10:01 PM   #56
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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This is the current state of the art.



Five years will see widespread deployment to many cities.

Not sure why it'll affect real estate prices. Satellite suburbs still need to be built; they're being built right now without issues so I don't see how SDC is going to change that.
5 years? LOL. It would take NJ and NY 5 years to even approve.
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Old 05-10-2017, 10:02 PM   #57
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

Once you have something with 1/3 of the fatalities of regular cars(eventually 1/100th), that cuts gridlock and parking and new infrastructure needs, it gets adopted very quickly
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:57 AM   #58
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
This is the current state of the art.



Five years will see widespread deployment to many cities.

Not sure why it'll affect real estate prices. Satellite suburbs still need to be built; they're being built right now without issues so I don't see how SDC is going to change that.
Curious to see how they perform in -25 and snow, or freezing rain. I'm a lot more comfortable with the minority report version where they're all bots and they all work on one grid sending real time data to each other constantly. I'm a bit nervous about mixed use, but I obviously no nothing about how it all works.

Anyway few years from now probably seems like a good time to sell your Midas or Mr Lube place. Gotta think we're on pace for way less cars on the road?
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:03 AM   #59
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Curious to see how they perform in -25 and snow, or freezing rain.
Well they won't be deployed there at first. There's a reason FL law already allows driverless autonomous cars, and NY doesn't as yet.
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Anyway few years from now probably seems like a good time to sell your Midas or Mr Lube place.
They've got many years in them yet, but yeah. Going to be a tough time when electric cars ramp up.
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Gotta think we're on pace for way less cars on the road?
Why? You'd still have the same number of people moving around, or more since transportation would be cheaper and easier. Parking would be reduced and there'd be more laneways. Far less gridlock.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:16 AM   #60
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Well they won't be deployed there at first. There's a reason FL law already allows driverless autonomous cars, and NY doesn't as yet.

They've got many years in them yet, but yeah. Going to be a tough time when electric cars ramp up.

Why? You'd still have the same number of people moving around, or more since transportation would be cheaper and easier. Parking would be reduced and there'd be more laneways. Far less gridlock.
Thing is if I'm giving up the act of actually driving and these things are super smart/reliable, I think I'd finally be up for mass car sharing. The last personal attachment to the vehicle to me is when you give up the steering wheel. Outside of people who use vehicles for business (which I guess would be me) and families who need car seats (and even that could be shared), I think a lot of people would be down for ordering your car with what time you have to be at the office, and go. I'm pretty anti the idea of losing my car, so if I'm considering it, a ton of others would too. Take that upkeep/insurance cost off my plate all day (or drastically reduce). If that's one more vacation per year in my pocket, I'm in.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:24 AM   #61
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

Except you could have a pod to yourself, with a work table, or TV, for less than half the cost of a taxi. The driver seat is gone and so is the gearbox, steering columns, etc. These things will be mini limos - think the front gone and the entire cabin like the back of a limo.

Perhaps that's conducive to ride sharing mass adoption. Haven't really thought about it. Maybe you're right. But my hunch is that it'll be so cheap that everyone will want their own pod. And will drive a lot more. All members of one car families can now go anywhere at any time.

And there will be mass adoption, quickly. Imagine the parent time saved not having to drive the kids to school or practice or to their friends - just get an autonomous pod where the doors stay locked until they're at their destination. Imagine being able to work in a limo on the commute each day. Who would keep their car except the rich? Every single brain you see right now focusing on driving a car will be freed up for leisure or work or hobby time.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:51 AM   #62
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

Thing is the cost to insure and maintain a little pod or a full car is about the same. Little pods here in Canada can still only be so little to deal with snow. People with kids can't have that small a pod. So I don't see ownership costs going down that much outside of fuel costs. That's the main reason I'd be up for being rid of the cost of maintaining those. Or you'd see 2 car families drop down to 1 car + 1 shared pod. Either way, bad news for the maintenance industry, and in time contraction of number of dealerships.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:57 AM   #63
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

I'm not talking about owning a pod, I'm talking about a taxi pod.
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:10 PM   #64
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

https://qz.com/781113/how-florida-be...-driving-cars/

Interesting article on the reality of SDCs. Until they solve the liability issue, manufacturers won't produce them.
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:53 PM   #65
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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This is the current state of the art.



Five years will see widespread deployment to many cities.
The replacement car cycle is 14 years.

Unless autonomous cars come out tomorrow or your definition of "widespread" is < 5% then I'm very skeptical.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:46 PM   #66
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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The replacement car cycle is 14 years.

Unless autonomous cars come out tomorrow or your definition of "widespread" is < 5% then I'm very skeptical.
Exactly!

How many cars have radar assisted braking or computer controlled steering/self parking? Way less than 5%.

Satellite radio has been available for 10+ yrs and its not even in 10% of the fleet.

Also, imagine the maintenance cost of an SDC. If one sensor fails you will need to get it repaired. The SDC option alone would probably add $10,000 to the cost of a car.
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:00 PM   #67
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

yeah, I dunno how fast the adoption is. A year or so ago I was very bullish but the world moves so slow. We're just blips on the radar and alive for such a short period of time that 20 years seems like a long time to us, but in the grand scheme of things it is nothing. I tend to think around the corner probably means 15-20 years.

Maybe some cities will try to push it faster to help with congestion issues, allow for less parking and more building of housing and all that. Lots of economic growth could come from SDC's in cities.

Also think that they will probably tax usage pretty aggressively to keep people from using them too much. Otherwise all the olds are going to be using those things and going out way more than they currently do. And the roads will be more filled than they are now.
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:08 PM   #68
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

Interest reality check on SDC fantasy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocLK9hKyVU4
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:57 PM   #69
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
I think housing prices in major cities is going to COLLAPSE once the vast majority of people use self driving cars. Not only will transportation times be way quicker (no more slow drives in the fast lane, no more waiting for some idiot to stop texting when the light turns green)...but there will be less accidents, speed limits can increase dramatically, and no more road rage as you can just sit and play video games in your car while you head home. (plus the efficiency of merging and intersections will skyrocket reducing traffic congestion tremendously)...
All this is very cool, and I think your premise is true, but not your conclusion.

In other words, self driving cars will certainly allow people to live further away, but doesn't that just allow MORE congestion, HIGHER density. The city gets bigger, but people still want to live in the city center, and not just the 20 somethings. I'm old, and I still wish I was closer/walking to all the cool restaurants and bars that are downtown.

Next point, the self driving cars transition will be gradual. I don't expect they will insta ban old fashioned cars. Thus, things like streamlined intersections will take a while.

Great thinking, but I think it will be slow/gradual, and actually allow for higher density, or another way of putting it, allow more people to enjoy city center life/work more easily.
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Old 05-12-2017, 08:52 AM   #70
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

I agree that self driving cars are way way off in the future. 20+ years and probably more to become mainstream. There are just way too many obstacles both legally and in the technology. I don't think the tech is even close at this point and it will be at least a decade once the tech does get close.
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Old 05-12-2017, 09:03 AM   #71
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

pokerdox,
Yeah I don't get at all why SDC will change real estate, let alone cause a collapse. People already hate commutes. Are they suddenly going to live much further out because SDC (might) reduce traffic and speed up commutes? People still need infrastructure, services, shops, sports, doctors, tutors etc close by. No one who lives an hour away is going to now live out in the country because of SDC. I don't' see how it'll change real estate at all. Maybe a few more satellite suburbs, but they're already going up like crazy, and real estate hasn't crashed.
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Old 05-12-2017, 11:48 AM   #72
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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Interest reality check on SDC fantasy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocLK9hKyVU4
lolz
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Old 05-12-2017, 12:09 PM   #73
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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pokerdox,
Yeah I don't get at all why SDC will change real estate, let alone cause a collapse. People already hate commutes. Are they suddenly going to live much further out because SDC (might) reduce traffic and speed up commutes? People still need infrastructure, services, shops, sports, doctors, tutors etc close by. No one who lives an hour away is going to now live out in the country because of SDC. I don't' see how it'll change real estate at all. Maybe a few more satellite suburbs, but they're already going up like crazy, and real estate hasn't crashed.
I think telecommuting will have a far greater impact on decentralization than SDCs. First off it is already here and getting more popular and feasible every day. The technology already works and there are no legal hassles, insurance issues or other complications that SDCs will deal with.

As telecommuting becomes the norm rather than the exception we will see far more smaller communities popping up and fewer condensed downtown areas.
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Old 05-12-2017, 12:26 PM   #74
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

I actually think the downtown areas will get bigger because there are positive externalities with a centralized downtown. But I think we'll eat a more LA like situation with a massive semi urban area/downtown area ratio.

Basically I think we will see a lot more urban sprawl like when cars first showed up.
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Old 05-12-2017, 01:59 PM   #75
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Re: shopping center meltdown of 2017

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pokerdox,
Yeah I don't get at all why SDC will change real estate, let alone cause a collapse. People already hate commutes. Are they suddenly going to live much further out because SDC (might) reduce traffic and speed up commutes? People still need infrastructure, services, shops, sports, doctors, tutors etc close by. No one who lives an hour away is going to now live out in the country because of SDC. I don't' see how it'll change real estate at all. Maybe a few more satellite suburbs, but they're already going up like crazy, and real estate hasn't crashed.
Agreed.

This vvv is basically correct imho.

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I actually think the downtown areas will get bigger because there are positive externalities with a centralized downtown. But I think we'll eat a more LA like situation with a massive semi urban area/downtown area ratio.

Basically I think we will see a lot more urban sprawl like when cars first showed up.
SDC's will allow for more commuting, from a little further. Cities can grow. Some pressures will allow more people to move further out, but other pressures will make cities even more attractive. Growth is.
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