Thank you guys, just would like to add a few points:
DJI in Aug, 1929: 380.33
DJI in Aug, 2022: 31,510.44
4.86% cagr
DJI in Aug, 1932: 73.16
DJI in Aug, 2022: 31,510.44
6.97% cagr
So, even in the very long term, depending on how wild the market gets, when we do buy matters for our long term returns. And in the long run, we are all dead
* I don´t need to tell you guys that the difference in returns in realistic investing horizons was way more brutal than this right?
We can´t time the market, but we have all the tools to know we are in a huge bull market, or we are in a big bear market, just by looking at a graph, and can adjust our exposures, for example like Intelligent Investor's 50/50, 75/25 or 25/75.
The type of risk I wanted to bring here wasn´t exactly monthly std deviations or so, which are ofc real and important if you, for example, withdraws from your portfolio to survive, but the drawdown risk, which increases as the market goes up and decreases as it goes down. I should have made this point a bit more clearer in my first post.
Yet even Ben Graham's stocks/bonds allocation are in danger nowadays
Diverging a little bit from the main topic, I find interesting that people were more or less assuming the low inflation/low interest rates thing would be the norm forever. Pretty sure if internet forums were a thing in 1979, the talk would be a bit different lol. I would be careful in discarding one portfolio and embracing the other only bc the other outperformed. Even not really being a nit at all
Cheers