First let me say that I am not certain about all the facts in the following post. So anybody who is considering buying this stock needs to double check them as well as investigate further.

A few years ago a few poker players got rich because they followed the advice of a poker playing buddy who was the son of Mr. Mann, I believe who had a company called Mini Med whose stock exploded. Afterwards, Mann started a company, Mannkind, the almost sole purpose of that company being to bring to market a device where diabetics could inhale, rather than inject, insulin. At this point Mann was a philanthropic billionaire who firmly believed in his project and invested a lot of his own money in it.

Again Mann's son touted the stock strongly to his poker buddies and many of them bought it at a price between 15 and 20. Since the device had to go through FDA trial and was years away from being on the market, such a price implies that if it was a success, the price could easily hit 50. At least the buyers at that price must have thought so.

As time went by, the price gradually dropped. More money was raised and I believe much of that came from Mann. I am not sure what the reason was for the drop. I had not bought the stock and wasn't following it. I think some of the reason for the drop was that there were a bunch of competitors including Phizer. On the other hand I was being told that it was almost indisputable that MNKD's product was at least slightly superior.

A few months ago Phiizer, I believe, decided to give up on their inhalable insulin. I'm not sure why. This was both good news and bad news for MNKD because it eliminated a major competitor but put a cloud on the whole concept. MNKD dropped to six dollars.

None of the above, accurate or not, is information that I feel qualified to evaluate. But then about two weeks ago the stock dropped to two. From six. The reason was because Phizer announce that for THEIR version of the device six smokers out of 4000 people who were part of their trial developed lung cancer. No non smokers. This prompted MNKD to announce that they would not pursue partnership deals until the results of their phase 3 trials were announced. I don't know when that is supposed to happen.

Put simply, if we assume the products success means the stock will go to 30 and its failure means zero, your pot odds went from 4-1 to 14-1. Because of a factor that I don't believe will matter to most diabetics. I bought 20,000 shares just for the hell of it, fully realizing that I will probably lose my 40K. But did I make a good bet? Check it out and get back to me.

Well, lots of your friends would rather be in your position than their own...........

FH

These kind of stocks are what I call a punt.

The success rate of these kind of start ups are low but yeah get in at the right time and you can ride the wave however like you said ignoring the facts about the company just write it off as money lost and just smile if you do make money from it.

The only way the company will make money is if more money is pumped in or investors like yourself drive the price up. It will be many many years before the company will release the miracle cure and research/proof of cure is a very long winded process.

Another piece of the puzzle is that in late March, Eli Lilly also cancelled their Inhaled Insulin program with partner Alkermes (ALKS). Even though the data for Phase II was excellent and Phase III was underway. The news was out before Pfizer's announcement of reported cancer in smokers.

I'm not qualified to evaluate the data either but one of the major assumptions when MNKD, Pfizer/Exubera and Lilly/ALKS were evaluated was that there was and would be a major market for Inhaled Insulin. Exubera was a bust and didn't have the market uptake that they expected (some blame the delivery device) and Eli Lilly discontinued the program for fear that the market was no longer as robust as they expected and they weren't going to make enough profit or didn't want to sustain losses (it is/was best delivery device available, size of large pen).

Even though the pot odds have increased, I don't think the increase is nearly as large as you might imagine it to be. If I had to put numbers on it, I would guess it went from 4-1 to maybe 6/8-1, not nearly the overlay I would want when gambling on a lone wolf in biotech.

Good luck with your investment.

Well, they are trading at 50% of tangible book value. So that is interesting. Unfortunately they have basically no revenue and a really high burn rate. One insider buy in March.

It's certainly interesting. You could probably do a lot worse. I'm gonna take a closer look at it.

Last week on a whim a one of my friends decided to play the lottery. He paid $1 for his ticket and a chance at a possible $100 million payout.

No one won that week, so the powerball jackpot is now up to $120 million. I decided to buy a ticket because of my increased pot odds. Also I should note that I have no idea if you can choose between 1 and 15 or 1 and 1000 for each number.

4 7 9 12 15 - 6 gogogogogo!

Is this $30 estimate anything more than just a number you made up? Do you feel that nothing underlying has changed to prompt the price to move down to $2?

This analysis seems grossly over simplistic.

CF,

I'm jealous. Your response >>> My response

Bid now at 2.18...................SELL!

I wish people would address MY point rather than just give their opinion on the situation in general. Namely that if we ASSUME the six dollar price was "right", was the lung cancer news a legitimate reason to slash it by two thirds?

If anyone knew this, they wouldn't be posting on this message board. They would already be pricing yachts and jets. Why don't you ask a more trivial useless question that is impossible to answer?

Who knows? Prices typically overshoot on news in either direction. But I don't think anyone has any idea. I mean, this company is an all-or-nothing pharmaceutical that HAS NO REVENUE. It is about as unpredictable and impossible to value as they come.

Case in point. Apparently one of their officers decided it was worth $5 on March 12. He presumably knows everything there is to know about the company. Isn't working out too well for him.

Simple answer is no, the 2/3 drop is not justified by data from Pfizer, most overreact to bad news. Your topline is effected because Drs won't prescribe the drug due to concerns over cancer.

The $30 seemed like a conservative guess given it was $20 two years ago. The move from $6 to $2 happened in two days so it almost certainly due only to the lung cancer news.

A simplistic argument can still be powerful if its right and most people dismiss it. I bought Schwab when it was beaten down by the entry of deep discount brokers, because of the simplistic reason that I didn't think that small extra saving would persuade a lot of people to move their accounts to less known companies.

Well good job on getting lucky then because it was likely growth estimates that got revised due to the deep discount brokers eating up all the new business moreso than Schwab losing business.
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Edit: That's horse **** I spaced out those characters at random intervals and it left-aligns them... weak

Every single one of his threads are worthless on BFI in my opinion.They can NEVER actually be answered in black and white.They all seem to revolve around theoretical odds,horses,gambling, pot odds/EV comparisons he dreamed up related to the stock market(lol),whatever.

It doesnt matter what you reply..........he just follows it up with an even more moronic/assinine post

Now 2.20...........going up and up!!

There is <0.1% chance this ever makes it to market. The borrow is as tight as a drum; Every share that can be shorted is.

I never speculated in the name, but you would have to think that if Pfizer, who has one of the most sophisiticated and highly funded research teams of any pharma comp, decided to abandon a product midway through phase 3 testing, a product that they had put hundreds of millions of $ into, a product with enormous commercial potential....Well you would have to be a fool to think you were smarter than them.

What happens if I'm short a stock and it goes to $0?

He could have sold his 20,000 shares right before the close at 2.20 and wrapped up a nice $1,000 profit...........that pays for a nice dinner.

No, you did not make a good bet, even given the figures that are predicated on your own assumptions, simply because the odds of it going to 30 are far, far greater than the 14-1 you're getting on your money.

As Yowserrs (a douchebag, but often times a correct one) stated, you aren't smarter than the pharmaceutical specific analytical machine of Pfizer (not to mention the other industrial aversion that seems to surround the product). You are grossly undervaluing their assessment, which by any measure, is likely to be hugely better than your own. The odds of the product coming to market (which is the sole dynamic that will result in a payoff) are certainlly greater than 14-1, thus even with your own figures, you're in with the worst of it by a pretty large margin.

That isn't the question.
The question is- will the stock achieve it's maximum potential value, all of which hinges on one functional dynamic.

In discussions like this, running around like a diaper clad toddler shrieking about daily gains as being evidence of success or daily losses as being evidence of failure is off base. I don't think anyone is saying that it impossible for this stock to rise or fall X basis points in the short term. The ultimate question is whether it will ever become an earning company with a stock price concomitant with it's value, which all revolves around one thing; the odds of that thing happening are greater than the 14-1 he specified.

It makes me happy when people smarter than me quote my posts.

If calling someone out for being a moron makes me a douchebag, well guilty as charged. Being a douchebag pays well though.