I'm gathering ideas for shorts and weekly puts going into each weeks earnings. I'm sure many of us are well read and familiar with certain sectors and industries and can identify good short opportunity or even long. So add to or add more companies.

I think the Fedex quarter may be the writing on the wall of what's to come in cyclicals. Amazon is also closing many distribution centers. Fedex quarter is being attributed to the declining macro says the CEO and one analyst atleast I saw is calling it a cyclical downturn. My focus going into next week is finding cyclicals that are going to have surprise earnings to the downside.

For next week Mon 26th through Friday 30th

Tuesday
Cracker Barrell CBRL
from what I read has struggled keeping the young and older demographic happy. Has puts looking at $90 or $80 strikes

Blackberry BB
Already been struggling awhile so I doubt there is room for sales slowdown from demand. Lots of liquid weeklys I'm looking to spread.

Wednesday
Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated (BSET)
Furniture enough said. Sales already in decline

Cintas CTAS
Large footprint in all businesses. Read some of the last earnings call. CEO was real upbeat so any downward surprise will probably see a big stock reaction. Maybe like FDX. I think FDX was upbeat in previous call in July

Paychecks PAYX
Should be a good gauge on small businesses. Provider of human resource, payroll, and benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.

I think there could be a LOT more downside in some of the high flying tech names.

For example, SHOP is selling for 7-8 times REVENUE! Even after it's huge losses, it is trading for this level of sales? ???????? At it's peak price, it's market cap may have been as large as it's addressable market? Even today, it is a MULTI billion dollar ($37B) market cap company. If they stumble on another earnings report, the share price could well crater. I could make an argument that SHOP would be richly valued if it took a 90% downturn from here.

OR

How about oil companies? Crude oil was down $4+ a barrel on Friday.

I think there is a much greater chance that Putin suddenly decides to leave Ukraine OR he decides to leave office OR he has a tragic accident? Maybe he falls out of window that he is trying to open? IF that happens, I am going to guess that Russia will very quickly look for a negotiated peace and will also look to get back into the world's economic system. Thus, oil & gas might go down in price SUBSTANTIALLY.

I don't think the above scenario is very likely at this point...BUT a month ago, it might have been a 1-2-3% chance of happening, it might be 20% or 30% now?

Another area that I think is going to have TREMENDOUS problems are companies that have large amounts of debt that need to refinanced or rolled over.

Won't the strong dollar hurt tech too because they export a lot? I was thinking this strong of a dollar move may not be priced into guidance. So if the dollar keeps ripping higher there are going to be some big adjustments to heavy exporters.

Why? What puts Putin so much closer to resignation or an open window today than last month?

I think WGO could get killed on earnings. Very high percent of float short, however, so it could also get squeezed, given the times we live in.

There is a "special military operation" going on in Ukraine that involves Russia. This has been going on for about 6 months or so. Whatever is going on in Ukraine, it does not appear to be going to Russia's plan. This is a complicated subject & there are dedicated threads for this particular topic.

HOWEVER, whatever is going on in Ukraine is requiring Russia to go to a "partial" national mobilization. Some people inside Russia don't like this, and think that it is a bad idea. Some people think that this is a such a bad idea, they are leaving Russia.

There are also reports that Russia has lost 50K+ troops (?) and that Ukraine now has more tanks & armored transport than they did at the beginning of the war. Ukraine has certainly gotten some equipment from NATO, but Russia has contributed even more than NATO?

Any way that you slice it, it is not good. The question is just how bad it is for Russia. I would imagine that if it gets bad enough, Putin may be replaced. At the beginning of the special operation, that likelihood was pretty small. Now? It is much greater. That is is all

Bought CBRL put Oct 21 80.00,

BB Sep 30 5.00 puts looking at the $4 and $3.50 too. In 2019 it had a really big % move off bad earnings. 3.50 -.03 delta

UNFI Oct 21 35.00 Put

UNFI reports Tues morning before bell

Picked up a few Cracker Barrel 90s for 10/21 at 2.00 when it opened up a bit this AM. One near my office is dying for sure. In depth research I know.

Thursday we got Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY also. It just seems like so much negativity is already priced in anything positive that comes out on the call could move bbby up. I think it's more likely to sell off though but I'm not going crazy oversized on puts on this one. I think I am going to straddle it a little with calls. With a 30 year fixed mortgage at 7% right now I bet all these furniture and home furnishing companies are going to miss. Probably even Lowes, Home Depot. Housing starts took a dive recently. Too early to tell if they break trend but all this homebuilder inventory has gotta be just sitting with rates so high AND prices.

Seems like a rough time in the market domestically - buying power has decreased due to all the printed money yet wages are the same as they were pre COVID. If some guy was making 80k pre COVID and now his groceries/gas/etc have gone up 20% yet his income is still 80k, we're headed in the wrong direction. Seems the ideal recipe for a flat/stagnant market for a couple years.

Set a limit at 3 and got filled on a dip this AM. Not bad, thanks for the idea

Nike NKE big 13% drop off the earnings call. Think it was supply chain problems. I got a couple $85 Oct yesterday. NKE was the only other one I was looking. MU is today after the close too. MLKN was big too. Might follow through

These are just the ones I'm looking at short biased. I'm mostly trying to look at ones dependent on consumer spending. I don't know a lot of the names this week. I'm looking at CNBC's earnings calendar. Anybody see any other good ones this week? We got good volatility off of many earnings last week. That was even with so many good or decent quarters. Many had good revenue growth. Imagine the volatility when they surprise on revenue misses when economic growth slows. This week I'm watching these. Maybe more as the week goes on.

Tuesday
Acuity Brands (AYI) stock
SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH) puts and stock

Wednesday
Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) stock
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) puts

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) stock
I know this one used to be a poor performing perineal deep value penny stock for years. Not sure what changed but it looks like a lot of good things are baked in if it is still trading over $14 from $7 in summer and $2 last year.

bought a couple monthly puts and shorted some stock on AEHR. Stop loss is 15.90 to 16 roughly. Kill candle here at top of trend resistance from August. Put on one LEVI put not gonna mess with anymore of these if the market stays strong.

lol AEHR put out a couple press releases and popped the stock from 14 to 15 after hours. LEVI tanking on earnings. down 6% on the day now. gonna be a gap down and probably will follow through red

Looking at trucking company Heartland Express HTLD and tech company Duck Creek DCT for tomorrow Wednesday 12th. DCT stock has dropped big the last two earnings days. Last quarter it gapped down 19% on earnings. Tomorrow looks like the same scenario possibility as they report at 5pm after hours again. HTLD no options. I might do a put spread on DCT. Pepsi PEP reports too but I looked back a couple years atleast and didn't see any volatility at all on earnings. I would expect they get supply chain problems like everybody else though. I don't know. Guess it's not a factor. They probably run better than Coke anyway. When I was running a restaurant in a busy city I couldn't get an on the fly delivery at any time or day when we forgot our order.

Pepsi crushed it and raised full year top and bottom. Might say a lot for consumer spending being stronger than I anticipate considering prices are now extremely higher on the products. Pepsi is one of the best run companies these days though from what I've read in the past.

Dominos DPZ reports quarterly earnings before market open tomorrow 10/13 at 10am. It has always been one of those that has a ton of movement after earnings especially if it's a positive market reaction. Years past they used to always report premarket or afterhours because I remember seeing all the consistent gaps. I guess once things started going south they switched to regular session lol.

Friday has an insane amount of banks and financials.

Citigroup Inc (C)
Federal Bank LTD
First Republic Bank (FRC)
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Oberoi Realty LTD ()
PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC)
Shift Inc
Tata Elxsi LTD
Tomtom NV ()
Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH)
Us Bancorp (USB)

So far this week NFLX is the only one I'm watching. It has a history of major earnings reactions. Usually to the downside. Looks like they put a warning about subs this afternoon. I'm full size in USO weeklies 70 and 69 strike. Lot of news out today. all trends are down. Had CANO 6 and 5 puts to protect my call. 6's were up 2,700% at the highest. Biggest option gain I've ever had. Took profit on the $5 strike and one $6. NERV fell apart today too. Wish it had had options those would have been something. Was trying to nail shorts in it for weeks a month ago

USO puts that is. oil red today doing its own thing

Massive earnings week coming up. Don't have a strong opinion on anything. I would think UPS would be bad off of FedEx and Intel, Texas Instruments and Skechers SKX will be weak. Most of last weeks earnings were actually pretty bad yet the stocks were up. I think we are at such an oversold spot in overall market it is due a bounce at least. Hard to look for downside. So I may just look at O'Reilly Auto ORLY long side because with used cars being so expensive more people are fixing up older cars vs buying new. Autozone beat earnings last quarter too. Autozone AZO used to do pretty well in 2008,2009 times. AZO ORLY stock prices are near highs.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...4/earnings.jpg

Jeez there goes ORLY. Major breakout. Was going to wait for earnings. "In trading as in fencing there is the quick and the dead" - Linda Rasche

Gonna take a few puts on META off their bump today. No good news out of their for awhile and they burning mad money on the VR stuff that is no where close yet.

Sold half the Meta 130 puts for ~50% gain on the open. yolo the rest

Follow me to freedom boys.

Or probably not considering this hit is gonna get me just over even on the year.

Nice trade. Sure was one heluva drop