How about you start a new thread talking about stocks you've picked, going through why you've picked them, and then we can all talk about it there.

You've hand waved a lot in this thread, eg:

This isn't an argument about being 'right'. You're trading and this is an investment thread, and worse still, you haven't actually given up any information that you know about any topic. Your posts have been "no, im giving him what he wants", "i dont want to argue with you", and the only hint of information you've given is something about discounting a certain time period for your analysis, and when questioned about it, you hand waved it again.

So here's what you'll do. You'll stop posting in this thread. You'll start your own thread about some ideas you have for trading stocks. Tell us a little about what you're thinking. Then we can argue. But this is a discussion board, and nothing tilts me more than anyone who is "I'm just giving my opinion, but I don't want to argue!". Sorry, its a two way street, this isn't a speaker box so you can listen to yourself talk.

btw, read this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philoso...urden_of_proof

And understand that logically, when someone asks for some kind of theory behind your statement, you can't flip it on to them. Maybe this is why you're not doing so well on the politics forum.

Wow.

You win, guys. The thread is yours. Bang up job.

OK here goes,
Country you live in: U.S.
Income: 3-5k/month from poker (I'm a full time student)
Risk Tolerance: Medium --wouldn't want to see it all go up in smoke
Timeframe for investment: Long term, with small bit of short term gamble
Debt: None

I'm graduating in December so I won't have a set salary until next Spring but I already have the proverbial 6-12 month emergency fund at my local bank. My grandfather recently passed and left me a lock box/key containing a bunch of one oz. gold bars with PAMP SUISSE on them...there are probably 15 or so I didn't count them :/, plus some silver coins too. I realize gold keeps going up and up, but I'd rather liquidate half of them or something now and save the rest for when the world ends...lol

My question is, what should I do with them? If I take them to a coin store or something, do I have to pay taxes on them since they were a gift/bequeathed? Should I use my emergency account to fund something like a Fidelity account and make this gold stash my emergency money? I just like having a few dollars stowed away in the bank, if my cat needs surgery, etc, I don't want to have to go change out gold to pay for it.
I'd like to get into a long term fund for retirement like VFIFX or similar, and do some shorter term I think...or maybe just buying a bunch of something like AT&T or Coke will give me some dividends consistently that would be smarter? Thanks in advance guys for any help

Ok, looking for advice on what to do with my money. I can get ~3% in saving accounts / bonds, looking for something a little better. Want a pretty low risk investment as have plans for the money in 1-2 years.

Country I live in: UK
Income: £15k / month
Risk Tolerance: Low
Timeframe: 1-2 years.
Debt: none
Amount: ~ £200k


Would also like to set something up long term for my retirement (40 years) maybe £20k or so. Could take more of a risk with that..

Thanks for your help.

thanks for your responses.

Ive been really confused about this concept for a while now, hopefully u guys can help explain this . I have read a few books such as coffee house investor, four pillars of investing, etc. And they all repeatedly said that nobody can beat the stock market. Even an ape has as good of a chance as a mutual manager to get lucky and pick the right stocks. The stock market is already efficiently priced, etc.

My question is how is it possible to know which stocks to invest if the stock market prices are already efficient? like how is it possible to beat the market without being lucky?

You don't. I believe the stats are 75% of all fund managers don't beat the index (the market). Usually casual investors get buried trying to beat the index, so they are better off just riding an index out, in most cases.

Most people by nature do the exact opposite in the stock market of what they should be doing. They sell when the price is low (to get out) and they buy when the price is high (because they feel it is "safe"). Warren Buffet says the same thing, that you should be doing the opposite of what others are doing. Its hard to do this, because usually when the prices are low something bad, or something that is perceived to be bad, is affecting the stock price.

The "method" of beating the market is in investing in companies where the intrinsic value of the company is, in your analysis, worth more than the current stock price.

Example : You want to invest in ABC company. Some bad news comes out surrounding their CEO (make up some sort of story here) and the stock price takes a hit. Whatever is happening to the CEO has nothing to do with normal operations or sales figures of the company, but it brought down the stock price of the company under what your calculations of the fair price of that company is, so you buy the stock. Over time, the market value of the price goes back up, and you make that profit.

For the casual investor, it is extremely hard to beat the market unless you are lucky. This is why most people recommend you just go along with the market (Bogle/Vanguard philosophy), making regularly timed investments over long periods to ride out any volatility and make long term gains.

good answer wil.

I would just add that you can also beat the market by finding ndervalued companies not covered by analysts because they are too small to be covered or for institutional investors to bother with.

Country: US
Income: 100k/year
Risk Tolerance: High
Timeframe for investment: Long term (retirement)
Debt: None
Age: 25


This thread is awesome. Here's the skinny. I make 100k/year at a regular job. I have zero debt, no car payments, and rent an apt. I invested about $21k in physical gold bars from kitco at $1033/oz. I have $3k sitting in my tradeking account but haven't actually bought any stocks and will put $5k into my roth ira at vanguard tomorrow. I have 6 month living put aside and will increase that to 1yr over the next 6 months.

Here are my questions:
1. Is Vanguard the right place to open my roth account? Other suggestions?
2. If I leave it in Vanguard then which funds should I put it in? My friend suggests the
VFIFX (Target Retirement 2050) since I'm 25 and can handle the "aggressive" handling of the fund
3. Should I spread it out? $3k in VFIFX and $2k elsewhere?
4. Should I be doing something else with my money?

Thanks in advance!

Firstly - you are in great shape financially, compared to to 99% of all the other idiots in the world.

1. If you stay ONLY in mutual funds, its not bad. I worked for Vanguard, so I know the brokerage account trades are expensive. If you want a brokerage account to buy individual securities, I would go fidelity.
2. Vanguard 500 or total stock market index.
3. I dont' like target retirement, I prefer 100% stocks until approx 15 years to retirement, but thats my opinion.
4. Thats up to you, in the end.

Awesome. I forgot to mention. I have about $20k in my 401k. I put in 6% of my paycheck and the company matches half of that.

Couple more questions if you don't mind:
1. Why do you like Vanguard 500 and total stock market index as opposed to the VFIFX fund?
2. How should I allocate my 401k funds if i'd like to be aggressive? My 401k allows me to put money in the following funds:

Morley Stable Value Adv
Goldman Sachs Govt Inc A
American Funds Bd Fd Am R3
Franklin Income R
T.Rowe Price Retiremnt 2020 R
T.Rowe Price Retiremnt 2030 R
T.Rowe Price Retiremnt 2040 R
Pax World Balanced Indiv Inv
American Funds Am Bal R3
Eaton Vance Lg Cap Value A
Davis NY Venture A
Calvert Social Invmt Eq A
American Funds Gr Fd R3
Riversource Mid Cap Value A
Oppenheimer Sm & Md Cp Val A
Brandywine Fund
Allianz NFJ Sm Cap Value A
Oppenheimer MainStrSmCp A
BlackRock Sm Cap Gr Eq Instl
American Funds EuroPacifc R3
Seligman Communs & Info A

Curious what ya'll think about this as an addition to an existing portfolio or about any of these companies specifically:

Ok,
1) I like the vanguar d500 and total stock market index because they give you good all around exposure in a low cost index fund. The costs are extremely cheap compared to other funds. I just like them, and recommend them in general, they are something you just can't go wrong with. Note : when i say don't go wrong, I dont' mean you can't lose money. VFIFX is a target retirement fund. I believe these funds start out something like 90% stocks, 10% bonds, and over time they will move the stock investments over to bond investments. Its a good idea as a "set it and forget it" type of investment. I just don't believe in that strategy, there is no such thing as a "one size fits all". Every person has different situations in their life. My real issue is that 10% that is in bonds. With a 40 year timeframe, I see very little reason to have 10% of your retirement money in bonds. You have the time to ride out the variance, you should be aggressive and let that 10% help you along the way. Every dollar counts, why give up any advantage you have?

Remember, this is my view. If you went 100% in VFIFX and never made 1 change, that will wind up being fine. I just never like leaving money on the table.


2) The general rule of "aggressive" is taking 100, subtracting your age, and that is the % of your overall retirement portfolio that should be in stocks. I say if you have a long term timeframe, especially if you are under 35, to go 100% stock.


As for the other fund choices, I would recommend finding a large cap and a small cap and maybe some sort of international (70/20/10 % allocation sounds about right) and invest it that way. I would recommend nothing in bonds, unless you are over 50 years old. I might get attacked for that view, but thats ok. Like I said, everyone needs growth, and if you have the timeframe, go with it. Maximize your money.


I do NOT advise you to go with my recommendations if you do not feel comfortable. Talk to people, do some research, do some searches on the allocations and do something you feel comfortable with. As with anything, never just blindly follow anyone. I'm just telling you how I would do it.

(If anyone disagrees, please speak up, I'd like to hear different points of view on asset allocations)

Hope this helps.

Country: Canada
Income: 150k+/yr
Amount to invest now: 30-40k
Risk Tolerance: low - medium
Timeframe for investment: 1-3 years
Debt: Car loan (40k, 3 yrs payable in a lump sum whenever, 3.9% interest)
Age: 29

I'm pretty sure the obvious thing to do would be to pay off the car right away but one of my goals in investing money right now is that it should be easily accessible for BR reasons. I'm a BR nit and feel more comfortable having that money at my reach. It's just a mental thing, even if i am overrolled.

Currently I have money sitting in ING direct (TSFA and normal account) and also in my trading account (haven't touched it in a while) and my bank account. I also have 5k in RRSP mutual funds that haven't grown in 3 yrs (fail) but otherwise all my money is on various poker sites.

I just paid my taxes so all this floating money seems like a waste of income. What would be the best way to make that money grow a bit without tying it up for too long? I'd like to be able to get to the money if i need it but unless it'd cost me 20% to do so (like in an RRSP account) it's fine if it's tied up to some extent.

What's the best way to go about this? GICs? Mutual funds?

Eventually I plan on actively trading my money but that won't be for another year at least. I also plan on buying RE next year if my income allows it.

thanks for any suggestion.

Nothing wrong with keeping whatever amount YOU want onhand. Every person is different. I like to have a few thousand bucks around, thats it. If I have more than that I'll do really stupid stuff. I know others with over 50k cash, and they don't waste a dollar of it. You do what makes you comfortable. (I mean, dont' keep 3 million around... but hey, I'm sure Phil Ivey has 3 mill in cash somewhere!)

1-3 years is not normally a suitable timeframe to keep money in a stock mutual fund from my experience. You can take a nasty downturn. If you'd have put, for example, 100k in the stock market 3 years ago today, would you be comfortable if the value was 75k right now? Well, thats probably around what it'd be worth if you did exactly that. And you'd be pissed.

1-3 years I would say an intermediate or short term bond fund would be fine. Some would say a money market, but really at this point keeping it in cash is almost the same thing. If you want to take on a little bit of risk, go into a mixed fund, something that is made up of bonds/stocks. The % breakup is up to you. Some mixed funds are, for example, 70% bonds, 30% stock. Some are the reverse.

Using the example above, if you put 100k into a 70/30 bond/stock fund, and it was worth approx the same value (no change) right now, would you be ok with what happened in the market in the last 3 years? Well, if you bought a balanced (mixed) fund like the wellignton fund from Vanguard, thats what would have happened. But, if we had a nice run the market, it might be worth 115k over those 3 years. Its all dependent on what risk YOU are comfortable with. I wold recommend a bond or balanced fund, since you don't want to take any type of loss over the next few years, especially if you have plans for that money, like real estate.

My risk tolerance is high and I have like 3k to invest speculatively. Is it a good time to get some Goldman sach's stocks now?

This is an investing thread, not a trading thread.

Country: Canada
Income: 50k/year
Amount to invest now: 5k
Risk Tolerance: high
Timeframe for investment: none really
Debt: none
age: 23


I am a recent grad from school just got my first job as an actuarial associate and moved to toronto. Im looking to start investing ~500$ a month and have about 5000 to invest at the moment. I have no timeframe now the only thing i could foresee is in 5 years buying a house/condo. I have no debt.

I recently started looking for ways to get into investing but didnt know where to start and what to do about taking around 500 a month and adding to portfolio.

Do you really have $5k to invest? Meaning, you already paid off all your college debt & have a nice slushy "oh ****" emergency account, probably in the neighborhood of 10k? I only ask because it seems like you're young and just getting on your feet, and these things are frequently overlooked.

For $5k now and $500 extra a month, your best bet is to just invest in index funds. This will keep your money fairly safe and very liquid. Then, reevaluate your situation in five years, because you'll probably want to withdraw most of your investments for a down payment on a house at some point.

Ive already paid off university debt. Hopefully going to be making more money (~3 yrs) once i pass more exams (Actuarial exams). As for now I thought i would start putting away 500$ every month just to get started. Ive done some research on index funds do you have a site that you suggest looking at for my situation?

As for the extra 10k as a cushion. I dont have quite that much more like 3-4 right now as a cushion but I dont have any expenses ATM and if things get really bad I can just move back in with the parents so I dont think I need 10k put aside

live in U.S.A
-just graduated undergrad, going to lawschool in fall 2011
-have about 50k right now, after taxes froma big score in 2008.
-right now all of it is in an ameritrade account in a ETF that tracks the S & P, its about 50% equity 50% debt i believe. invested it their last may and it went from 45k to 50k.
-i have no debt yet but will when i start lawschool in a year
-timeframe= i want to keep it invested until i need a downpayment for a house , i am 21 now i want to use it in about 6-8 years, maybe sooner if i need to but would like not to.
-risk tolerance if 0 is none and 10 is real risky id say a 6.5
-i do not want to use this for law school unless my interest rate on student loans would be higher then the interest rate i get on my portfolio

your student loans will probably be much lower rates than the expected return on a portfolio. Id reduce the amount of fixed income to maybe 25% and put the rest in a basket of equity etfs like eem, russell 2000, an etf that tracks europe and sp500.

Explain the bolded above? Something is very wrong there. If you invested 45k into sometihng that tracks the S&P from last May, I'm wondering where the other 20k is.

Sure. Here's a no-nonsense way to get started. Open up a Roth IRA somewhere like Vanguard, ThinkorSwim, etc. Read up on Roth IRAs, contribution limits, etc. Personally, mine is at ThinkOrSwim, I think that's a good option for just about everybody. Deposit $5k. Buy ticker symbol QQQQ.

Nobody can tell you how much of a cushion to have, but this sounds reasonable.

Just bought a house gonna put about 45k downpaymnet... Most I can afford right now/ need other funds for poker

however I do have about 6k in exxon and cocacola stocks... Should I sell em to add to my downpayment ??

I'm trying to pay this thing off as soon as possible depending how good poker goes next couple years