Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
I think you're overcomplicating it.
I think the correct answer is that you'd be a fool to make a market on something like that on the spot based on your own knowledge since it's something other market participants could easily look up. Why would you want to bet anything on your own 85% confidence interval when you're only going to make a trade when you're wrong?
Maybe there was more context given in the actual question though.
Yeah he wanted very specific answers. I gave him a market of 8-12 MM then he took the ask and i made a new market at 12-15MM then he took the ask and i made a new market at 15-17MM etc. This went on and on for like 5 rounds and he wanted market range and volume offered at each round.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay
This is correct. IRT to the bullets question, the assumption is that the trigger was only pulled once when he asked the question, sorry for the confusion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Oops, for some reason I thought the trigger was pulled twice. Anyway, it doesn't change the fact you want him to always spin for the logical reason that when he shoots and misses, he "exhausts" one empty chamber, making it more likely that he'll shoot a bullet on the next shot then before he shot the first bullet.
P(survive if no spin) = C (4,2) / C (5,2) = 0.6
which is also simply 3/5
P(survive if spin) = C (5,2) / C (6,2) = 0.67
which is also simply 4/6
Article is tldr, I'll get to it later
This is not correct. Odds of survival are better on not spinning the chamber if bullets are loaded consecutively.
A couple other questions i've been asked:
Let's play a game, the goal of the game is to say the number 50. The rules of the game are that you say a number between 1 and 10, and the next player can add a number between 1 and 10. It's a heads up game. Do you want to go first or second, and how do you guarantee you win the game?
A deck of cards is face up, we play this game heads up as well. You can pick any 5 card hand that you want, then the 2nd player can. Then you have the choice of replacing any or all of your cards, 1 time, from the remaining cards in the deck, as does the 2nd player. Do you go first or second, and how do you guarantee you win the game?