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Old 03-23-2017, 08:24 AM   #176
AllinPoker
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Yes, expecting $5-$5.7m revenue and $700-$850k of EBITDA in May depending on how much of the new product they are launching in Q1 ends up shipping out in the quarter. My Rev estimate has come down with the sale of the OMS segment and what appears to be a softening sales in their non-medical device segments. I will be pretty surprised if the stock is not materially by mid November. I don't think the market understands what the increase in volume and ASP of the large orthopedic hand piece will do to their operating margins. May, Sept, and Nov earnings are the events to drive the stock higher here. If they rattle off 3 quarters of $800k ebitda to a run rate of $3.2m/yr and get a 10x multiple, they will have $5m cash on hand come november, no debt, $3.2m * 10 + $5m cash / 4m shares = $9.25/share
Is the new product for $600k at 35% margin still launching this quarter?

10 multiple seems very conservative for a solid growing business that's knocking out $800k per quarter ebitda with no debt and that much cash on hand. I'm hoping the market gives it a nicer valuation by then.
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Old 03-23-2017, 08:05 PM   #177
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Is the new product for $600k at 35% margin still launching this quarter?

10 multiple seems very conservative for a solid growing business that's knocking out $800k per quarter ebitda with no debt and that much cash on hand. I'm hoping the market gives it a nicer valuation by then.
Yeah that's the new product I'm referring to, I'm just not 100% positive that we will see shipments of the product in this May earnings hence my $5-$5.7m range
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Old 04-03-2017, 04:45 AM   #178
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Given no real debt to speak of and their tax assets. As well as 375k of capex in the 6 months to December and apparently under utilised capacity - I guess we should see majority of EBITDA carrying through to free cash flow, do you think?
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Old 04-03-2017, 05:07 PM   #179
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Yep^
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:05 AM   #180
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

The entire company is an investment scam. This thread should be locked.
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:21 AM   #181
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Ok here is one pro-dex on the nasdaq. https://www.google.com/search?q=PDEX...q=PDEX+stock&*

Here is another on on the Phildelphia stock exchange: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...symbol=PDEX.PH

Description: FULL DESCRIPTION

Pro-Dex, Inc. (Pro-Dex), incorporated on March 6, 2002, designs and produces surgical and dental instruments and motion control products used in the medical, factory automation and scientific research industries. The Company operates through four segments: Pro-Dex, OMS, Fineline and Engineering Services Division (ESD). The Pro-Dex segment provides primarily medical and dental instruments using shared production and assembly machines and workforce. The OMS segment is engaged in providing multi-axis motion control applications. The Fineline segment manufactures plastic injection molds for various industries. The ESD segment provides permanent placement and contract services in the fields of engineering, manufacturing and quality to diverse businesses.
The Company caters to hospitals, dental offices, medical engineering labs, scientific research facilities and manufacturing operations around the world. The Company provides engineering consulting services, as well as quality and regulatory consulting services, to a range of industries through EDS. In addition to Pro-Dex, the names Micro Motors and Oregon Micro Systems are used for marketing purposes as brand names. The Company's medical device products are manufactured in its Irvine, California facility, as are its dental products. The Company's medical device products are sold primarily to original equipment manufacturers and its dental products are sold primarily to dental product distributors. In its Beaverton, Oregon facility, the Company designs and manufactures embedded multi-axis motion controllers, which are sold to distributors or original equipment manufacturers in the automation and research industries.
» Full Overview of PDEX.PH

Ok so on their website about the company:

http://www.pro-dex.com/about-us/

Says the company has been in business "for over 40 years". Even that claim cannot be true because it was supposedly founded in 1978 and supposedly listed on the Nasdaq in the 90's. Which would make the company a maximum of 39 years old.

Ok here is different founding date for the company on its earnings statement from capital cube:

Company Profile

Pro-Dex, Inc. engages in designing and producing dental instruments and motion control products, which are used in medical, factory automation and scientific research industries. The company operates through the following business segments: Pro-Dex, OMS, Fineline and Engineering Services Division. The Pro-Dex engages in providing primarily medical and dental instruments using shared production and assembly machines and workforce. The OMS segment provides multi-axis motion control applications. The Fineline manufactures plastic injection molds for a variety of industries. The Engineering Services Division provide permanent placement and contract services in the fields of engineering, manufacturing and quality to diverse businesses. Pro-Dex was founded on January 26, 1994 and is headquartered in Irvine, CA.

CapitalCube does not own any shares in the stocks mentioned and focuses solely on providing unique fundamental research and analysis on approximately 50,000 stocks and ETFs globally. Try any of our analysis, screener or portfolio premium services free for 7 days. To get a quick preview of our services, check out our free quick summary analysis of PDEX-US.

Last edited by starssavior; 04-06-2017 at 01:35 AM.
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:36 AM   #182
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I bought 2600 shares this week. \shrug
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:44 AM   #183
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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I bought 2600 shares this week. \shrug
My guess is that this company produces nothing and that the numbers are fake.
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Old 04-06-2017, 06:08 AM   #184
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Ok here is one pro-dex on the nasdaq. https://www.google.com/search?q=PDEX...q=PDEX+stock&*

Here is another on on the Phildelphia stock exchange: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...symbol=PDEX.PH
lol

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... from capital cube:
more lol
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Old 04-06-2017, 07:53 AM   #185
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

The Gilead thread was a better troll job than this one. You are losing your touch.
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Old 04-10-2017, 06:16 PM   #186
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Why is the bid/ask spread 50 cents? Is this just on td or am I missing something
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Old 04-10-2017, 09:52 PM   #187
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Only put in limit orders for stocks with this kind of low volume. When I put my order they didn't have any in inventory obviously, but gave me my price (TD) anyway.
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Old 04-14-2017, 12:17 AM   #188
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Interesting rebuttal I found to a takeover attempt from Swenson on Biglari in 2015 for seats on the board at SNS (Unsuccessful). References Swenson's ability to manage AIRT and PDEX numerous times.

As far as I know I can't see the actual presentation, i'd love to see the arguments made by both.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d.../filename1.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...0250/cg556.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...6_03162015.pdf

Last edited by Smokey_The_Bear; 04-14-2017 at 12:30 AM. Reason: Found the presentation
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Old 04-14-2017, 09:55 AM   #189
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Read up on Biglari and form your own opinion, but I have nothing positive to say about him. I'd never invest in a company that he runs and I take most of his claims with a grain of salt. Him and Swenson have had a feud for years.
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Old 04-26-2017, 01:32 PM   #190
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

BC: Thoughts on this?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...37/pdex_8k.htm
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Old 04-26-2017, 10:42 PM   #191
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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I've been pondering this over the past 24 hours as well... I think it's a net positive if they have the cash on hand without other opportunities, but obviously 4% interest on 800k isn't going to translate into anything substantial, and I don't know what the risk of default is. Obviously they're betting on monogram being a success and converting the promissory note into shares at a significant discount. Still, this seems to stray away from their "focus on the core medical device business" per the annual shareholder meeting, unless i'm totally misinterpreting what's going on.

It is an interesting way to utilize free cash and not the direction I would've thought they would take here. I'm interested in what you think as well BCI.
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Old 04-27-2017, 01:23 PM   #192
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

They have rights to manufacture their medical products as part of the advance. I don't think it's straying too far from their core focus. Not a fan of 4% though
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Old 04-28-2017, 12:02 AM   #193
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I've only read the filing and probably won't talk to mgmt until after May earnings but it looks like its right within their core focus of medical devices combined with the financial flexibility they now have with excess cash and the creative capital allocation skills brought to the table by the two board members. It appears they structured it as a loan to protect the downside in case things don't pan out, the 4% interest is meaningless, the upside comes from successful future financing rounds and product launch success where Pro Dex has the manufacturing agreement. Similar to the Riverside deal they appear to have protected their downside in the plan B scenario while maintaining uncapped upside in the plan A. Who knows if it will work but it's a neat little deal that 99.9% of microcap companies would never pull off. PDEX is not run in a conventional way and you just need to accept that, I'm a fan of creative thinking such as this.
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Old 04-28-2017, 01:18 AM   #194
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I'd have to agree that this deal seems very well structured as far as limited downside, assuming the borrower's ability to maintain solvency. I have no experience in determining that risk, but I assume the default risk is very low due to nick/ray having done the DD.

The deal certainly seems like a net positive, but I am missing the part where Pro Dex is granted the manufacturing agreement. Is that covered in 9 (a) of the promissory note, or are we just assuming it's a "good faith" promise of manufacture?

Assuming the note is converted into shares, does PDEX hold them as shareholder equity, or do we assume they're liquidated at some point?

As a side note, I would think this deal would decrease the likelihood of PDEX shareholder dilution by way of raising capital through an offering of shares, at least in the short term. Just my 2c.
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Old 05-02-2017, 12:21 AM   #195
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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I have no experience in determining that risk, but I assume the default risk is very low due to nick/ray having done the DD.

The deal certainly seems like a net positive, but I am missing the part where Pro Dex is granted the manufacturing agreement. Is that covered in 9 (a) of the promissory note, or are we just assuming it's a "good faith" promise of manufacture?

Assuming the note is converted into shares, does PDEX hold them as shareholder equity, or do we assume they're liquidated at some point?

As a side note, I would think this deal would decrease the likelihood of PDEX shareholder dilution by way of raising capital through an offering of shares, at least in the short term. Just my 2c.
I don't think the risk of default is necessarily low but i think the risk of loss on the investment is probably low/limited due to how they structured the deal. Similar to the Riverside deal, the risk of default was high, the risk of loss was low.

The rights to manufacture were right in the filing:
"In connection with the Promissory Note, the Company was granted the exclusive right to develop, engineer, manufacture and supply certain products on behalf of Monogram"

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...37/pdex_8k.htm

I don't think this deal has any bearing on whether they will raise capital via issuing shares. The capital raise filing I find pretty interesting, ask yourself this question: "Why would a sophisticated capital allocator who owns 40% of a company file to raise capital via diluting their ownership in the open market when the company is profitable, debt free and has $2m+ cash on the balance sheet AND we are expecting earnings to accelerate throughout 2017 beginning with their May earnings release"?
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Old 05-04-2017, 02:36 PM   #196
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Company should report Q3 next week, probably Thursday. I'm expecting revenue of $5-$5.7m with my best guess being $5.25m. I'm expecting to see Gross Profit % improve to 32% from 28.5% last quarter because they will be getting a higher ASP on their largest product but I could be misjudging that. I'm not sure how much of the new product that launched this quarter will be recognized here, my range is $0-$500k. I'm expecting Operating Income between $400k-$750k, EBITDA of $540k-$880k, GAAP EPS will be artificially high by $300k ($.075/share) because of one time gain from selling the OMS Division. GAAP EPS expecting $.17-$.26. I still think the odds of the stock being $8+ coming out of November earnings are very high. I realize that sounds insane saying the stock should be 66% higher in 7 months but based on what i'm seeing thats what I think but I guess we'll see. The May/Sept/Nov earnings are the catalysts to make that happen. As always, I could be very wrong.
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:18 PM   #197
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Results are out, I forgot about the $750k one time engineering revenue so adjusted company did $5.87m revenue on my estimate of $5-$5.7m and $600k of the new product shipped i had estimated $0-$500k.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...dex_ex99z1.htm
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:19 PM   #198
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Company should report Q3 next week, probably Thursday. I'm expecting revenue of $5-$5.7m with my best guess being $5.25m. I'm expecting to see Gross Profit % improve to 32% from 28.5% last quarter because they will be getting a higher ASP on their largest product but I could be misjudging that. I'm not sure how much of the new product that launched this quarter will be recognized here, my range is $0-$500k. I'm expecting Operating Income between $400k-$750k, EBITDA of $540k-$880k, GAAP EPS will be artificially high by $300k ($.075/share) because of one time gain from selling the OMS Division. GAAP EPS expecting $.17-$.26. I still think the odds of the stock being $8+ coming out of November earnings are very high. I realize that sounds insane saying the stock should be 66% higher in 7 months but based on what i'm seeing thats what I think but I guess we'll see. The May/Sept/Nov earnings are the catalysts to make that happen. As always, I could be very wrong.
Solid predictions. Been a fun couple of days.
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:31 PM   #199
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

So ignoring the 750k the company did an additional 100k of new product, but still came in at the bottom of your estimated range at $5.12m? Or did you already adjust it down to 5.87?
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:37 PM   #200
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Seems like they bought back 312k of stock in the last 9 months
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