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Old 09-19-2016, 02:29 PM   #101
Malachii
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Not really, I don't think. It's kind of thinly traded, so if there were some day traders that were positioning for a big post-earnings move and are trying to unwind their positions, that could drive the price down in the short term. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

As for the quarter itself, it sounds like there's a bit of a disparity between how much the underlying economics of the business improved and how much the immediate accounting results improved. I think what BC is looking at is the backlog, which if I understand it correctly are future customer commitments where the revenue can't be recognized because the customer commitments haven't been earned yet. So if the backlog is building, that's bullish long term, but the revenue itself in the quarter was more or less in line with previous quarters, then I wouldn't anticipate a big post earnings move.
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Old 09-20-2016, 01:41 PM   #102
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/inde...16/?yptr=yahoo
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Old 09-20-2016, 02:21 PM   #103
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

nice, i love me some generic click-bait 'analysis' in the afternoon...
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Old 09-20-2016, 06:49 PM   #104
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I'm genuinely curious what % of people think that "articles" like that, or on Zacks etc. are actually written by a human. I know multiple people that think there's somebody out there writing these things up.

It seems pretty clear that it's a pre-filled template with standard language that they just load statistics into and it spits out a "report", but hey maybe i'm crazy.
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Old 09-21-2016, 04:18 PM   #105
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
I'm genuinely curious what % of people think that "articles" like that, or on Zacks etc. are actually written by a human. I know multiple people that think there's somebody out there writing these things up.

It seems pretty clear that it's a pre-filled template with standard language that they just load statistics into and it spits out a "report", but hey maybe i'm crazy.
I used to analyze bot written quarterly reports on murk to try and make them better so you are pretty spot on
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Old 10-13-2016, 04:55 PM   #106
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Spent some time talking to management recently. Nothing huge to report on, we covered lots of topics. New product launch still slated for Jan 2017 as called out in the Q3 press release. They signed a new development contract for another product and are still working to secure an exclusive supply agreement so that would probably be a fiscal 2018 launch if successful. Sounds like results in the OMS, Fineline, and ESD segments should all continue to improve going forward. This had been a drag on results in the last 12 months covering up strong performance in the core biz. Mgmt still feels very good about prospects for growth in the core medical device biz. The lawsuit mentioned in the 10-K sounds trivial, the counter party seems shady/desperate in my opinion. I'm thinking around 5.1m rev for Q1 and Q2 here in February. Might be 4.8m-ish in Q1 and 5.4m-ish Q2 or 5.4m in Q1 and 4.8m in Q2 split for the quarters but somewhere around there. The big jump will be the quarter they report in May when the largest customer doubles orders to $3m/quarter starting Jan 2017 and them also launching a new product in January as well.

I'm expecting somewhere around 5.1m rev and $150-300k ebitda each quarter for November and February releases here and then around $7m rev and 800k-1m ebitda/quarter starting with the May release. Stock should really fly then.

At the current price of $4.65 you are paying an enterprise value of 16.5m for a company that will probably do $28-30m revenue in calendar 2017 and $3.5-4m of ebitda so you are paying .6x revenue and 4.25x ebitda, those kind of multiples are usually left for low margin and/or dying companies with bad governance, management, and capital allocation. PDEX is a growing company with above average business economics and strong management, governance, and capital allocation abilities.

Here is one of the products they launched late last year: https://www.depuysynthes.com/hcp/cmf...RIX_PRO_Driver
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Old 10-13-2016, 07:05 PM   #107
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Nice, thanks for the update. Seems like after the may release this will increase like 50%+.

Do you have the segment numbers for q4? I think I only saw the numbers for the whole year in the report

Do you know how much they have authorized for the share repurchase program?
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Old 10-13-2016, 07:30 PM   #108
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

The buyback authorization still has somewhere around 575k shares left on it I believe, it will be interesting to see how much they bought back during the quarter, been lots of volume and the stock price has been weak so it could be significant.

I have the Q4 segment numbers but not on me I can post them tomorrow or you can take the full year numbers from 10-K and back out the Q3 YTD numbers from the May 10-Q
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Old 10-13-2016, 08:51 PM   #109
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Interesting, so they a lot more buying power than I thought. I'm curious as well

Thanks, ok I got a rough idea now of the numbers
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Old 10-14-2016, 11:06 AM   #110
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Here is what i had for Q4 by segment (formatting is crappy i know):

Q4______Pro-Dex___OMS_Fineline_ESD__Corp__Total
Revenue___4,312____296____371__306___-___5,285

Gross Profit__1,163___193___11___79____ -___1,446

SG&A_______797_____181___64___72___133____1,247

OI_________366______12___(53)__7___(133)___199

D&A________117_______2____15__ -____ - ____134

EBITDA_____483______14____-38__7___-133___333
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Old 10-14-2016, 12:42 PM   #111
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Old 10-14-2016, 09:16 PM   #112
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Thanks, teach me^
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Old 10-17-2016, 11:34 AM   #113
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

shareholder letter and proxy out, the backlog at $18m is almost certainly the highest in company history. Looks like no shares have been repurchased since quarter end as of Oct 3rd.: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...7/f16-0867.htm
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Old 10-17-2016, 03:59 PM   #114
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

What do you make of them not buying back any shares. Seems a bit off, no?
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Old 10-17-2016, 04:01 PM   #115
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23 View Post
shareholder letter and proxy out, the backlog at $18m is almost certainly the highest in company history. Looks like no shares have been repurchased since quarter end as of Oct 3rd.: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...7/f16-0867.htm
Do you plan on attending the annual meeting this year?
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Old 10-17-2016, 04:14 PM   #116
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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What do you make of them not buying back any shares. Seems a bit off, no?
Somewhat surprised but we also don't know the terms of the buyback program. The plan is being executed by a 3rd party so the terms of the plan might say they cannot start buying until 30 days after the submission date or until after the quarter ended September 30th results have been released (November results). We just don't know. If they don't buyback lots of shares before that May release I will be shocked (assuming the stock price stays under $5 or so).

Last edited by BCI23; 10-17-2016 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 10-17-2016, 04:15 PM   #117
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23 View Post
Somewhat surprised but we also don't know the terms of the buyback program. The plan is being executed by a 3rd party so the terms of the plan might say they cannot start buying until 30 days after the submission date or until after the quarter ended September 30th results have been released (November results). We just don't know. If they don't buyback lots of shares before that May release I will be shocked.
Thanks for the response.
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Old 10-17-2016, 04:19 PM   #118
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Do you plan on attending the annual meeting this year?
I haven't decided yet. Last year I was going to be in LA for an investor conference anyway so it was easy to shoot down to Irvine but this year that conference is the next week so this would be a dedicated trip. TBD.
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Old 10-22-2016, 04:07 PM   #119
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I think we should be able to back into the Q1 revenue number they will report in November based on info we know. On June 30 2016 backlog was $11.3m. In the shareholder letter it says backlog is $18m on Oct 3rd and we know $12m of that $18m is orders placed by the largest customer for 2017. So if the only booked sales from June 30 - Oct 3rd were the 12m to the largest customer that would say backlog declined from 11.3m to 6m during Q1 aka sales in Q1 (July 1 - Sept 30)*were $11.3m - 6m = $5.3m.*
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Old 11-02-2016, 10:23 AM   #120
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

down quite a bit the last few days. cant find any news. whats going on?
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:12 AM   #121
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

If you can't find any news what makes you think anything is "going on". This is a microcap stock and volatility is very common we don't need a what's going on post after every single move.
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:38 AM   #122
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

What's going on is you have a nice opportunity to increase your position. Or don't. Whatever you wanna do.
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Old 11-02-2016, 12:41 PM   #123
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Originally Posted by numbeo View Post
down quite a bit the last few days. cant find any news. whats going on?
Post 79 from this thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23 View Post
Hard to know for sure but likely just variance. The large increase in trading volume is likely to bring increased volatility (up & down) in the stock price going forward here.
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Old 11-02-2016, 12:51 PM   #124
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

increased my position 50% this morning.
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Old 11-02-2016, 01:04 PM   #125
BCI23
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

When I first wrote up PDEX the stock was trading at .43x my estimate of next 12 months revenue, although the stock is 100% higher today it is now trading at .5x my estimate of next 12 months revenue. We are at the same relative valuation as when i wrote this company up originally. I slammed every last dollar I was comfortable putting into the company before their February earnings last year otherwise I would be backing up the truck here right now as well. That said, I think there will probably be opportunities to buy the stock under $5 here up until the May earnings release.
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