It's to honour the vast intellect of Deuces.

Ughhhhh. Bad day for me. I thought I got a deal. Filled up for like $17. Then my car broke down. Turns out I got #notrealgas.

((

No, he's been calling the peak of global production for 2015 all along. Just like the Pentagon did in 2008. Haven't wavered from that. And considering U.S. production is dropping since last May, and U.S. production is all that kept global production growth going, I remain confident that we are at peak.

We've been over this a half dozen times now, ... it's just that you're too arrogant to absorb it.

And it is.

Well, embarrassment and spite is a powerful emotion that you draw heavily from. I have no doubt you'll maintain the canard even when production decline and/or global depression becomes impossible to deny. At this point, you kinda have to hold on to your "no problem" narrative.

Actually, troll, you bumped it by calling my attention to the thread all over again. Shall we review?

You continue to confuse abundant credit for abundant economical oil production. It's a failure that afflicts the majority of you free marketeers.

The industry can borrow their way out of trouble for a few years and continue pumping crap that fewer and fewer refineries wanna buy... At least until the gravy train (investment) finally ends, which is beginning to happen now.

Well, for those of you who (conveniently) insist all barrels of oil are the same, sure, there's plenty of crap left. Unfortunately, for the rest of us here in reality, the shale oil and gas industry is unsustainable, and dying rapidly. The vast majority of the resources your heroes claim as assets will stay in the ground forever. Awwww, sorry.

How's Brazil faring these days? They had that enormous oil/gas find off their coast a decade ago. ... Now they're careening towards recession. How can that be? I'm sure it must be their extravagant "liberal spending" and "laziness," just like the Greeks. Please share more of your racist assessment of the failures of darker skinned people who don't have the homogeneous virtues of their northern European betters, like you did in the Greece thread.

And as I've said to you every time you've attempted this, 15 years ago the EIA predicted we'd need to be at 105M barrels per day by now. With growth about 60% of what it was back then, how can you suggest we're NOT consuming way less than what was envisioned as optimal?

You don't seem to understand what was being claimed. It's the shortfall in predicted (needed) consumption volume that has hammered global growth rates. So, yes, I'd say there IS a shortfall close to 10M bpd today compared to what we'd be at with 3% growth by now.

And before you say "efficiency improvements" over and over again, why are so many major industrial nations teetering on the edge of recession?

this seems like one of the worst points in history to claim that peak oil exists

Didn't read the posts above, huh? Not surprising.

It always biggest at the peak of the curve. That's what makes it the peak.

In any event, it's easy for some to make the claim above when they remain unclear (or willfully obtuse) about what peak oil actually refers to... We are right on track, and world governments have no idea what to do about it. ... You know, besides wider war.

Jiggs point is something like oil prices below $100*/barrel are too cheap to make it worth producing. And oil above $80*/barrel are too expensive for consumers.

So no matter what price we're at WE ARE ALL ****ED. Either we won't have enough oil, or we won't have all of the oil we need to fuel global growth.

It sounds kind of reasonable if you don't think about it at all.



* I might have exact numbers wrong.

Oh dear, we are all doomed.

March 2014:
3.25 years later, about $45. I think this post was peak peak oil.

Such a ruthless bump

I'm legit amazed it took so long to bump. Hope Jiggs is still around to reply.

I just bumped because I think it's a fun read for new people. Read the title, read the thread..go WTF...then read the date, and have a good laugh.

A learning experience.

A cautionary tale about the dangers of being not uncertain if nothing else.

not really, he's just gonna come back and keep touting it

you can be wrong for 30 years and if it eventually happens, you can proclaim your genius. never mind all the people you'd have sent broke in the meantime who followed your advice.

Exactly. He's a fanatic. Fanaticism is a type of insanity characterized by an completely unjustified level of certainty in an idea imo. How bad it is just depends on the idea.

Peak oil, as Jiggs describes it, will never happen.

Yeah. In 20 years oil is more likely to be $20 a barrel than $120 a barrel (ignoring inflation)

Sorry I missed your "sick bump." I don't really visit much any more, as it's become such a cesspool.

It's funny though that I still rent space in your head. Must be because I pants'd you back in the day, calling you out for your racism in that thread re: what ails floundering Europe.

Your metamorphosis into borderline white supremacist on this site really blossomed from there.

But you tend to do this every once in a while, where you need to gloat.

What you do is point to oil price, and ignore that I've mentioned both far too high and far too low price scenarios ... You're well aware I've said that what matters is ONLY the imbalance between the global price buyers can afford, and what price the industry actually needs to make a buck. The passage you're quoting of mine wasn't predicting price; it was asking a hypothetical of where oil price would be today in a truly free market. Dumb as you are, I'm confident you knew my meaning there. It's just that you're so dishonest, you had to omit all context. It's what you do.

Cornucopia clowns award themselves a trophy because they're finally paying $2 for gas again, ... yet meanwhile as I've shown many times over, tight oil producers (esp. frackers) are taking an absolute beating right now.

Great ... the price of oil ballooned for 12 years, allowing new (old, really), disgusting technology to make fracking suddenly "viable." Capitalists being what they are, they overproduced for a short while, and soon ran out of storage. Futures price dropped hard. As a result, the industry has had to become lean to the point of being malnourished, and production totals started to reverse all over again.

Fracking has hit its ceiling. It's been the only thing maintaining needed overall production "growth" ever since conventional production reached it's plateau a decade ago. Conventional oil is what the petrodollar is based on, and conventional oil production is flat. ... In the background, though, demand is relentless. Maybe not in the US, where demand is flat, but the developing world continues wanting more oil each passing year. If you think "fracking" will continue to expand to keep pace, you're a fool.

This is it. It's all we know how to do. The new (old) frontier. Tight oil production. From massive formations experts knew about 80 years ago, and laughed at the idea conditions would ever get bad enough to need them.

Well, we "need" now.

This is the opening stages of an oil war. And it's entirely due to peak oil/oil depletion/net energy decline, whatever you prefer to call it.

If you want to pretend you "won" because global oil price is depressed, that's fine. But the reality is that the industry is at it's breaking point.

Top 10 Bankruptcies in 2016 feature 9 energy firms

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...rgy-Firms.html

Yes, saying that Greek economic troubles (who are "white", by the way) ultimately trace their origin to a culture that is socialist, broken and corrupt and hence economically inferior to Northern European cultures, is racism. Are you high or something? WTF is wrong with you? Cultures define nations and economies and have nothing to do with race.

Nice red herring though. You must be feeling the shame of your OP in your bones.

Reading between the lines, I think you realize how wrong you were. Good to know. There's no shame in being wrong. It's a learning opportunity.

Yes. Oil gets oversupplied (i.e. the very opposite of "peak oil"), the prices crashes on this oversupply and stays low for years, and the hgihest cost producers go bankrupt. Welcome to every market in the history of the world.

What exactly does your post have to do with anything besides proving that you were wrong about peak oil?

Jiggs, how did it happen that someone who understands so little about oil markets has such strong opinions?

What's funny about this idiot holding the banner up for a theory that stopped being taken seriously roughly a decade ago (if it ever was) is that we're far likelier to have way too much cheap oil. Offshore oil - which we have an almost unlimited amount of - is largely being abandoned right now because of oversupply/price concerns. We literally have the EXACT opposite problem that Juggs predicted.

And further still, the macro problem that oil companies have to contend with is there may only be another 10-15 year runway here for oil as the primary world transportation fuel. Because electric is coming very, very quickly. It's not cost competitive yet, but that story will change not too long from now.

Peak oil usage will probably be hit not too long from now, but not because of anything that Juggs is ranting about.

Oh man Jiggs couldn't even come in here and just own it? Damn.

Yeah, electricity isn't an energy source, genius. And renewables don't provide the energy density needed to maintain a fleet of 800 million vehicles. Sorry. EVs are still powered by fossil fuels, largely.

Also, "offshore oil" isn't cheap, nor is it "unlimited" in any economical sense.

If your post were accurate and we were successfully phasing it out, global oil consumption wouldn't still be going up with each passing year.

It's funny that you mention anyone else somehow "not understanding" oil markets.