AGNC down another almost 2% today. I need some of that pink stuff to drink.

Anyone own any of these? Curious what people may think is worth owning in this market:

http://etfdb.com/breaking-down-the-m...lar-bond-etfs/

Yeah I own some bond etfs. Bonds don't get any love in this forum which is a big leak imo. The yields aren't correct on that page

What you currently carrying?

Currently some TLT which I've build over the past few weeks. I would hold some JNK or HYG, but the market is so high right now it's good to have TLT since it's generally inversely correlated to the market. Plus with rising yields it's much more attractive. Look at the performance of the treasuries since 2007. 30 year was up huge in 2008, and gave a little back in 2009

You want to own TLT after rates rise, not while they are rising. I actually think you are fine in them right now. I expect yields to go sideways (probably down from here) for the foreseeable future*, but don't like the risk/reward.

Also, be careful since your comment on "generally" is very true. I'd not be holding them as a hedge against stocks right now.

Also, look at muni CEFs if you are in the USA. Different set of risks though.

*at least the next couple of days. I broke my crystal ball.

So, the three things I'm keeping an eye on are:

European growth and recovery:

There is going to be an entry point at some point. Seems really cheap right now. Not sure how to go about finding an entry point.

Fixed Income:

Seems like TLT is close to being a decent buy? Also wondering about Municipals....I didn't think about touching them in January, but now? I'm down almost 7% in TIPS since January....time to add more and rebalance, or wait until the end of the year?

Gold:

Ideally I'd like to move out of GLTR and plan on selling in December to take the tax loss. But, it might be nice to move some of that money into GLD now?

I also plan on moving a good chunk of my IRA (which is 1/3 of my nut, into some MLP's)

Bump.

Is selling puts to acquire a underlying ETF a good idea? Looking to fund my ROTH with some Vanguard (VT/VBR/BND)....

Wanted to bump this thread and update. I did eventually enter a bigger position in Europe and all world exUS. This was done in the fall and winter of this past year. So, two years later and I'm in. Brexit was a bit of a beat, but still feeling ok about it.

I got out of commodities all together back in 2013. I'm officially anti gold and most all commodities. I don't believe they are investments, and not even good for what most people own them for (inverse to stocks/hedging)

Luckily I never bought any MLPs except for KMI, which I moved out of, basically because I didn't feel well versed enough to be in that sector anymore.

I did buy TLT in 2013 as well as California Municipal bonds, maybe a year later. Currently, the CA bonds are doing very well. Up 9%, and I keep them in my non SEP_IRA account, due to the fact that they are already tax free if you live in California.

*So, there are, and have been places to invest in fixed income in this current environment. Not sure how risky these are going forward though.

Overall, considering I manage a large chunk of money, and have taught myself, so I can manage my own money, I feel fairly good about my results so far.

Currently, after today I'm +11.38% In my investment account, and +15.44% in my SEP IRA.

Feel ok about results, considering this is and has been a strange environment to have as an entry point. Also, I've been learning on the clock. I've definitely made some blunders, but I think I was quick to adjust. Feeling strong about my mental game too. I panicked a bit early, and rightly so, but since then, I've been steady buy and hold. I'm only rebalancing, and tax loss harvesting at this point. If we crash, I'm holding.

I'm about 85% equity 10% fixed, and 5% cash at this point, but should have more money to invest in the fall.

My main bets on Health care and Amazon, from a couple years ago, have been strong. This year, I added mostly BRK-B, and a little Europe, Europe small cap, Ex-US bonds.

Starting to think about increasing my exposure to VWO.

I would try to find an etf where.

1. The top 10 holding are less than 10% of the fund otherwise just buy the stocks.
2. There is a pretty good dividend yield
3. The price to sales ratio is less than 2 preferably less than 1.
4. The expense ratio is less than 0.5% preferably less than .25%



You can find info easily under yahoo finance, under holdings for example.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=VBR+Holdings

MLPs are kind-of a nice retirement vehicle to be held outside IRAs for retirement. Something you never sell. I don't fully understand them but they give a dividend but it is not a real dividend. The partnership gives units. But the good thing they are mostly treated as return to capital so you pay little tax on them, however your cost basis drops. In a etf or CEF, yields can be north of 10% and they own pipelines, graveyards, theme parks and the likes. They probably been beaten down pretty good, but you might want to wait til end of year to clear out all the remaining dividend cuts and debt bankruptcies (assuming oil prices don't drop again).

Outside of my 401k I only buy ETFs through Vanguard in a Roth and taxable account.

My Roth has VNQ(REIT) and VYM(high dividend yield) and my taxable is 70% VTI(total stock market) and 30% VBR(small cap value)

Makes sense. No fixed income? Are you substituting VYM for that?

VNQ has been a nice surprise as of late.

100% equities but me and my wife both will have pensions

Vym would be a bad substitute for fixed income.

If you listen to Bill Gross the king of bonds, he is scared about the current bond market. He even thinks shorting high yield might be good. He states we have never been in this scenario before. He did mention he liked leveraged muni bonds, for 5% yield. There is a lot of forced selling (the fed) and forced buying (banks, insurance companies, retirement funds) to create a wild situation which will probably be blamed on the next president.

Do you have a link to where he said this?

Seems like hes had a bit of fall from grace the last few years? His PIMCO fund underperformed for years up until he left. How has he performed since he left?

As a side note, I've heard multiple people say that long term treasuries are a risky hold at this point. People are recommending short and medium term instead. Not sure what to make of it all myself.


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We are both geniuses. Me a little bit more than you.

Pretty impressive.

Brian do agree that moving out of long term and into short and medium term fixed is the play currently?


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You ride the horse until it dies. You won't be able to say you sold at the top, but that doesn't pay the bills.

Honestly, this is probably the best, most solid portfolio I've seen in any of these forums.

I just posted to the thread "Stocks Ahnuld Likes" about how 4 of his 5 picks are down in 2016! He is supposed to be some stock picking Guru with a bunch of fanboys.

In reality, for 99% of investors, VTI is their single best bet, combined with VBR, and VYM & VNQ in tax protected retirement account, you are crushing it!

You my friend have put together the blue print for "getting rich slowly"!

Ahnuld is a value investor (and a pro at that). The time frame for an investment, but particularly one on the value side, is a bit more than 8 months...Particularly since he specializes in a lot of distressed at slumping assets (where he might find value in restructuring etc...).

Hey Rafiki, stop drinking the Kool Aid. I'd bet everything I have that investing in low cost index funds for past 10 years, or 20 years have crushed Ahnulds returns!

In fact, I'll bet you any amount that a portfolio of VTI, VNQ, VYM, & VBK overweighted to VTI will crush any portfolio/trades Ahnuld recommends over the next 5 years or 10 years! Put your money where your mouth is amigo!

Value ETF's rock and stock pickers/day traders suck hickory dickery dock!

I think you should be proposing the bet to Ahnuld? He's the only one who can validate it.

Note that I didn't come in here and tell people not to invest in ETFs. I came to tell you that when Ahnuld is looking at a distressed assets play, he's probably not going to be proven right or wrong in 8 months.

Looking for some opinions on a high equity ETF portfolio. Thinking about some SPY, VTI, VWO, VNQ, maybe some IJR/IJH? Lacking any exposure that is needed iyo?

Any advice, criticism, flaming is much appreciated.