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Old 07-08-2017, 01:05 AM   #51
Abbaddabba
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

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Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot View Post
Why is he building the biggest battery factory in the world then? Elon Musk himself has said it's because there isn't a big enough supply of batteries.
What was the quote?

Quote:
Tesla = the only one willing to lose billions of dollars putting not-ready batteries in sports car. Other car makers will enter rapidly and at scale soon as batteries become viable for mass market consumption.
But how long does it take for them to get there? There aren't many players in the game to begin with.
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Old 07-08-2017, 05:31 AM   #52
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

Not long at all. Most car makers already make EVs (about a million are sold per year worldwide), and have been doing so for years. Most car makers also have high performance electric race cars, which they've also been doing for years.

Even university students can build electric race cars from scratch: Student-built electric race car goes from 0-62 mph in 1.513 seconds

The technology is a cinch, the battery factories are a cinch, there's nothing at all difficult. Putting batteries in a car is 1-2 orders of magnitude less complex than profitably building 20 models of car across a global manufacturing and supply chain, involving thousands of parts JITed. Or even engineering extra performance out of an ICE engine.

Musk has made fools and casual observers think he has some lead, but he's really got nothing, and has done nothing, except be prepared to lose many billions making electric sports cars for a subsidized niche market where no one else wanted to flush billions down the toilet for no reason.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 07-08-2017 at 05:46 AM.
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Old 07-08-2017, 05:45 AM   #53
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

And as cost parity approaches and is reached, electric cars will explode; a few years after cost parity is reached, most new cars, in the first world and China at least, will be electric. Around that point (2022 parity), oil will start feeling the effects of demand falling.

Cars are 66% of oil transportation demand as near as I can estimate, which itself is 63% of total demand. So 40% of global oil (possibly 50%; 50% of oil becomes gasoline, nearly all of which is cars, and many cars use diesel in Europe) goes to cars.

The turnover rate for cars is about 7% a year (70 million are produced; there are a billion; car lifespan all considered is about 10 years on average). So around 2022 oil demand will start dropping around 1%/year, going up to 3%/year in a few years. That adds up quickly, very quickly, in a commodity where a few percent difference between supply and demand changes the price 50 to 100%.

The only wildcard is the economic growth of the second and third world. Will ICE grow enough in those countries to offset the rapid decline in the west? I don't believe it will. China has excess power, already built (reliable coal-fired), and can build infrastructure rapidly. I believe they will quickly be mostly electric. I also believe the third world will be offset by trucks becoming electric quite rapidly after 2025 or so.

All of it together is a nightmare for oil demand. Add in technological improvements in oil recovery (fracking has cut costs 50+% in a matter of years and is still falling, similarly with oil sands, of which there are vast supplies), and oil looks done for as a commodity. If there's a recession between now and electric parity, we'll never see $100 again.
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Old 07-08-2017, 04:15 PM   #54
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

whatever you do, don't believe a thing this guy ^ says re: energy. He literally admitted he's "no expert" on page 1. That should tip you off.

You'll notice his word-salad posts are inundated with "I believe", "could hold up to" and "near as I can estimate," along with exactly zero links supporting his cornucopian speculation. It's the same every time.

Toothless is a technology cultist, who rests assured the master races will solve all of the world's energy problems, provided enough capital is made available for them to "study" it. As always, he's yet another "econ 101 bro" who gets it backwards. Ultimately, it's surplus energy that creates capital, not the other way around.

He has very little understanding re: the logistics of battery creation, where the power actually comes from, the true costs associated with infrastructure expansion, the logistics of scale, the limitations of range, and a dozen other obvious roadblocks the EV industry has no convincing answers for.

Meanwhile, we are only "oversupplied" due to sudden investment capital being funneled from Wall St. to wildcatters that can never actually be paid back. Yawn. That credit line appears to be over... And the "glut" won't last. Meanwhile, demand for oil is still relentless.

Anyone claiming a "break even" oil price of $50 for fracking as a whole absolutely has no idea what he is talking about. Sure, some fields on the margin can maintain stasis at $40-60 at the well head (now that their parent company has shed CAPEX and purged staff), but the average producer, mired in debt, needs global oil price much higher than that. Further, who gets in the game to just "break even?" ... They have dividend payments, loan payments, etc. etc., plus they're ultimately trying to make money ... and failing.

Of course, it's entirely possible that Wall St. bails the frackers out all over again. This form of Keynesian monetary policy is all modern capitalist man knows how to do any more.

None of the industry's tricks counters the reality: Depletion is real. Pumping faster at a loss now doesn't magically create more affordable energy later.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-08-2017 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 07-08-2017, 04:36 PM   #55
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

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Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
whatever you do, don't believe a thing this guy ^ says re: energy. He literally admitted he's "no expert" on page 1. That should tip you off.
It tips you off that I'm sane and honest. On the other hand, you've been predicting the coming peak along with the collapse of civilization for almost a decade, and been clownishly, comically wrong. When confronted with facts (supply increased far beyond what you imagined it could from say your posts in 2010), you double down and go into other little wormholes of crazy ("the Wall Street bankers are propping it up").

I'll let the peanut gallery decide who to listen to. Be sure to the oil price when Jiggs made the OP vs the oil price now, though.
Quote:
You'll notice his word-salad posts are inundated with "I believe", "could hold up to" and "near as I can estimate," along with exactly zero links supporting his cornucopian speculation. It's the same every time.
I don't need links on the coming EV revolution. Few doubt it is inevitable and not far off. You are incredibly ignorant; I assure you this entire forum is laughing at you.

Quote:
Toothless is a technology cultist, who rests assured the master races will solve all of the world's energy problems, provided enough capital is made available for them to "study" it. As always, he's yet another "econ 101 bro" who gets it backwards. Ultimately, it's surplus energy that creates capital, not the other way around.

He has very little understanding re: the logistics of battery creation, where the power actually comes from, the true costs associated with infrastructure expansion, the logistics of scale, the limitations of range, and a dozen other obvious roadblocks the EV industry has no convincing answers for.


Quote:
None of the industry's tricks counters the reality: Depletion is real. Pumping faster at a loss now doesn't magically create more affordable energy later.
Looks real to me:

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Old 07-08-2017, 04:43 PM   #56
JiggsCasey
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

LOL!

that last chart doesn't actually say what you think. DUCY?

Also, standard that you don't actually understand what "depletion" refers to.
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Old 07-08-2017, 06:16 PM   #57
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

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Originally Posted by Abbaddabba View Post
What was the quote?



But how long does it take for them to get there? There aren't many players in the game to begin with.
It was in an interview I saw of him on youtube w/r gigafactory. I'll see if I can find it. The fact is, he himself said the reason Tesla can't mass produce Teslas and lower the cost of their cars is primarily because the batteries are too expensive/not available. He also said the gigafactory will produce as many batteries itself as are currently (at time of interview) produced in all the battery factories in the world combined. I don't really see how this could be spin. Why would you build a giant factory that makes batteries for Tesla cars if you could easily and cheaply acquire them from China etc.
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Old 07-08-2017, 06:37 PM   #58
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Re: Nows the time to buy oil?

because other companies like making money.
so they don't want to make their shareholders subsidize the batteries they build.
elon however...
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