Just how huge? How much money do you think is in this, in the best case, given that they have to partner? Why do multiple analyst firms with biotech/medical specialists not see any upside here, even on the assumption that there is full FDA approval and nothing goes wrong?

If there is so much potential and market, why have other companies dropped their versions?

Not exactly my work but I was so involved in the original analysis I’m confident the op wouldn’t mind me using it

I'm not going to get into specifics of valuation as I'm not going to pretend to have the expertise to do so in great detail. Not my field and I don't have a grasp of all the variables. I looked at this from the perspective of "this is potentially a great weapon in the treatment of diabetes, I think it has huge potential upside" and looking at results of the studies in great detail, not from a financial analyst perspective.

I think some analysts looked at exubra and immediately wrote off afrezza without really understanding that they are very different products and are being released during very different eras in diabetes management. My impression is that a lot of them are risk averse with biotechs because the hit rate is so low, it's easy to have written off MNKD from that perspective. I've read analyst reports over the years a friend of mine in the industry forwarded to me and I was never impressed by the level of analysis from a medical perspective. It all seemed like groupthink and the medical knowledge was sourced from wikipedia.

Could you link these analyses?

Afrezza is not just a different method of delivering insulin- it is a new type of insulin. Ultra-rapid acting which mimics uptake of natural insulin in non-diabetes persons and theoretically decreases hypoglycemic events and makes planning and management of dosing more easier.

Exubera had a lot of issues- cost, inconvenience, Pfizer's inexperience in diabetes market.

I don't want to get too involved in this thread - I'm not a finance guy - I posted as a one-off just because I had such longstanding interest in the topic.
That said, when asked what the potential best case scenario is, here is my opinion:

IF:
1) it passes FDA
2) no black box type stuff or spirometry required
3) its marketed by either MNKD or a partner is such a way that docs and patients find it safe and easy to dose without fear of hypos
4) doesn't cause more hypo events when the dose is scaled up
5) is able to achieve good glucose control with lantus qhs and afrezza at meals
6) price is kept reasonable to current therapy, enough so that insurance covers it
7) no increased lung cancer cases in post marketing surveillance studies
THEN: I think you have a potential to really transform diabetic treatment and improve health. Less importantly IMO, the drug and stock is a blockbuster.
All the assumptions in the analysis the poster quoted go out the window in this scenario, which is why I'm not delving into that.

It's a lot of "IFs" so that is why I say it's a gamble and risk is high.

Still only my second favorite post from him. My favorite was when he asked two years ago why I don't make it to the final table anymore at the WSOP and I proceeded to do just that in back to back tournaments right after he wrote it. I need him to come back here and say it again.

fwiw the pps analysis based on production capacity is contingent on all seven above criteria being true and is close to an absolute best case scenario

I'm invested in MNKD and I think this is a pretty fair assessment. I did a much simpler workup and came up with a 1 yr target of 12 -15 if FDA approval was granted for both T1DM and T2DM.

With that said a buyout could happen at north of $15 (Al Mann has a pretty solid history of selling his companies and patents). Secondly, there is also the technosphere technology licensing. The company is looking at delivering other drugs (such as pain meds) via their technoshpere and cricket device. If they are able to license or find a big pharma partner for this technology you are looking at another potentially lucrative revenue stream.

Did you or your associate assess the value of licensing or partnering this technology?

I don't really put much in the fact that Mann prefers to get 10x his investment or w/e the # is. He's in MNKD for $2B right? A big pharma isn't going to base a buyout price on a ROI for the original investor

MNKD has been extremely quiet on the technosphere licensing front. IIRC there are a few FDA studies you can lookup but the company has said basically nothing of substance during conference calls. Maybe this topic will be come up more once Afrezza gets established but until then, don't expect much. Any significant yield is at least 4 years away imo

Thanks for your input. If memory serves you are correct, Al Mann has put up between 2B and 2.5B of his own money and holds about 40% of the shares. So as of today his investment is worth a hair less than 1B. He would need about $20/sh for a profit of $1B. Is that enough for him, who knows?

Regarding technosphere, if there is no sale announced, I would expect that partnerships for P1 testing would be fairly aggressively pursued once FDA approval is confirmed on Afreeza. These would likely come with upfront cash and milestone payments or they could simply sell off the technology wholesale if the price was right. So basically I agree with your premise; there would likely not be any significant yield with technosphere anytime soon barring an outright sale, only small infusions tied to milestones.

Hadn't realised this was an old thread but so interesting and funny.

How any why DS gets castigated by some non-morons for starting such threads is mind-boggling. We should be building statues or at least buying his book if he will just get on and write the damn thing.

Agreed, except for on the statues bit unless we can take extreme artistic liberty.

His take on this was quite reasonable and he even asked reasonable questions hoping for reasonable answers.

Actually its just an example of a general syndrome that I bump into a lot. I speak of the fact that people who spend a lot of time familiarizing themselves with the details of a subject don't like it when someone far less knowledgeable about that subject comes up with a clever outside the box wrinkle.

Lol. You sound like some new kid scientist complaining about the old fart scientists.

You actually did sound pretty knowledgeable about the markets and made some pretty cautious statements. You made a determination that at first glance you had found something that looked like it had overreacted to news.

Seriously though. Why haven't you won a bracelet recently?

I am deadly serious on the statues thing. If you wanted statues, you would have put more money and time into working out, plastic surgery and Lasik. There is a reason why an autographed book by you goes for a decent sum and an autographed framed picture of you goes for slightly less than the price of the frame.

(I really hope you get that I am extending your joke about yowser or whatever the **** his unimportant and unaccomplished name was causing you to win a couple extra bracelets. I feel somewhat dirty that I feel the need to explain that.)

this is just another effective way to differentiate knowledgeable and intelligent vs. somewhat knowledgeable and egotistical. the intelligent people will always see the potential merit in a good idea, even if it's not presented in a way an expert in the field would. the sklansky hate on these forums is comical (and yes i realize i'll probably get flamed for being a nuthugger).

I've got your back. I mean, unless you aren't wearing pants and start backing up really fast.

DS is a special case. He comes up with ideas and is more than happy to throw them out there for feedback. That is a rare and good trait.

and unlike most people, he throws them out there for feedback 100% knowing he's going to get flamed. a lot. i don't know if i understand it, but i like it.

share price took a ~10% hit this morning because the FDA needs an additional 3 months to review ADCOM discussions. April, May, and June options got destroyed

Lots of stuff got crushed today. I would take the news as being favorable.

I realize it's lame to quote your own post but doing it for efficiency as I don't have a lot of time before getting to the hospital tonight - I'm happy with today's approval - I'm especially thrilled that the FDA nod of approval seems to be to using it for Type 2's instead of pills or as I stated above three times a day with meals and lantus at night - the extra studies they want are meaningless to me and expected - I expected lung cancer surveillance study and doesn't mean much in a financial sense as it will take at least 5 years for this to have an outcome that would affect sales.
I am moderately concerned about the asthma warning because it might spook docs from prescribing it - it's often said "don't be the first or last to prescribe a drug" and the more cautions there are, the more actual and subliminal resistance there is from docs. Requiring yearly spirometry would have been a DISASTER so I'm glad that isn't there on the warning.

I have no opinion on what the stock price will shake out at - I will let you experts debate that.

On a non-finance note, I'm thrilled that this medicine is finally available and there is a segment of the population that is poorly compliant with insulin and others that don't take pills because of hypo events that now have a weapon to treat their diabetes - it can be a terrible disease.

Picked up some shares AH. Pretty interesting finish for a friday considering the massive sell off with the approval news. (Someone screwed up?) Not sure exactly what happened but everything looks good.

Selling off after seemingly good news is a long-standing pattern for MNKD.

The stock just gets too hyped leading up to major events. And when the next potential catalyst is too far in the future many people riding the wave of optimism all sell off at the same time.

I agree with this hypothesis in the past events.
With Fridays drop, I think it was concern about the lung disease labeling. It wasn't anticipated and took some time for people to digest. I think the stock will go up to 11 or so Monday as people will have figured out it's not a deal breaker to have on the label.

Good call.

Wow, early morning rumor they are partnering with sanofi, maker of lantus.
I don't know the details, but if true this is my best case scenario if you read my posts in this thread. This is HUGE if true!
This could become the defacto regimen if marketed right - afrezza at meals, lantus at night
Should be a big jump today (although I don't know the specifics yet of the agreement)