May 2012 Trading Thread

[NajdorfDefense]

Not only that, I got scared off the the weak SSS in prior names and sold it off about a week ago. Better lucky than good!
No interest in getting back in, been looking at KSS for about a month.

[NajdorfDefense]

I think I sold all my LYB as well. Too much euro risk.

[savant111]

Originally Posted by tastychicken2

Naj are you holding off on JCP?

JCP will be cheaper than 25.94 at some point if you want to try and bottom fish it. I know you don't care for my opinion, but that you can bank.

[tastychicken2]

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

Not only that, I got scared off the the weak SSS in prior names and sold it off about a week ago. Better lucky than good!
No interest in getting back in, been looking at KSS for about a month.

Yeah I listened to some retail calls and analysts were commenting on seeing negative teens comps on JCP. The -19% was far worse than I expected. I don't remember seeing that kind of comp number before, but then again I wasn't looking at the market in 2008.

[tastychicken2]

Originally Posted by savant111

JCP will be cheaper than 25.94 at some point if you want to try and bottom fish it. I know you don't care for my opinion, but that you can bank.

I'm pretty certain I won't be able to time even 10% from the bottom. Not recommending this name to my firm for at least a quarter (or maybe year).... I couldn't believe that SSS number when I saw it.

Think it got downgraded to below investment grade too....

[CalledDownLight]

I'm in JPM about 20% below here, but plan to add through selling atm or slightly otm long dated puts if it moves down again tomorrow. If it breaks $32 I will be buying calls in all likelihood. I added to my MS and entered into CHK in the last 2 sessions also. None of these are meant to be short term trades. CHK could go to 0 if they **** up the asset sales, but I think they will sort it out and recover nicely.

[tastychicken2]

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

I'm in JPM about 20% below here, but plan to add through selling atm or slightly otm long dated puts if it moves down again tomorrow. If it breaks $32 I will be buying calls in all likelihood. I added to my MS and entered into CHK in the last 2 sessions also. None of these are meant to be short term trades. CHK could go to 0 if they **** up the asset sales, but I think they will sort it out and recover nicely.

What's the thesis behind MS? I haven't looked at that name except for their notional derivative exposure.

[cky23k]

Man I'm really tempted to bottom fish this market and play the dead cat bounce on LPR, MPAA and BTU and the like. I'm really trying to convince myself not to do this, lol.

I'll just sit back and watch these each jump 10% and then proceed to regret not pulling the trigger.

[highpsiguy]

Originally Posted by cky23k

Man I'm really tempted to bottom fish this market and play the dead cat bounce on LPR, MPAA and BTU and the like. I'm really trying to convince myself not to do this, lol.

I'll just sit back and watch these each jump 10% and then proceed to regret not pulling the trigger.

While many of these beaten down stocks (especially miners and other commodities) could easily have 10-20% short covering rallies, they are not to be bid into IMO.

We will see the bear market rally start in 3-6 months after things get so bad bubble ben is forced to print.

[savant111]

Just thinking about by options with AAPL. If things go bad w Aapl and market tomorrow I can hold it and avg down one time.

It is Aapl after all and I'm holding it about 17% off its highs. My questions are:

1) How low do you think it can drop before earnings at the end of July.

2) What price would you avg down if you only had one opportunity (I bought at 535), would prefer to sell before next earnings call, and would likly set a stop loss of 8% below your avg cost basis?

I've never avg down in a trade before and prob won't be doing it here unless it gets hit 3 or 4% tomorrow. I'm just curious what people would answer and what their rationale would be as I don't necessarily mind holding this for a few months.

[highpsiguy]

I believe one analyst has a $1000 price target so its a clear BUY BUY BUY here...

Seriously though AAPL trades down to 200dma in the next couple of months

[savant111]

Psi guy what about the Znga bet Tom?

[savant111]

Originally Posted by cky23k

Man I'm really tempted to bottom fish this market and play the dead cat bounce on LPR, MPAA and BTU and the like. I'm really trying to convince myself not to do this, lol.

I'll just sit back and watch these each jump 10% and then proceed to regret not pulling the trigger.

C'mon man you know better. Stick to your long/short game. Your good at it.

[highpsiguy]

Originally Posted by savant111

Psi guy what about the Znga bet Tom?

Why is everyone attacking me with bet wagers since this site is back. I would never bet a dollar in either direction on a company as stupid as Zynga.

[savant111]

Originally Posted by highpsiguy

Why is everyone attacking me with bet wagers since this site is back. I would never bet a dollar in either direction on a company as stupid as Zynga.

Wasn't attacking...bets are fun. You don't like my trade, my dog ate my wallet, seemed like the natural thing to do.