Quote:
Originally Posted by Truthsayer
This has always been my position as well. People spend so much time on visible stocks like AAPL & AMZN when there are way better spots to put the money in with clear edges. Those who think Apple is amazing value and that the market is nuts just aren't looking at this sensibly. What's more, buying now is about the worst thing you can do. Only two things are going to move Apple - an amazing quarter or a fabulous new product. For the first, an options play around earnings is by FAR the best risk/reward. For the second, there'll be time to get in without trying to time the bottom. When the Ipad first came out I said "this is going to be enormous", but it took the market months to start pushing up the stock appreciably. There's definite upside possibility too which makes shorting nuts given the volatility.
People who don't think AAPL could become RIM or NOK need to look at aa graph of smartphone vender and OS history, or Apple's own history when they went nearly bankrupt with the closed ecosystem Mac philosophy as hardware caught up and Apple's initial design advantage became secondary to superior software and a range of hardware. They simply do not remember the highs of RIM in 2008 and what all analysts said at the time. Something similar will happen again given the complete lack of innovation from Apple and their weakness in software. RIMM was worth more than $100 billion less than five years ago, with the untouchable market leader heading into an explosively growing market, and most analysts thought people were nuts to predict their demise.
That's a really, really good post. 5 years ago everyone was saying the iphone was a cute little product, that Rimm would never become Nokia, and the iphone would never put a dent in the blackberry's market penetration. The execs at Rimm were openly mocking its touch screen and talking about how their hold on the market was secure. All the while, they're innovation of the blackberry had slowed considerably. What did the execs at Apple recently do in response to the new Samsung phone? They mocked it and said the same stuff the Rimm guys said 5 years ago, all while the iphone's innovations have slowed down a ton.
BTW, this is coming from someone who has owned a macbook pro, 4 ipads, 4 iphones, an ipod shuffle, an ipod touch, and has one of the new 27" imacs in the house. I'm not a "hater," I love the products, I just think the company's growth is behind us and the stock is ultimately (1-3 years) going lower. I'm only long for a short term bounce.
Last edited by BeachJustice; 03-17-2013 at 12:16 AM.