To me. It is pretty simple. Both sides are very risky to hold. The risk/reward presented on either side is not worth it IMO. It is pretty fair to say that aapl will not be a 10 bagger any time soon or ever. It is also fair to say that the downside comes with risk to shorts as this stock has dropped 40 percent in the past year and has a clean balance sheet. A dead cat bounce could easily happen. I lean on the short side , but it's not worth it imo. There are much better candidates out there.

This makes perfect sense to me. I'm definitely a rookie, and using a chunk of money to learn. Me buying APPL is as much a learning thing as it is an investment. Just trying to buy low really.

I'm going to consult you from now on.

This has always been my position as well. People spend so much time on visible stocks like AAPL & AMZN when there are way better spots to put the money in with clear edges. Those who think Apple is amazing value and that the market is nuts just aren't looking at this sensibly. What's more, buying now is about the worst thing you can do. Only two things are going to move Apple - an amazing quarter or a fabulous new product. For the first, an options play around earnings is by FAR the best risk/reward. For the second, there'll be time to get in without trying to time the bottom. When the Ipad first came out I said "this is going to be enormous", but it took the market months to start pushing up the stock appreciably. There's definite upside possibility too which makes shorting nuts given the volatility.

People who don't think AAPL could become RIM or NOK need to look at aa graph of smartphone vender and OS history, or Apple's own history when they went nearly bankrupt with the closed ecosystem Mac philosophy as hardware caught up and Apple's initial design advantage became secondary to superior software and a range of hardware. They simply do not remember the highs of RIM in 2008 and what all analysts said at the time. Something similar will happen again given the complete lack of innovation from Apple and their weakness in software. RIMM was worth more than $100 billion less than five years ago, with the untouchable market leader heading into an explosively growing market, and most analysts thought people were nuts to predict their demise.

That's a really, really good post. 5 years ago everyone was saying the iphone was a cute little product, that Rimm would never become Nokia, and the iphone would never put a dent in the blackberry's market penetration. The execs at Rimm were openly mocking its touch screen and talking about how their hold on the market was secure. All the while, they're innovation of the blackberry had slowed considerably. What did the execs at Apple recently do in response to the new Samsung phone? They mocked it and said the same stuff the Rimm guys said 5 years ago, all while the iphone's innovations have slowed down a ton.

BTW, this is coming from someone who has owned a macbook pro, 4 ipads, 4 iphones, an ipod shuffle, an ipod touch, and has one of the new 27" imacs in the house. I'm not a "hater," I love the products, I just think the company's growth is behind us and the stock is ultimately (1-3 years) going lower. I'm only long for a short term bounce.

That was a really good post except I don't understand the bolded part. Personally when I use an android phone or an ios phone, I find that the ios phone is extremely easier to use. I guess my question is how is Apple's software weak? Also, about the underlined part all I wanted to say is even though they have missed innovations lately they are considerably more innovative than RIMM was or ever will be.

I answered in the Apple thread.

Well put TS . Again , I must say , and I am sure even the bears agree with me. Aapl is a solid Co. It has a clean balance sheet , there might be a taxation problem down the line , but otherwise it is clean. The problem will be its declining margins and rate of growth.

Man I was in an Apple store yesterday. If their growth is slowing, it's not showing in the bloody stores.

Not to derail the thread with more aapl talk, but all the aapl mega bears I know all think windows and or droid is going to take over the world. Just my observation but aapl seems to be popular with the younger middle to upper class crowd while windows phones/tablets are really popular with Indian software developers. Microsofts way of thinking always seems to be, lets take Apple's good idea and add outlook and excel. I would bet a lot of people aren't interested in bringing their work everywhere.

So I asked before and got no comments. Most sites talking about massive amounts of money spilling into SDS, aka the ultra short of the S&P 500

http://www.proshares.com/funds/sds.html

thoughts on betting against the market now?

It's early. You can go early if you want, but should understand the risk is higher.

Know your time frame and know how much your willing to risk (i.e., where your stop will be placed.)

Market not liking this Cyprus news, gold up nicely

Should be interesting tomorrow

I'm having trouble understanding the cause and effect between the 9.9% tax on deposits over 100 000 Euros, and the average person in Cyprus making a run to draw down funds. What does the average person have to do with a 100k deposit?

Or was the run on banks due to a fear of them going under ?

If you had $20k in a bank and this happened, how safe would you feel about your money? I mean its essentially outright theft on those accounts.

This is one of the most mind-blowing things I've ever seen, it could cause panic bank runs in half the EZ countries.

This is probably what turns gold from bear to bull. I'm prob going to start looking to trade the miners here in the next couple months. Talk about values you guys can have AIG ill take the Precious metals miners anyday.

What about the double-triple levered golds Monday?

Sort of thinking about Bull gold and Bear S&P right at the open Monday. Should be all kinds of momentum I'd think?

I actually think we will see 2 or more down days this week for the overall market

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nugt&ql=1

for a trade on Gold

Maybe. I'm still waiting for a good solid reversal. I wouldn't trade triple leverage anything unless you know what you are doing. IMO there will be plenty of time to catch the next bull move in the PM miners I'll let someone else try to time their bottom.

Cyprus is trending on twitter. I think tomorrow is going to be explosive.

They want to tax deposits < 100k at 6.75%... but it looks like they are considering trying to reduce that (and increase the % on deposits > 100k)... a bit like trying to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Man I'm both saddened and excited for tomorrow. Weird combination.

Wow just opened a Euro chart. Incredible, straight line down.

You must be missing the magnitude of what's going on. There's a fear of the whole state going under. And nevermind just Cypriot banks, this threatens deposits in any of the periphery countries.

Tax is not just over 100k btw, it's on all deposits at varying levels.

Ya the cnn article is/was awful, made no mention of that. I've read it on other sites now and get it.

What were they thinking? Now of all times to try something like that? Obviously people in other countries are being given hints to make a run on the banks. So bad.

It's mainly political, Germans don't want to put in money to protect Russian money. Especially with an election coming up. It's mind boggling though, they did this to protect the banking system, without realising what they've actually done. The amount needed was pocket change too.

well...held my 13.1k of uvxy over weekend (cardinal sin) because it was so flat thurs/fri (and i missed a .30 scalping opportunity and kinda tilted about the missed 4k profit trading in ranges all day because had to be away from computer).


anyway...if it opens near 10, that should trigger a flood of auto short covering (5 mil shares short, 20-25 percent float), along with VIX rise throughout day. so new game plan, 10% tailing stop limit, set it and forget it. VIX could be in the 20's by end of week (or by end of tomorrow, wishful thinking?)....or it could be flat, market is weird.....best case is eurozone wide run on cash, pure panic....pure gambool.

gogogogogogogogo

gold and volatility traders should have a fun ride tomorrow.