June 2012 Trading Thread

[savant111]

Originally Posted by BluffingX

I sold spy at 132.80, currently it's at 132.50.. but my P&L shows negative.

Can anyone shed some light on this? Shouldn't I be in profit right now?

I don't know how many shares you shorted, but you might be down by the amount you paid in commissions?

[savant111]

Think the top is officially in here for the week at 132.85. Surprised it got that high in the first place though so what do I know.

Going to work, I'll be holding over the weekend. Gl to all those still trading

[highstakesfan]

I have been on the wrong side of the mkt all day. Ugh

[cky23k]

Originally Posted by savant111

LNKD is setting up nicely on the short side.

EXPE up 2.41% today. If anyone out there is bullish on the general market, this guy is a winner.

LNKD has had some major accumulation the past few weeks, so be very careful if you do decide shorting this.

[cky23k]

Originally Posted by savant111

LNKD is setting up nicely on the short side.

EXPE up 2.41% today. If anyone out there is bullish on the general market, this guy is a winner.

Agreed, EXPE looks bullish; however, I think you may be able to get a better entry price than now.

[jfresh]

Originally Posted by cky23k

LNKD has had some major accumulation the past few weeks, so be very careful if you do decide shorting this.

Kind of a noob- can you explain what you mean by 'major accumulation'?

[cky23k]

Originally Posted by jfresh

Kind of a noob- can you explain what you mean by 'major accumulation'?

Sure, what this means is the accumulation/distribution line 'AD line' has risen sharply over the past few weeks. It's a technical indicator that attempts to measure the supply and demand of a particular security.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...lation_distrib

IMO, the AD line used in conjunction with a few other indicators can be a very useful way of predicting future price action.

[savant111]

Really surprised at the strength today. Everyone betting on a bailout? Short covering? Price manipulation by the big boys? Wtf am I missing?

[savant111]

Originally Posted by cky23k

Agreed, EXPE looks bullish; however, I think you may be able to get a better entry price than now.

I'm not looking to get in here cause I still think market needs to go down further. This is the kind of stock you buy and hold it through a bull cycle when it comes. (then again I haven't "held" anything for about 5 month now

Can't comment on LNKD accumulation just yet as I haven't looked at the chart since I've been home. I listed it as a watchlist canadate because I see it reaching the top of its range and the market must be approaching overbought status soon. I also don't think the social sector has bottomed. I don't use an A/D line but I do follow volume very closely Across a few different charts. I'll take a look later and maybe we can discuss some more.

Do you have any opinions on my Spy short?

[savant111]

Originally Posted by jfresh

Kind of a noob- can you explain what you mean by 'major accumulation'?

Just to add to CKY's response. Accumulation refers to buying being done by hedge funds and other institutional investors, the "smart money" if you will. This is important because it's these smart money players that make stock prices go up and down.

Distribution refers to selling by these same hedge funds.

Theyre are many ways to get an idea of accumulation and distribution. I like to
look at three things: 1) intraday volume for the past 5 days 2) daily volume and compared to prior few days 3) daily volume compared to the avg volume of the past 50 days.

Hope that helps.

[tastychicken2]

Originally Posted by savant111

Really surprised at the strength today. Everyone betting on a bailout? Short covering? Price manipulation by the big boys? Wtf am I missing?

market is predicting/speculating(not everyone ofc, but more people) more monetary stimulus. that's been the trend since the poor china pmi report.

i cut my LT treasury trade in half earlier in the week when rates were ~1.50% on 10-yr.

still have SPY short on. Looking back I should've done it on the rydex 500 or acwi but I guess that's part of learning (was my first short). i think SPY larger weight to HQ companies which don't go down as much in downturn.

[savant111]

Chicken, out of curiosity is there an area your looking to cover. You've been in since 139ish correct?

[savant111]

SXCI is another chart that's looking pretty good on the long side. If anyone is bullish on the market there they might want to take a look.

CKY took a look at the LNKD chart. I'm looking at real weak volume on the up trend. It's currently at a resistance level right here. If it breaks it might get one more run, but I expect much lower prices within the next two weeks or so barring this market rallying on something real.

[savant111]

Game plan June 11th-13th.

Really debated it both ways, but I think I finalized putting my stop in at 136.69 (3 pts highter than originally planned). Bottom line is unless a real bailout happens in Spain (and it is big enough to please the market) the spy is going to take at least one more trip lower. Moving the stop up gives the trade some time to work.

If actual positive news comes out in Europe and the market actually buys it I reserve the right to change my mind and cover early.

If I profit I plan on covering half in the 130 area and freeroll the rest.

[tastychicken2]

cover if:

1. fed/europe announces stimulus of reasonable size (est. $500B+)
2. markets go low enough where risk/reward isn't desirable (in my view) at 1200-1250

i shorted the s&p b/c i'm more familiar with the s&p and estimates for the s&p (part of the thesis was 2013 estimates being too high). now that i look back i don't think it was the right security to short out of my choices. anyone have any tips on evaluating shorting something for which they don't have estimates for? are you really just look at price?