June 2012 Trading Thread

[NajdorfDefense]

Originally Posted by highstakesfan

RIMM so sick afterhours

Why do I feel being constantly short RIM [and NOK] is free money?

Yeah, takeout possibilities, but still...not like it'll get bot at $20.

[tastychicken2]

For anyone else with access to Merrill research....

I highly recommend checking out Michael Hartnett's "The Longest Pictures"

[Biesterfield]

I have access, cliffs on what it is about?

[tastychicken2]

it's 1 chart after another with graphs of at least 90 years

[NajdorfDefense]

Originally Posted by tastychicken2

covering SPY short at open

don't feel comfortable w/ it given merkel backing down once... which means it can happen again easily

here comes the mega rally

wow, the Inst'l guys ramped the market the last day of a down Q? Unpossible!

I am shocked, shocked there is gambling at Rick's.

[disputable]

Originally Posted by cky23k

All Pharms are going crazy, being led by ARNA. I wouldn't touch Pharms now though, all are way overbought. I would be watching PCYC to retract to $48ish.

small biotechs have been depressed for YEARS with end-to-end shorting of many HFs + manipulation on the media against the selected few that did succeed, so this was a lose-lose to biotech investors that pretty much had no chance.

Some may recall DNDN in 2007, but the current situation with ARNA is ugly. Bilveq has just been approved and the current manipulated(?) mkt cap represents a 1% peak market penetration in 2016 (discounted etc - done and verified all calculations) yet WS is touting VVUS that will likely to get approved BUT with a lot of REMS and other limitations (if approved). H-U-G-E potential market for both. Worth looking. Will shortly post about a few other interesting biotechs.

So - along with the acquisition of AMLN we start seeing the revive of the small biotech sector - a few more pops and we could start seeing the meltdown of some of the weaker HFs that short biotechs. Could be fun.

[disputable]

Originally Posted by 2balls

I've been watching ISR and ONVO. Have yet to dig into their financials though. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the co's listed.

Will focus on 2

NAVB: already popping - PDUFA date in early Sep with very little risk (IMHO) as their Lymposeek diagnostic showed superior test results. Decision was delayed due to CMC considerations, not statistical/scientific. PPS will likely jump to around $7 (currently @ $4 after a nice run recently) around PDUFA. Excellent partnership for Lymphoseek + interesting pipeline moving ahead.

MNKD: the riskier play, but despite the recent pop it has a lot more to gain thru their PDUFA (my realistic expectation in Jan 2014, not H2 2013) where pps can pop to $20 as their insulyn inhaler is FAR superior (size, efficacy) to the failed Exunera (just Google-up Afrezza and Exubera photos to see the diff). Repeated p-3 study will be fully enrolled very soon and it has very little scientific risks. Will also be interesting to see how they address the financing challenge (a must in the next 6-9 months) via a dillution (ulgy) or more likely via a partnership OR the owner, the biotech veteran billionaire Alfred Mann puts his pocket money it ...

In addition (and on top of ARNA), I have smaller long positions in DSCO and DNDN - both depend "only" on execution (they have approved products in hand) but have failed to deliver so far. However, their potential is 4-5X from now IF done right. I had a small position in DVAX but decided to sell since their PDUFA date was a bit late (Feb 2013) so I might join later again.

I will be happy to hear about other interesting small-biotech opportunities as this sector COULD eventually explode after so many depressing years.

[spino1i]

So anyone here still looking at shorting AMZN? Its only getting higher and higher and further away from its true value. Now at $252/share. For those who still think its worth its value does that change when its $300? $400?