thanks BTM,, you are right,,


im exiting my 12/16 49.5 in between 1.10 and 1.20 and buying the 12/30 48's @ 1.10, seems like a fish move for sure, hoping hlf goes to 30 in two weeks basically

getting in on some mid january NKE , 50.5 , 51 puts.. think they will keep trending lower

What is your exit strategy if the change in price proves you were incorrect?

I hate to believe in support/resistance, but sometimes you see the wave coming in that show that I am wrong on the short term at least.


I have taken some big L's as my hfl puts expired worthless , and now i was forced to cover my wtw short at a big loss (9.85) covered at 13.70 avg.

I am trying to limit my number of trades as i seem to be off and not evaluating situations , playing puts on earnings have been my bread and butter, and will try to stick to that more.


bought MON 105 1/20 puts @ 1.48 avg

In trading "being wrong" means the price is going the wrong way. Here would be an example of an exit plan if things move against you:

"If the bid on the puts I purchased drops below $1.03, I will sell them no matter what and use the proceeds to purchase some Pepto Bismol and for future trades."

Since you are having trouble getting out of trades gone wrong, I think you are smart just buying puts.

1. Why do you have an edge?

- if it is a value edge then a fair market value is your target
- if you have an momentum edge then a short term factor to detect market slowdown before reversal is your target
- if you have a timing edge then a time measure of edge dissipation is best ( f.e. after x days)
- if you have a reversal edge then protective exit after the reversal has started are a must just to protect for those rare market mishaps of irrational momentum mispricing

(all of this above should be assessed by measurement...ldo oos backtesting)

Anyhow...there is an intrinsic edge in low probability trades just because there is a very low market demand to take them...(tail risk trades) so a lot of small losses and b.e. situations could be a result of you taking those trades and could not be fixed otherwise as taking early exits would put the expectancy in the negative

lol, wp

/thread

nice of you to mock me, as i have been in a slump for a while, i did cover the stock short correctly, and my entry point was the low 60's so it wasnt a total loss. yes, i do have an edge,, always have had one.. do i have nasty drawdowns sometimes? yes, but i have always adjusted.


took a couple weeks off , today i initiated 2 positions,, shorted NKE and DNB 52.85 and 124 respectively,, also bought some longer term puts.. the market is hitting new highs, but i do feel this is the correct entry point for both stocks.

covered some of the dnb puts (8bagger) and stock at 102.. still holding on to 70% of the position,.. actually thinking of adding to nke position,, good to finally hit a multi bagger

bought ATVI puts the 3/17 39 @ 1.56 avg.


lagging behind probably means their purchase of king digital is not panning out.

But how much did you lose?

actually going to lose on my atvi position as well.. real feast or famine right now . good thing im laying pretty low

Exiting any trade, whether short term or long term, is the most difficult decision in investing.

It's the decision fraught with the most emotion. Subject to the most behavioral biases.

We've gone fully quant to remove those emotions and behavioral biases from the equation.

For any trader, I would suggest testing and developing a set of exit rules, and sticking to them. Sell discipline is crucial.

agree, i try to set fixed numbers on exit points and 90% of the time i adhere to them,, I think a trader's biggest leak is taking profits too early and im trying to correct that, but sometimes its prudent to take some risk off the table, its about finding that balance..


added

TRIP sold short @ 52.12 avg , also some 51,52,50.5 mid march put contracts.. not a huge position, but meaningful.

so TRIP has been a good run so far, and while it hit a 52 week low today, it also bounced off it pretty fast and is now up for the day,, should i cover some here? it has been on a nice freefall since earnings,, still holding that half of DNB.

added TBT @ 38.95 and bought some mid march 39 , 40 calls .

PCLN ER is tonight, it all depends on how you feel about that because that's the next catalyst and the TRIP options market has been pretty active today.

Not sure why you are going short rates now given how strong TLT has held up (call spreads have been very productive for me). There is a ton of shorter term money on that side while TLT is forming a huge base at $117- $118.

yeah, i was thinking that this might have to do with pcln as well, they have always kicked ass it seems, but i view pcln to trip as some viewed intc to amd . im just going off reading the tape on tbt and past moves.

PCLN once again crushes, they are fantastic for shareholders who clearly don't sell and just hold. Haven't missed a report since 2010.

TRIP is a much different story, what's your plan going forward?

My options expire in 9 days and the prudent thing to do is cover them on a one point move from here (as I bought a little under 2 and now they are worth 8) , as for the stock , I still think it's over valued and have an entry price of 52 and will cover around 48 if need be.

still holding on to DNB short/puts, covered half TRIP puts, but it shows weakness even on a day like today . TBT calls doing nicely, still holding them.

shorted BUD @ 109.93 , and bought some 105 puts for march and april. really liking my risk reward here with bud.

so in my goal to auto set some of my trading. I took a loss on KIRK (13.8 -11.25) , which is a pity because i like the stock, but tape is saying otherwise. i also covered TRIP for a nice gain (52-41) and the puts for 5x bagger . finally hitting back to back trades, which is where i go on big runs.. current positions in avg account

nke 4/21 52.5 puts
nke 4/21 55 puts
dnb 3/17 120 puts
spxs long @ 10
tbt 3/17 39 calls
bud 4/21 105 puts

SPXS and TBT are bad ideas. If we are going to go down, it most likely won't be straight down. You will get eaten alive by the rebalancing, so you lose when you are wrong, you lose if nothing much happens and you will lose a significant portion of the times when you are right.

You are betting that the underlyings will drop AND will do so with little volatility.

Preach brother

i agree 100% with you, and in hindsight the spxs move was a bad one, as for tbt , i was expecting a bigly move quick, i bought the 39 calls (3/17) for 80 cents, and I plan not to let these go below my purchase price, I also expect some type of retracement over the next 5 days , I am not holding these two for longer than that at most. i fully agree with you though.

TLT relative strength is pretty strong given we know there are 3 hikes coming now. Seems everything is already priced in.

you beat me to the punch,, got rid of all of them @ 40.40 avg and almost doubled on the tbt calls @ 1.65 avg,, so I was hoping one more run up, but ill take the gains for now..