Deflation and fiat currency rally generally happens before a big inflationary move. (possibly even hyperinflation)

The Gov. has pushed yields so low that it is craziness (negative real returns) to hold them.

China is effectively been upgraded to a primary dealer status and no one knows what they are doing. Some data shows that they are selling treasuries and buying gold to back the new world reserve currency.

They (China) bailed on Europe and are looking to invest in Africa: "The Chinese sovereign wealth fund would “love” to boost investments in Africa, Gao said."

Goa, "We still have our people looking at opportunities in Europe, even though we don’t want to buy any government bonds.”


Interesting article : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...-backwardation

I think that "commodities" and "real estate" should be broken down a bit. For insistence: oil will not react the same as wheat during an "end game," Commercial real estate will not act similarly to farmland during an "end game."


So what could you be looking at?

Farmland at all time highs
Gold at all time highs (consolidating off artificial buying restrictions i.e margins and laws [India])
"Greek Exit a Done Deal" (tip of the iceberg)
Spain (small iceberg)
China HSBC PMI numbers are not good (again) (Iceberg)
Europe aftermath (Iceberg)

Where is growth coming from? Seems like I want to be with the smartest guys in the room at the moment (China). Buy gold, buy land (for food, mining, water, strategic significance etc) in underdeveloped countries with dollars.

The only real option is Africa, under developed Asian countries (Not India), and maybe South America.

Add political, and military unrest into the equation and you get...? Gold? US arable land?

I honestly don't know. Might as well diversify, buy some gold, and some land just in case.

dc_publius; Entitlement programs "quick and easy" fix.

Sorry but that made me laugh. Tell that to Europe and the Greek people. Also are you so naive to keep allowing the government to raise the retirement age?

Pay into a fund, expect to retire at x death at Y. Legally have to keep paying into fund, even though they mismanage funds and mismanage costs. Now x+2. x+2 x+2..... x is quickly approaching Y. (Granted, technology is increasing life expectancy but obviously not at the rate of change for increases in retirement age you are proposing.)

So if retirement age is quickly approaching your life expectancy... at what point do you say screw you? Pretty early in the process I hope.

Who is going to pay for the "Baby Boom" generation?

Exact numbers are hard to come by but people <25yo have a >18% unemployment rate....

Seems like things are pretty crazy out there. Looking to hold large "Buffet" like companies, gold (physical), underdeveloped nation's debt, Renminbi, guns (lol yes) and arable land. Diversify blah blah blah.

short US gov debt? maybe.

Just my 2 cents. GL everyone

Goa quotes: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...oncern-1-.html

not practical.

wat?

Case study: Japan.


The primary interest in T-bonds is security, not yield. And the demand for security is at an all time high.
Wat? You apparently don't know what a primary dealer is.

And if China's selling bonds, someone else is buying far more, because yields are at record lows out on the yield curve.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%...5ETNX;range=5y

That's my primary problem with goldbug arguments - they frequently play on common fears (the Chinese are coming to get us!) while ignoring observed facts (record low yield in T-bonds).
Yeah, OK, have fun with that.

Give one case study that refutes hypothesis out of probably over 20 that supports.

I was talking about the yield on gov debt in general. The flight to safety is overcrowded, which the contrarian would argue that: that means there is more value on the other side of the trade.

Correct, China is not a "Primary Dealer." "China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury’s first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters."* China doesn't have to go through Wall Street anymore. They can deal directly with the US Gov. By doing this they pretty much cover up their actions.

Yes, if someone is selling (China) someone is buying (US gov., Wall Street and everyone in the world that thinks the US is the safest place to put your money, you?). I think you can look at the Fed's balance sheet for this?


China is buying increasing amounts of gold and natural resources with that money.

Personally, I generally don't want to be on the opposite side of the trade that China is on (nor US but at this point you have to pick who will raise from the ashes).

Even if you don't agree with everything I have to say...
What do you think the end game for Europe is?
How will high unemployment in US and Europe affect growth?
How will a slowing China affect the world?
How will US entitlement programs work in 15 years?
How will the Fed respond?
How will that change the value of currency x, y, z?

I am just trying to rationalize everything that is going on. I think Jim Rogers is a very smart man and generally when I don't understand something I seek out people who do; I think he does.

Let me know if I get anything wrong, I am here to learn.

* http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...84K11720120521

Can somebody please tell me how i can starta new thread? Thank!

What?!? Borrowing is the standard method to purchase real estate.

I've seen you tout the mad-max argument as justification for not being bullish on gold in other threads as well, which was the basis for my response.


If by gold bug, you mean bullish on gold, yes, sure. If by gold bug, you mean someone who always has been and always intends to be bullish on gold without exception, no. I'll move money into other asset classes when the smoke has cleared and many of the ticking time bombs have finished exploding.

1.) It's one reason, not the only reason.

2.) I google'd the definition of gold bug, and here's what came up.

Definition of 'Gold Bug'

An individual who is bullish on gold.

Gold Bug
An investor or investment adviser who keeps a portfolio consisting largely or exclusively of gold and gold-related products, especially when most other investors are not doing so.

gold bug
An individual who thinks that investors should keep all or part of their assets in the form of gold.

Any of several North American beetles, especially Metriona bicolor, having a golden metallic luster. Also called gold beetle.
A supporter of the gold standard.
A speculator in or a purchaser of gold.


Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/the-gold-bug#ixzz1w12I1ucM



I think you're a gold bug (by most people's definition) I do not think you're a beetle though lol

Terminology is highly contextual, obviously. Many people associate the term "gold bug" with people who are bullish on gold in any economic/financial climate, which was why I made the clarification. Point still remains that gold increasing is not dependent on hyperinflation or mad-max.

Aren't "deflationary" times the best time to make inflation bets?

IMO, t-bills = biggest bubble ever. Investors have been burned twice in recent times in the stock market. It's typical that the crowd will get burned again.

I never said it did (we agree on something it seems).

I only addressed that argument because the thread title has "crisis" in it.