Originally Posted by SplawnDarts
This is correct. The only dollar crisis on the horizon is a shortage of them as everyone runs to T-bonds for safety from Europe. We're closer to deflation than major inflation.
Deflation and fiat currency rally generally happens before a big inflationary move. (possibly even hyperinflation)
The Gov. has pushed yields so low that it is craziness (negative real returns) to hold them.
China is effectively been upgraded to a primary dealer status and no one knows what they are doing. Some data shows that they are selling treasuries and buying gold to back the new world reserve currency.
They (China) bailed on Europe and are looking to invest in Africa: "The Chinese sovereign wealth fund would “love” to boost investments in Africa, Gao said."
Goa, "We still have our people looking at opportunities in Europe, even though we don’t want to buy any government bonds.”
Interesting article : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...-backwardation
I think that "commodities" and "real estate" should be broken down a bit. For insistence: oil will not react the same as wheat during an "end game," Commercial real estate will not act similarly to farmland during an "end game."
So what could you be looking at?
Farmland at all time highs
Gold at all time highs (consolidating off artificial buying restrictions i.e margins and laws [India])
"Greek Exit a Done Deal" (tip of the iceberg)
Spain (small iceberg)
China HSBC PMI numbers are not good (again) (Iceberg)
Europe aftermath (Iceberg)
Where is growth coming from? Seems like I want to be with the smartest guys in the room at the moment (China). Buy gold, buy land (for food, mining, water, strategic significance etc) in underdeveloped countries with dollars.
The only real option is Africa, under developed Asian countries (Not India), and maybe South America.
Add political, and military unrest into the equation and you get...? Gold? US arable land?
I honestly don't know. Might as well diversify, buy some gold, and some land just in case.
Entitlement programs "quick and easy" fix.
Sorry but that made me laugh. Tell that to Europe and the Greek people. Also are you so naive to keep allowing the government to raise the retirement age?
Pay into a fund, expect to retire at x death at Y. Legally have to keep paying into fund, even though they mismanage funds and mismanage costs. Now x+2. x+2 x+2..... x is quickly approaching Y. (Granted, technology is increasing life expectancy but obviously not at the rate of change for increases in retirement age you are proposing.)
So if retirement age is quickly approaching your life expectancy... at what point do you say screw you? Pretty early in the process I hope.
Who is going to pay for the "Baby Boom" generation?
Exact numbers are hard to come by but people <25yo have a >18% unemployment rate....
Seems like things are pretty crazy out there. Looking to hold large "Buffet" like companies, gold (physical), underdeveloped nation's debt, Renminbi, guns (lol yes) and arable land. Diversify blah blah blah.
short US gov debt? maybe.
Just my 2 cents. GL everyone
Goa quotes: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...oncern-1-.html