Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclear500
It is more correct to say that because business use computers in the early days was basically IBM and DOS, the transition to Microsoft products happened first in the business and then at home simply because that is what people were familiar with so that is what they sought out to use at home.
If Apple had been the first in the business door...we'd all be on Macs today and Apple wouldn't look anything like it does today.
That's very true, essentially the standardized PC with DOS was such an advance that it spurred a massive amount of software development. Lotus 1,2,3 and WordPerfect made the platform hugely productive for office workers. One of my former CEOs helped run Intel's PC enhancements group at the time and regularly took support calls to keep in touch with what their customers were doing. He start by asking what brand of computer they were using, and he said often they'd say "Lotus".
That's how huge and important those products were, and when the Mac came out businesses said, wow, very interesting, does it run Lotus & Wordperfect? No?? Okay, nevermind then.
Windows was compatible and kept running those DOS apps for a long time, and leveraged businesses investment in software, hardware, training, etc, and Apple never grew out of it's niche.
Looking at phones today it sure looks like Apple is committing some of the same mistakes. Limited hardware choices, "overpriced" hardware if you measure a phone by how much memory/speed it has. More importantly, it's religious attitude towards Flash, restrictive apps policies, and that long exclusivity period with AT&T, have limited there own products functionality.
One the plus side it has a big lead in apps, but that's probably going to be less of an advantage than in PCs. It also has some big advantages in ease of use, consistency, installation/synchronization, etc. Those are hard for analysts to quantify, but they are clearly there.
I also think that Analysts miss one really important dynamic about the phone market that drives people to pay up for the most useful ones. iPhones are $200, and that's consistent with many Android phones. More importantly the cost difference between a $100, $200 or $300 phone is tiny compared to the massive $2,000 service commitment a 2 year contract comes with. For many people the iPhone isn't even be as useful as a Blackberry or Android due to their specific requirements/preferences. But for the rest, they'll happily pay another $100 or so for one.
None of these dynamics are remotely similar to the driving forces that built the PC market, or DVD player market, or the Walkman market, or any previous markets that spring to mind.