Have an interview for an entry-level Bond sales trainee position. Any good blogs I can read up on and mention? They can be general finance blogs or can be more focused on fixed income.

so since economics is so simple, what are your newfound expert thoughts on GDP growth in the coming year? 2 years? 5 years?

bond yields in the next year? 2 years? 5 years?

inflation in the next year? 2 years? 5 years?

unemployment in the next year? 2 years? 5 years?

let's get these on paper and see how you do.

His post makes a lot of sense and I don't think he is trying to claim he knows too much about economics. just an aha moment. He is shocked that "experts" in economics can say something that is completely wrong. A decent analogy is a poker player that gets a really good reputation on ESPN but clearly makes a lot of poor plays and is not good which is very standard. Poker is a little different because of luck but the point is when a person goes into a field he knows little about he tends to trust people who have made a living in said field and have lots of experience. It always comes as a surprise when you remember a specific thing that person said or did and its just flat out incorrect.

They will fluncuate.

Pls send my nobel prize to Casino Arizona high limit room, I'll pick it up after I get unstuck.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...arkets_Barrons

Heh, I remember when I first started reading BFI and about the economy/investing. I was asking the same thing.

Basically, long story short, no, there's nobody whose core arguments are in utter disagreement with his that make sense. He often times will simplify/shorten things for the sake of getting the point across in a short time frame on TV, but his macro economic perspective is generally spot on. I spent enough time reading into the arguments people made against him and the accusations against him being wrong about this and that and generally it's nonsense. Do your own research and decide what you think makes sense.

Significantly lower than what it would be if world economic policy was founded on sound principles.

Significantly higher than what it would be if world economic policy was founded on sound principles (in fact constant deflation would occur if that was the case).

Significantly worse than what it would be if world economic policy was founded on sound principles.

Not sure about these. Compared to what would be the case if world economic policy was founded on sound principles, they will by and large continue to be be higher in nominal and lower in real value I guess?

That's what I thought. Can you give me any links or names that would serve as a good start for this research? Is that John Williams guy any good?

You nailed it except this is an understatement. I am shocked that the majority of experts in economics support theories that are completely nonsensical on a fundamental level, and so badly and obviously so that even I was able to vaguely sense it without any research whatsoever, even though I always assumed that they were reasonable and I just lacked the knowledge necessary to understand it.

I have a question and I don't believe I am able to PM a mod so I will ask it here.

I want to bring up a stock with around a 500m market cap and 100-200 thousand daily volume. Am I allowed to bring that up in the monthly trading thread, can I start my own thread about it or is this considered "pumping" a stock here since it's not a super high volume or large cap. I guess Im asking mods where the proper place to talk about this is.

BC

I'm not a mod but personally I think it's fine to make your own thread about a stock as long as you put some solid reasoning behind it. Just dumping something here and saying it'll double in 3 months isn't appreciated.

im convinced. how do you make money off hyper inflation?

I think for the layman it's not realistic to actually gain purchasing power off of hyperinflation, the question is how to lose the least? I think buying commodities is the standard answer? I suspect the precious metal train must be already so full by now that other options might seem more attractive? I'm considering buying oil and agricultural produce with my meager €3K lol.

I'm a total n00b though, I'm actually just hoping to get more competent people to feel the urge to destroy such an inadequate thought process so that I could pick up some insights from it.

definitely gold and from my understanding prices should go down when the lame duck ends

Um, I don't understand, you were talking about hyperinflation and now you are talking about prices going down?

Also, isn't pretty much everyone now saying buy gold buy gold? Isn't it pretty much impossible then for gold to be anywhere near be the best option?

Yea, I think it should go to intent. If you trade based on technicals, then offer a reasonably detailed technical argument for your position. If you invest/trade on fundamentals, momentum, etc, do the same. Don't have a thin skin when people question your math, logic, conclusion, etc. Just consider their questions reasonably and try to offer reasonable responses. It's never wrong to reconsider an idea, there are smart people here who can make you think.

But if you just cheerlead the stock, or rumour monger, or use simplistic arguments (it's got a 7 PE!), or decline to do any reasonable research or offer any reasonably factual data, then you are going to seem like a pumper, not a true investor/trader.

Hey guys there is a technology company i'm looking at. its stock price is $15.24. should i buy it?

Put everything you have in it!

I prefer blackjack or craps, but to each his own.

I've been trying to get into trading for a little while now and have been trying to learn as much as I can in hopes of finding an "edge." However, I think I need help with my method. Mainly, I've been reading books/articles and thinking about the markets myself (thinking what makes sense to me) and hoping for some kind of epiphany that will result in an edge. This epiphany has not come and it is leading me to believe there has to be a more systematic approach to producing an edge. Does anyone have any insights into the learning process or how I can make my learning more systematic?

Not worth it's own thread, but ABOUT what would a fair payment (for one person in one bedroom) for rent+all utils/internet on a 3+ Bedroom, 1 Bathroom house in a decent neighborhood that is worth $175K

If you define having an "edge" as beating the market then you are most likely searching for the holy grail. Very very few people constantly beat the market. There is a lot of research which shows that amateurs have almost no hope of doing so (and probably something like 99% of professional fail as well). In fact, most research shows that amateurs trying to beat the market nearly always UNDER perform it, rather than beat it. This is mostly due to poor stock picking and paying huge trading fees.

You can get an "edge" by educating yourself but the edge will be gained in staying indexed to the market, paying lower trading fees, being properly diversified, and in buying low and selling high. The final one is particularly important because even though every person knows this simple maxim, the vast majority of amateurs do the exact opposite.


(Caveat: I am new to the market also but have been doing a ton of research over the last 6 months and the above advice it what I have gleaned so far.)

The more I read the more I believe an edge is a system that will produce positive expectancy as opposed to the holy grail some traders look for (the one technical indicator that will always be right). Positive expectancy excepts that some trades will work out and others will not but if the system is followed it will produce a positive result. An edge can be as simple as identifying a trend and following it. The trend will continue sometimes and sometimes it could stall or reverse.

Also, it seems one of the most important ideas for trading is identifying realistic risk to reward ratios before entering your trade.

I just want to check if I'm right on this,

For stocks held less than a year, you have to pay short term capital gains on it at your marginal tax rate. I think there was a form where you fill in what all your capital gains were on the tax returns. So for every stock that you sell, you have to keep track and fill out a form to the IRS? Doesn't this mean that you day traders are filling out thousands of forms every April 14th? I know the brokerages will send you statements and what not, but wouldn't it still be a gigantic PITA? I really hate filling forms, is there something I'm missing?

Nope heh. Thats why good record keeping is essential. For people who move significant volume they generally have something in place that keeps track of it for them.

Online brokers are getting better about providing the details at tax time but people who move big volume usually don't use your regular online retailer.

Also, they aren't doing it by hand (paper and pencil) and usually don't do it all in one sitting. You do have months (hopefully) before things are due.

God no, you are missing nothing. I'm not a day trader, maybe 20 different stocks each year each with about 20 different trades for each stock. And I spent probably 6-8 hours just matching up trades in December so I could estimate my taxable income for the years.

The real joy is when you've owned something for years and realize the broker doesn't have statements back that far. Or you forgot about a years old stock split/dividend/etc.

My advice for anyone who is doing a lot of taxable trading is always do a year end download of all trades and save them on your PC in excel, and keep them forever. That way you don't have the internet or your broker crap out on you while your blood pressure is already at it's annual high because you ARE DOING YOUR G*DD*MN TAXES!

Anyone know anything on Five Rings Capital?