Quote:
Originally Posted by DesertCat
And while DcifrThs can weigh in with proprietary experience to rebut my contention, I still contend that randomly backtesting various stock components isn't likely to lead to a pattern that will persist or be profitably tradable.
you of all people should know i 100% agree with your statement here, DC.
Quote:
If it can be mechanized, and automated, DcifrThs is just one of thousands of professionals who can do it better, faster, and with more capital than you. Matching company fundamental data patterns to future price movements should be pretty much childs play for any wall street quant.
partly true.
the issue becomes one of motivation and scale, which are related in this case. i could probably think of a few ways build a profitable screening/trading tool for small cap companies pretty readily but a) a machine couldn't trade it profitably (or it would take a ton more work to reasearch/code the execution vs. manually doing the execution), and b) i don't have the coding skills and reliable data access to make that happen.
i think one thing people generally overlook is the access to data and the cost therein when actually executing profitable trading systems. it's expensive.
in general though, fundamental systems are far harder to build profitably nowadays and DC's point is very true. i'm a dinasour now in this case.
i have a friend who has a sick system and the only issue he has now is making a deal to get 5millisecond data from the CME to trade currency futures (not profitable trading spot fx due to transaction costs). when (not if) he gets it up and running, it'll make him a ton. the problem is it reaches capacity almost immediately and has, as a result, a max it can make with no ability to go beyond that. so it'll be great for him, he just can't sell it and make a ton more or scale it up to make a ton more.
the point is, there's many ways to generate profitable sub-second trading systems and there are now very few ways to generate fundamental ones. there are market inefficiencies that pop up, but you have to be on the look out for them.
the guy asking about monthly BS data is pretty hilarious though. that's like asking the govt to put out monthly GDP data lol.