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Old 05-08-2009, 12:52 PM   #101
durkadurka33
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by chucky View Post
Clearly durka thinks mccain is president http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/us...ambling&st=cse
No, I guess no one got the reference.
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Old 05-08-2009, 02:53 PM   #102
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Thing is, businesses can use the stimulus package as backing for its future forecasts, so maybe a power company can say "ok, this project will cost a billion over 5 years, lets start hiring 20% more people now to prepare and invest in 200 million dollars worth of products from steel maker X".
I general I agree, but what percentage of stimulus spending is even specific enough to forecast anything on? IIRC the vast majority of the stimulus package was things like weatherizing lower-income homes and government buildings, unemployment extensions, grants to by awarded by xyz agency, small weekly tax cuts to workers, and the like. What businesses can reliably forecast anything based on this type of spending?

China's infrastructure-heavy stimulus package seems to fit your scenario much better than America's. I could be wrong though.

Last edited by T50_Omaha8; 05-08-2009 at 02:55 PM. Reason: . didn't realize there was a page 2 when I posted this; ignore if you'd like
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Old 05-08-2009, 06:27 PM   #103
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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I general I agree, but what percentage of stimulus spending is even specific enough to forecast anything on? IIRC the vast majority of the stimulus package was things like weatherizing lower-income homes and government buildings, unemployment extensions, grants to by awarded by xyz agency, small weekly tax cuts to workers, and the like. What businesses can reliably forecast anything based on this type of spending?

China's infrastructure-heavy stimulus package seems to fit your scenario much better than America's. I could be wrong though.
I'm not sure, I was more talking about the theory of stimulus packages in general, not necessarily the US's current one. Obviously things like this can make either a good one or a bad one.
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Old 05-08-2009, 07:21 PM   #104
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I have a question.

I own shares in a company that just recently (late 2008) completed a merger with another company. Earnings came out today and earnings were up 55% attributed to this merger, and the stock price shot up 25% today. My initial thought is, isn't that just fake earnings? The company is now one whole company and they are still going to have to continue their business. How does merging automatically make your company so much more profitable?

Also, anyone like Fox Business more than CNBC? That one Cody guy on Fox Business is a douchebag though.
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Old 05-08-2009, 07:36 PM   #105
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I have a newbie question. If I loan out $100k that's agreed to come back to me at 7% interest over the course of 5 years, do I have to pay taxes on the interest? Such as, if the first year I am paid back 20k towards principal and lets say 5k in interest, do I owe taxes on the $20k again that was my own money or just on the interest?
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Old 05-09-2009, 03:07 AM   #106
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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I own shares in a company that just recently (late 2008) completed a merger with another company. Earnings came out today and earnings were up 55% attributed to this merger, and the stock price shot up 25% today. My initial thought is, isn't that just fake earnings? The company is now one whole company and they are still going to have to continue their business. How does merging automatically make your company so much more profitable?
My humble opinion is that the market totally overreacts to earning announcements without doing their due diligence on where those numbers came from. Take a look at GS and Wells Fargo, both of whom used some accounting gimmicks in announcing their previous quarter's earnings. In the case of GS they basically didn't count December, wrote off a whole ****load of losses in that month, then announced a very profitable 1st quarter of 2009 and issued a whole bunch of stock once it became overpriced based on fake earnings announcements.
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Old 05-09-2009, 11:33 PM   #107
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Newb question. I own a handful (50) of shares of both GE and WFC. They were given as a wedding gift right after Christmas. As of Friday they are both right around the number we got them for so total value roughly ~2K.

That's not an insignificant amount of money for me. From reading the GE thread in here it seems most people are down on them. I know nothing about WFC.

Thoughts? Hold, sell, both?
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Old 05-10-2009, 11:56 AM   #108
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

If its a significant amount of money, then you should probably sell them and hold the cash.
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Old 05-10-2009, 01:20 PM   #109
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

gambool, IMO (I'm serious).
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Old 05-10-2009, 07:03 PM   #110
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Can anyone explain to me why the stock market isn't just a Government approved ponzi scheme? I'm speaking about common shares in companies with no dividends.

Also, does anyone have a rebuttal to Mark Cuban's blog post entitled 'The stock market is for suckers':

Quote:
I wanted to respondto Tom Hawks comments. Someone i respect a lot, but who i disagree vehemently on this topic.

Tom I stand by what I said. You can have as long a term horizon as you want, but like most other long term plans we have, most peoples lives dont match up to their “horizons”. Its amazing how life intervenes. Kids, whatever. its a fortunate few that can just shell it away and never touch it. Your “horizon” hits a dead end when you have to put money into a checking account. I have never seen any investing research that deals with random withdrawls that represents real world. And boy oh boy, if life hits you hard when the market is down, you make a withdrawl and you wont ever catch up.

But thats just the start of the problem. Lets say you buy into what the brokerages and funds are selling. Buy and hold, or whatever. How do you pick from the 17k funds ? By reading some websites ? By talking to some friends ? By watching the commercials ? By selecting among the optionsyour company gives you in their plan ? Which of course was the result of a salespitch that the fund company put together to the person offering the plan to your company. Everyone is getting paid on the gravy train, except for the guy putting in the money at the end.

Wall Street has done an AMAZING job of creating conventional wisdom . “Buy andHold “is the 2nd
most misleading marketing sloganever, after the brilliant “rinse and repeat” message on every
shampoo bottle. Weas a country have fallen for it. Every message from every marketer of stocks tell
us.Young or old, if you can hold for the long term, things will work out for you.

That is total bull****. Its for suckers.

Ive traded stocks for almost twenty years now. IM good at it. When i work at it. And it takes a lot of work. Not just reading all the 10K/Qs and corporate websites and product managers, or talking to people at the outskirts of the company where management doesnt reach. It takes often knowing the market for a company’s product better than the company does. After all just because a company is public doesnt mean a thing other than someone has , and continues to make money buying and selling the stock as their own product.

If you are going to trade stocks, you just have to follow one rule and remember one thing. That rule is
always have a definite knowledge advantage about the company you are trading, and always remember that every stock transaction has a sucker, and you have to know whether its you or the person on the other side of the trade. No one buys a stock from your, or sells one to you knowing they are leaving money on the table.

The bottom line is that unless you plan on making it a full time job to do your research and put yourself in a position to have an advantage, you are going to get your ass kicked at some point by someone who does. You just have to hope that it doesnt put a big financial hurt on you when it happens
The same logic applies to funds. Funds are in the business of making money for themselves first. You 2nd.

First check what the heads of some public mutual funds are making. Someone help me out, I cant find the link right now .Was it Mario Gabelli who not only paid himself more than his fund earned for its shareholders in a year (forget the people with money in his funds), but he was paying himself from like 3 companies at the same time? Get me the links and I will update them here.

Then you should check the turnover of fund managers some day. You know where the good ones go ? To start or manage their own funds.

Then there is the portfolio turnover. How often they completely turn over the stocks in their fund. last
numbers I saw was that on average funds turnover their portfolios 85pct every year. Thats not investing. Its fund managers doing whatever they can to beat their peers, knowing that if they dont, they are out of a job. Their bosses know that if they dont beat their peers, the money flows out, and that is a HUGE problem for any fund. So many funds take chances they shouldnt, with your money. We never see any headlines for funds that close.

Why is that ? We never see any headlines for fund managers who get fired. Why ?

But even if performance sucks, rather than saying how bad it is, they pick the short stint when it wasnt so bad. orbes

did a nice job reviewing this little marketing habit of fundsand referencing some manager turnover issues at Fidelity.

As far as ETFs. Which one ? Remember, the Dow and S&P are marketing tools. They change the indexes. Look at the stocks in there today, vs what was in there in years past. You are not buying a passive investment that tracks nthe economy. You are buying the stock pickers at those respective indexes. Last time I looked, both Dow Jones and McGraw Hill are for profit companies. They want people tothink theirDJ 30 & S&P 500 indexes are
powerful indexes that can be reported daily as a reflection of market action. So they change the stocks when they think they need to. To help them with their product.

Ive said a lot of this before. The stock market
is by definition a ponzi scheme. As long as money keeps on
coming in, then there is someone to take the stocks from the sellers. If the amount of money coming in is reduced,
the stocks, indexes, et al go down. What if, for who knows whatever reason, the amount of money going into
stocks declined significantly ? Who would buy stock from the sellers. I mean goodness gracious, you could see
something disastrous happen. Like the Nasdaq dropping from 5000, to under 2000 in just a few years. Its happened
before, it can happen again.

Which is exactly why we get all these nonsensical commercials from brokerages. To keep the money coming in . I
wish someone would index the amount of money spent on marketing by mutual funds and brokerages to the Nasdaq and Dow
and see if it correlates.

Money inflows drives the business. We can get all the economic data we ever dreamed of getting, but if money
inflows declined significantly for an extended period of time, then every rule of thumb would go out the window until
money started flowing in. Yes it would flow in eventuallyas prices dropped. From big investors like me
who wouldnt have gotten hurt by a huge market decline and could come in and buy huge chunks, or companies
outright.

You ? You probably would be like Charles Ponzi’s customers. You wouldnt be able to get your money out of the fund
when it went down, and by the time you did, it would be too late. You would have been crushed.

Ive said it before,a stock that doesnt pay dividends is valued like a baseball card.
Just whatever you can sell it for. The concept that you own “your share” of the company is a joke. You are completely
at the whim of the CEO and board who will dilute you on a daily basis with stock options, then try to buy back stock
to cover it up and push up the price, rewarding the shareholders who get out, rather than those that continue to hold
the shares. Meaning you.

Have you ever seen Warren Buffet talk about buying 100 shares of anything k shares ? or does he take control of
, or purchase a material percentage of a company ?

If you have enough money to have influence , take control or buy it outright, then the stock market can
workfor you. Thats why I buystock in public companies that relate to myother business
entities. When i pick up the phone and call the CEO of a company i own shares in, they call me backvery
quickly. When I ask if there arebusiness opportunities that make sense for the company and another company of
mineto work together, I wont always get the business, but Iwill always get a meeting.If Im smart
about the investments I make, the more important returns come from the relationships with the companies than the
action of the stock.

If the best you can do is buy shares that are going to be continuously diluted, then you are merely a
sucker.There is a good chance that the shares you boughtcame fromsharesan insider who got
stock options. You just helped dilute yourself with your first share purchase.

The wealthy can make the stockmarket work for them. Individuals buying shares of stock in non dividend paying
stocks… they work for the stockmarket.

I know Ive painted a pretty bleak picture.

The stockmarket isnt going away. Would it shock me if the whole thing collapsed ? yes. it would. Its just too
engrained in our way of life in the USA. What would change my mind is if a better investment vehicle came
along.

The stockmarket used to be about investing capital in companies that came public or did secondary offerings. That
money was used to create amazing businesses and return dividends back to people who truly were investors. There
once was a day where most companies paid dividends higher than the interest rates on their bonds. Why ? Because
stocks are inherently more risky. If a company goes belly up, bondholders collect first, shareholders usually
last. People could buy and hold stocks, and get paid real cash money for being a shareholder in the company at
rates far higher than the divident yields we see today. If the company did well, the dividends went up. Investors who
held, actually got all their money back in dividends at some point and the rest was gravy. The good ole days.

But that changed when mutual funds came along and started marketing the concept of growth as a way to attract
investors.

Its not inconceivable that the old mindset could comeback. That a new market of stocks could be created where
companies didnt continuously dilute shareholders by issuing stock and options to themselves. Where earnings were
earned for the same reason they are in private companies, to not only fund growth, but also provide cash back to
investors. Now if that market existed today. Where I could buy 100 shares of stock, and even if it represented just
1/100000 of ownership in the company, I could have confidence that year after year, I would still own 1/100000th of
that company, and if that company generated earnings , I would have at least some of that money returned to me. Well
then, that wouldnt be a ponzi scheme. That would be a true market of stocks, and I would be happy to recommend to
anyone to be careful, but buying stocks in that market could be something worth considering if your appetite for risk
canhandle it.

Sorry for the long winded response Tom, but thanks for getting me going

If you put your money in safe bets like i mentioned in the last post, then you can spend that time you would
otherwise have to spend researching funds and or stocks, either with people you love, things you love to do, or in
yourself.Using those hours to be the best at whatever you love to do.Thats an investment you never
have to pay a commission on. You never get a margin call. And thereturns can be astronomical. - Cuban, 2006.
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Old 05-10-2009, 07:10 PM   #111
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by manbearpig View Post
Newb question. I own a handful (50) of shares of both GE and WFC. They were given as a wedding gift right after Christmas. As of Friday they are both right around the number we got them for so total value roughly ~2K.

That's not an insignificant amount of money for me. From reading the GE thread in here it seems most people are down on them. I know nothing about WFC.

Thoughts? Hold, sell, both?
If I was ever gifted a dividend paying stock it would take a fiscal 'emergency' before I'd sell it for the cash. You were handed free money that makes free money. Granted you have to pay taxes on the dividend...but still.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:43 AM   #112
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I definitely wouldn't sell WFC. WFC is insanely well positioned to make a ****load of money over the next few years. They have the lowest salaries in the industry for their non corporate positions, their cost of borrowing is essentially nothing, they charge super high interest rates, they have the strongest balance sheets other than maybe JPM, and they aren't going to be fully integrated with Wachovia until 2011. I have no opinion on GE, but I wouldn't sell WFC, I think it'll be a $40-50 stock in a few years easily. Warren Buffet loves them too. No opinion on GE, although Buffet took a huge position in them too. It's probably not a bad idea to follow the smart money.
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Old 05-11-2009, 09:43 AM   #113
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Thanks for all the thoughts, guys. I am just going to hold tight for now.
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Old 05-11-2009, 04:38 PM   #114
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I think GE is a good stock to have as we move out of the recession. I bought in a few weeks ago and have no plans to sell anytime soon.

Malachii - intersting info on WFC, thanks for that.
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Old 05-11-2009, 04:54 PM   #115
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I haven't read the entire thread so if this has come up already, sorry.

I am very new to trading and looking to start a small account to get my feet wet and learn some of the ins and outs. I plan on only starting out with an account of $1000. This is an amount of money that I will not mind losing (if it happens), but it is enough money to me that I will not be frivolous or capricious in investing it. By the end of the year I plan to continue reading and learning investing/financial markets and will have (if all goes according to plan and it of course never does) increased my portfolio to 15 - 20k (out of pocket, hopefully the portfolio is worth more).

I'm making my way through Arturius's reading list in his "guide to daytrading" thread, though I am still on Technical Analysis of Financial Markets. My plan is initially to "swing trade" or hold positions for 2 weeks to 2 months or so. On to my question...

Can anyone recommend a good online broker for a small fish like myself? Are the fees at any site going to be too high to do any type of investing other than buy and hold for an investment as small as $1000? (I think e-trade is like $25 a trade of something after all is said and done) Also, what about free or cheap charting services...are there any out there?

Thanks for any and all advice, try not to be too hard on me.
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Old 05-11-2009, 06:10 PM   #116
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I use Scottrade. $7/trade. I like a lot of the features on the site. Good customer service, too. Plus they have branches all over the country, I believe.
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Old 05-11-2009, 10:28 PM   #117
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Anyone care to recommend some books on the fundamentals of economics? Looking for some introductory stuff to get the basics down so that I can read some more interesting stuff.
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Old 05-12-2009, 01:04 AM   #118
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Quote:
Originally Posted by manbearpig View Post
Newb question. I own a handful (50) of shares of both GE and WFC. They were given as a wedding gift right after Christmas. As of Friday they are both right around the number we got them for so total value roughly ~2K.

That's not an insignificant amount of money for me. From reading the GE thread in here it seems most people are down on them. I know nothing about WFC.

Thoughts? Hold, sell, both?
It's kind of funny that you received shares in those companies given that Warren Buffett loves WFC and helped GE. Sounds like someone is following Buffett's moves. I would hold onto them and try to educate yourself about the markets and then in a year when you think you know what you're doing, you can look into making other decisions.
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Old 05-14-2009, 05:35 PM   #119
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by mephisto View Post
Can anyone explain to me why the stock market isn't just a Government approved ponzi scheme? I'm speaking about common shares in companies with no dividends.

Also, does anyone have a rebuttal to Mark Cuban's blog post entitled 'The stock market is for suckers':
I'd like to hear a rebuttal to that, too. Thanks for posting it, mephisto, it's interesting.
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Old 05-14-2009, 07:05 PM   #120
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Important question for askinngzz:

I was at the car dealership with my dad and my dad said he wanted a 3 year loan. They brough out the paper work with a 4 year loan on it. My dad was slightly perturbed and then he said he wanted a 3 year laon. the dealer said some stuff i dont understand and then my dad said he wanted a 3 year loan because he would end up paying less interest. Is my dad right?
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Old 05-14-2009, 07:21 PM   #121
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The shorter the loan, the less interested you pay, yes.
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Old 05-14-2009, 07:52 PM   #122
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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The shorter the loan, the less interested you pay, yes.
Well, i just wanted to make sure. I dont really know what was going on because i've never bought a car. The dealer was explaining to my dad how with a 4 year loan he would pay less interest, and then my dad looked really bewildered and he was like.. um no, no i wouldn't, are you going to give me a 3 year year loan or not?"
I just wanted to see if my dad was right. Thanks arturius.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:45 AM   #123
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Anyone care to recommend some books on the fundamentals of economics? Looking for some introductory stuff to get the basics down so that I can read some more interesting stuff.
If you're still in school, I would encourage you to major in economics. If not, then the book that actually got me first interested in economics was If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks by Peter Navarro, which has a cheesy / hucksterish title but is actually an awesome introduction to the different schools of macroeconomic thought and teaches you the fundamentals in terms of how to think about investing from a macroeconomic perspective. It's a very easy read but is also packed with knowledge.
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Old 05-15-2009, 04:52 AM   #124
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Well, i just wanted to make sure. I dont really know what was going on because i've never bought a car. The dealer was explaining to my dad how with a 4 year loan he would pay less interest, and then my dad looked really bewildered and he was like.. um no, no i wouldn't, are you going to give me a 3 year year loan or not?"
I just wanted to see if my dad was right. Thanks arturius.
It could be the rate is lower on the 4 y vs the 3 y and that net the costs will be lower. But in general and in 99% of the cases the shorter the less you pay. It could be that the dealer confused payments and interest. With a shorter term you'll pay more per month as you have to pay more towards the balance.
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Old 05-15-2009, 07:59 AM   #125
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All tax UK

All tax UK offer a low cost tax refund Corporation service that ensures you will receive back every penny you are entitled to.
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