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| Business, Finance, and Investing Making money, investing in markets, and running businesses |
09-10-2009, 08:48 PM
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#361
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journeyman
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 299
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Why are the 3 month treasury bill yield and 10 year treasury note yield such important economic/market indicators?
The majority of the articles on the economy and the markets that I read mention these benchmarks.
Now I think that because these investments are seen as low risk, a demand in appetite for these investments, which I believe lowers the yield, indicates that investors are risk averse and thus uncertain about the economic outlook.
But somehow this explanation leaves me unsatisfied, if I am right in the first place with my assesment.
I also read that lower yield on treasury notes means lower rates on mortgages. If correct, could someone please explain this to me.
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09-11-2009, 07:13 PM
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#362
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journeyman
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 273
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
I am 21 years old and have a year and a half left in school.
I have a 13 month CD worth $5K drawing interest right now and after a few years of drawing interest it is at like $5500ish. My question to you all is this: is there anything else I could be doing with this money to put myself in a position to grow?
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09-11-2009, 07:59 PM
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#363
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old hand
Join Date: May 2005
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 1,985
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by newb
Why are the 3 month treasury bill yield and 10 year treasury note yield such important economic/market indicators?
The majority of the articles on the economy and the markets that I read mention these benchmarks.
Now I think that because these investments are seen as low risk, a demand in appetite for these investments, which I believe lowers the yield, indicates that investors are risk averse and thus uncertain about the economic outlook.
But somehow this explanation leaves me unsatisfied, if I am right in the first place with my assesment.
I also read that lower yield on treasury notes means lower rates on mortgages. If correct, could someone please explain this to me.
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correctumundo
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09-12-2009, 07:36 AM
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#364
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,054
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brons
I'm not saying you shouldn't buy. I just think your reasoning why you want to buy is flawed.
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is the logic good or no? should we buy low? (thinking about buying a house. live in LA, everything is down....so buy? and ride it up?)
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09-12-2009, 08:40 AM
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#365
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 6,394
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Good job taking that post out of context.
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09-12-2009, 03:06 PM
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#366
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old hand
Join Date: May 2005
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 1,985
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poiuytr
They do it do hedge out the interest rate risk. For instance if you are trading MBS and you short similar duration treasuries you end up with a more pure mortgage basis trade. If you are trading corporates you short similar duration treasuries so that you only have the sector/credit risk of the corporates you own. It allows you to trade on a spread basis by removing one of the moving parts from the price movement.
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so by buying 10yr verizon bonds @ like 99.5 and selling 10yr tres's @ like 100-19 (random ballpark prices) we've sucessfully hedged out the interest rate variance and locked in the spread btwn the bonds initially right? How does that make you money? You're guaranteeing yourself whatever the spread is (say like 250bp) on the yield?
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09-12-2009, 03:52 PM
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#367
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: shortstacked on the bubble
Posts: 5,629
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Obviously moving average crossovers have a value, but it is a -EV to just blindly invest when 20MA crosses above the 50.
It works in lots of examples, WHEN THE STOCK IS TRENDING.
I could find some where it crosses back and forth chopping around in a range during which you get killed.
The trouble, obviously, is that you do not know at the time whether you about to jump on a sweet trend or get chop suey-ed.
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Moving average crossovers work well as both a filter and and a drill down technique. I use MAx a lot. It gives a good idea of the longer term, medium term and shorter term trends. When all timeframes point in the same direction it doesnt make sense (to me anyway) to do something that goes against that grain.
I am very short term oriented and in certain markets and specific market conditions will use MAx for either entry or exit signals using extremely fast printing constant volume bar charts. But the conditions have to be right for me to use this method.
To use something like a 50/20 MAx on a daily chart for entries and exits is suicide. But it can be useful as a filter to tell you which way you want to trade that particular market.
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09-14-2009, 07:22 PM
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#368
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old hand
Join Date: May 2005
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 1,985
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
anyone know the answer to my q?
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09-14-2009, 09:32 PM
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#369
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newbie
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 33
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by creative
so by buying 10yr verizon bonds @ like 99.5 and selling 10yr tres's @ like 100-19 (random ballpark prices) we've sucessfully hedged out the interest rate variance and locked in the spread btwn the bonds initially right? How does that make you money? You're guaranteeing yourself whatever the spread is (say like 250bp) on the yield?
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This is of course all very simplified. But here are three ways you could make money with this position.
If you plan to hold the position in a carry trade until the verizon bond matures than you are mostly correct, things such as where you can repo the verzion bond and reverse repo the treasuries will come into play and reduce your profit.
You can make money if spreads tighten.
Or you could be offing the bonds for sale to clients at a tighter level than what you bought them for and make money on the bid/ask spread and volume.
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09-15-2009, 01:29 AM
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#370
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old hand
Join Date: May 2005
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 1,985
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
poluytr--is there a book you'd recommend for credit studying? esp the type of stuff you've mentioned above?
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09-15-2009, 09:15 PM
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#371
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adept
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 922
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
hey every1, never posted in here before but have a few queries, and dont laugh at me!
im 20 years old and live in the UK. i want to buy $200 worth of penny stocks in a florida based apparel company (link), but i dont have a clue where to start.
i dont know any brokers, i dont know wtf a portfolio is, i dont know how and where to buy stock online.
the quicker the better btw
ty
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09-16-2009, 01:29 AM
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#372
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old hand
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,499
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonReremy
hey every1, never posted in here before but have a few queries, and dont laugh at me!
im 20 years old and live in the UK. i want to buy $200 worth of penny stocks in a florida based apparel company (link), but i dont have a clue where to start.
i dont know any brokers, i dont know wtf a portfolio is, i dont know how and where to buy stock online.
the quicker the better btw
ty
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ING Sharebuilder is what I used when I was buying cheap stocks.
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09-16-2009, 03:32 PM
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#373
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adept
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 922
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by pifhluk
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wont work because im from the UK, know of any other sites?
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09-21-2009, 07:19 PM
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#374
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adept
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Does Matt still like me?
Posts: 1,048
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
I've been searching and searching, but can't find any options market makers in Toronto. Anyone know of any? Also, it seems impossible to find any top-tier prop houses there as well. Is there no action in TO?
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09-21-2009, 08:29 PM
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#375
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: slinging stocks
Posts: 1,051
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivvaen
I've been searching and searching, but can't find any options market makers in Toronto. Anyone know of any? Also, it seems impossible to find any top-tier prop houses there as well. Is there no action in TO?
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Chicago is the prop-firm capital of the world with New York in second place. The lack of competition everywhere else means that those firms are more likely to be bucket shops than top-flight trading firms. Just like how if you want to build the next Google you need to be in Silicon Valley, if you want to become the next big trader you need to be in Chicago or New York.
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