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Old 09-10-2009, 08:48 PM   #361
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Why are the 3 month treasury bill yield and 10 year treasury note yield such important economic/market indicators?

The majority of the articles on the economy and the markets that I read mention these benchmarks.
Now I think that because these investments are seen as low risk, a demand in appetite for these investments, which I believe lowers the yield, indicates that investors are risk averse and thus uncertain about the economic outlook.

But somehow this explanation leaves me unsatisfied, if I am right in the first place with my assesment.

I also read that lower yield on treasury notes means lower rates on mortgages. If correct, could someone please explain this to me.
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Old 09-11-2009, 07:13 PM   #362
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I am 21 years old and have a year and a half left in school.

I have a 13 month CD worth $5K drawing interest right now and after a few years of drawing interest it is at like $5500ish. My question to you all is this: is there anything else I could be doing with this money to put myself in a position to grow?
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Old 09-11-2009, 07:59 PM   #363
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Quote:
Originally Posted by newb View Post
Why are the 3 month treasury bill yield and 10 year treasury note yield such important economic/market indicators?

The majority of the articles on the economy and the markets that I read mention these benchmarks.
Now I think that because these investments are seen as low risk, a demand in appetite for these investments, which I believe lowers the yield, indicates that investors are risk averse and thus uncertain about the economic outlook.

But somehow this explanation leaves me unsatisfied, if I am right in the first place with my assesment.

I also read that lower yield on treasury notes means lower rates on mortgages. If correct, could someone please explain this to me.

correctumundo
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Old 09-12-2009, 07:36 AM   #364
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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I'm not saying you shouldn't buy. I just think your reasoning why you want to buy is flawed.
is the logic good or no? should we buy low? (thinking about buying a house. live in LA, everything is down....so buy? and ride it up?)
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Old 09-12-2009, 08:40 AM   #365
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Good job taking that post out of context.
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Old 09-12-2009, 03:06 PM   #366
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by Poiuytr View Post
They do it do hedge out the interest rate risk. For instance if you are trading MBS and you short similar duration treasuries you end up with a more pure mortgage basis trade. If you are trading corporates you short similar duration treasuries so that you only have the sector/credit risk of the corporates you own. It allows you to trade on a spread basis by removing one of the moving parts from the price movement.


so by buying 10yr verizon bonds @ like 99.5 and selling 10yr tres's @ like 100-19 (random ballpark prices) we've sucessfully hedged out the interest rate variance and locked in the spread btwn the bonds initially right? How does that make you money? You're guaranteeing yourself whatever the spread is (say like 250bp) on the yield?
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Old 09-12-2009, 03:52 PM   #367
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Obviously moving average crossovers have a value, but it is a -EV to just blindly invest when 20MA crosses above the 50.

It works in lots of examples, WHEN THE STOCK IS TRENDING.

I could find some where it crosses back and forth chopping around in a range during which you get killed.

The trouble, obviously, is that you do not know at the time whether you about to jump on a sweet trend or get chop suey-ed.
Moving average crossovers work well as both a filter and and a drill down technique. I use MAx a lot. It gives a good idea of the longer term, medium term and shorter term trends. When all timeframes point in the same direction it doesnt make sense (to me anyway) to do something that goes against that grain.

I am very short term oriented and in certain markets and specific market conditions will use MAx for either entry or exit signals using extremely fast printing constant volume bar charts. But the conditions have to be right for me to use this method.

To use something like a 50/20 MAx on a daily chart for entries and exits is suicide. But it can be useful as a filter to tell you which way you want to trade that particular market.
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Old 09-14-2009, 07:22 PM   #368
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

anyone know the answer to my q?
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Old 09-14-2009, 09:32 PM   #369
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by creative View Post
so by buying 10yr verizon bonds @ like 99.5 and selling 10yr tres's @ like 100-19 (random ballpark prices) we've sucessfully hedged out the interest rate variance and locked in the spread btwn the bonds initially right? How does that make you money? You're guaranteeing yourself whatever the spread is (say like 250bp) on the yield?
This is of course all very simplified. But here are three ways you could make money with this position.

If you plan to hold the position in a carry trade until the verizon bond matures than you are mostly correct, things such as where you can repo the verzion bond and reverse repo the treasuries will come into play and reduce your profit.
You can make money if spreads tighten.
Or you could be offing the bonds for sale to clients at a tighter level than what you bought them for and make money on the bid/ask spread and volume.
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Old 09-15-2009, 01:29 AM   #370
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

poluytr--is there a book you'd recommend for credit studying? esp the type of stuff you've mentioned above?
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:15 PM   #371
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

hey every1, never posted in here before but have a few queries, and dont laugh at me!
im 20 years old and live in the UK. i want to buy $200 worth of penny stocks in a florida based apparel company (link), but i dont have a clue where to start.
i dont know any brokers, i dont know wtf a portfolio is, i dont know how and where to buy stock online.
the quicker the better btw
ty
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Old 09-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #372
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by JonReremy View Post
hey every1, never posted in here before but have a few queries, and dont laugh at me!
im 20 years old and live in the UK. i want to buy $200 worth of penny stocks in a florida based apparel company (link), but i dont have a clue where to start.
i dont know any brokers, i dont know wtf a portfolio is, i dont know how and where to buy stock online.
the quicker the better btw
ty
ING Sharebuilder is what I used when I was buying cheap stocks.
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Old 09-16-2009, 03:32 PM   #373
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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ING Sharebuilder is what I used when I was buying cheap stocks.
wont work because im from the UK, know of any other sites?
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Old 09-21-2009, 07:19 PM   #374
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I've been searching and searching, but can't find any options market makers in Toronto. Anyone know of any? Also, it seems impossible to find any top-tier prop houses there as well. Is there no action in TO?
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Old 09-21-2009, 08:29 PM   #375
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by ivvaen View Post
I've been searching and searching, but can't find any options market makers in Toronto. Anyone know of any? Also, it seems impossible to find any top-tier prop houses there as well. Is there no action in TO?
Chicago is the prop-firm capital of the world with New York in second place. The lack of competition everywhere else means that those firms are more likely to be bucket shops than top-flight trading firms. Just like how if you want to build the next Google you need to be in Silicon Valley, if you want to become the next big trader you need to be in Chicago or New York.
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