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Old 04-07-2009, 06:58 PM   #26
darthtrader3.1
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by AntiMatter View Post
Is this wise at my early stage?
This is a complete waste of time besides for getting experience programming. For algo systems you really probly want to start with Acrary's threads on elitetrader.com and the book Evidence Based Technical Analysis..You can at least get from that the idea of backtesting against a random variable instead of backtesting on what will end up as nothing more than data snooping and over optimization..Even then though, retail algo software is a complete joke that borders on a marketting scam.
Seykota has a website because Seykota was left in the dust 20 years ago.
Jim Simmons doesn't have a website that tells you what to do and you have to trade against him.
Really, your best bet is to forget algo trading unless you want to under take a decade long project and just forward test your brain on charts..
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Old 04-07-2009, 08:42 PM   #27
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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I've warned him and he still aggravates everyone and derails threads. He can't even write properly, people don't know what he's saying and I don't see him thinking through any posts at all. He's clearly a net negative, I've given him a chance to think about his posting but its pretty clear he's going to force my hand later, so why not draw a hard line now?
PM Performify and ask him about his ideas on moderating. You'd learn a lot.
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Old 04-07-2009, 08:58 PM   #28
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Who should I PM about making vague backhanded posts?
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Old 04-07-2009, 09:08 PM   #29
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Whom
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Old 04-07-2009, 10:59 PM   #30
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

anyone know where i can get some historical data (just closing prices fine) of the SP500, but accounting for dividends? Or just data on the dividends the SP500 has payed out (as I can get the unadjusted data from yahoo or wherever)?
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Old 04-07-2009, 11:06 PM   #31
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

google is your friend...isn't that the FIRST part of first post in this thread?!
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Old 04-07-2009, 11:13 PM   #32
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by ArturiusX View Post
Who should I PM about making vague backhanded posts?
Wait... Lemme make sure I have this in order:

1) Totalitarian mandate issued to a renob.
2) Regulars express dissatisfaction at the totalitarian moderation.
3) Moderator complains that his hand is forced.
4) I offer a solution.
5) Mod starts whining.

Okay. You should probably become a man and stop letting your petty power trips for the consistent banning. Or perhaps actually enforce the policies you've attempted to enact (Gold Bug megathread?!?). Whatever. The moderation in this forum is pretty lol ranging from "I don't really want to do mod stuff, but I is green." to "I am the amalgam of Hitler's Hand/Stalin's Fist." Maybe try ungreening and letting ahnuld do it? He seems to do a decent enough job.
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Old 04-07-2009, 11:41 PM   #33
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I have received exactly zero PMs about any of my modding, so I don't know, none of the regulars seem to mind. The trial of the gold bug thread to stop forum wars seems to be working. How many people have I banned under my totalitarian regime thremp? Give me a figure, these power trips must be very constant to get you so angry about them.

This forum is loosely moderated but I do want to keep threads on topic because it keeps everything informative. Investing threads that derail into threads about gold is bad. 10 threads about USD/AUD thread is bad. People not searching and expanding on existing threads is bad. People starting threads for something that could be googled is bad.

It seems really simple to me what I'm trying to do. I don't want to ban anyone. bkkdude trolled a few legitimate threads and was pissing off regulars. Since he can't type properly, no one knew what the hell he was saying, and it became clear he just wants to hear himself talk. So he can fix his posting and PM me about posting here again, if he likes. The fact that he hasn't probably tells you how much he cares about this forum: not much. The fact that no ones pmed me about it tells you how much they care he's not posting: not much.

I think you should pause, take a deep breath, and realise that there's not very much modding going on other than standard cleaning up. Which seems to be what everyone wants.
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Old 04-08-2009, 02:35 AM   #34
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Perhaps I'm losing track of the various manifestations of meditate, which would explain the reason for that (along with some narrative fallacy and survivorship bias and those silly things). Your post seems very reasonable and like you spent much more time on it than the previous ones.
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Old 04-08-2009, 02:56 AM   #35
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I wonder why I haven't been able to find some kind of recent "investing poker money for idiots" thread.

my money is currently sitting in an ING Direct savings account which yields a meager 1.85%. they also have GICs but the rates are down to something like 3.15% for a 5 year GIC, which is a bit of a joke. is there a better, simple way to get a 3%+ rate? the few times i looked, bonds didnt seem too impressive.

i only have about 50k in savings for now (which im adding 5k per month to) so i dont want to bother with some very complicated way to invest it. are those index funds on the stock market something i should consider looking into?
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Old 04-08-2009, 05:32 AM   #36
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I'm looking to get a job in a prop firm when i finish my masters. discretionary trading if possible. i ve read 3/4 book and am starting to paper trade at the moment + keeping a trading journal.

what are the things i should evaluate when looking at different firms?
Any advice on getting past the interview process?
(do i mention poker? im a NL400 HU Winner)

Cheers
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Old 04-08-2009, 06:03 AM   #37
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by darthtrader3.1 View Post
This is a complete waste of time besides for getting experience programming. For algo systems you really probly want to start with Acrary's threads on elitetrader.com and the book Evidence Based Technical Analysis..You can at least get from that the idea of backtesting against a random variable instead of backtesting on what will end up as nothing more than data snooping and over optimization..Even then though, retail algo software is a complete joke that borders on a marketting scam.
Seykota has a website because Seykota was left in the dust 20 years ago.
Jim Simmons doesn't have a website that tells you what to do and you have to trade against him.
Really, your best bet is to forget algo trading unless you want to under take a decade long project and just forward test your brain on charts..
Sorry, I think my post was a bit confusing. I'm not trying to program trade, although I do want some sort of "system" in place for discipline etc.

I'm quite aware of the dangers of curve-fitting, having spent my previous job trying to convince the field of psychiatric genetics that many of the findings were of a similar problem (publication bias when analysing huuuge datasets). I failed, sigh. Hopefully I can do better with trading

Basically I'm trying to ask this: For a newbie, how much should you just stick with a basic plan (think basic trend following with fundemental filters), and how much should you trust your judgement?

I know its an open ended question, just looking for some general guidance I guess....
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Old 04-08-2009, 12:01 PM   #38
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by ArturiusX View Post
This link is 3 years old? Try something more modern:

http://www.marketsci.com/recent.html
Does it matter how old it is if it still works?

Quote:
Originally Posted by darthtrader3.1 View Post
This is a complete waste of time besides for getting experience programming. For algo systems you really probly want to start with Acrary's threads on elitetrader.com and the book Evidence Based Technical Analysis..You can at least get from that the idea of backtesting against a random variable instead of backtesting on what will end up as nothing more than data snooping and over optimization..Even then though, retail algo software is a complete joke that borders on a marketting scam.
Seykota has a website because Seykota was left in the dust 20 years ago.
Jim Simmons doesn't have a website that tells you what to do and you have to trade against him.
Really, your best bet is to forget algo trading unless you want to under take a decade long project and just forward test your brain on charts..
Do you have any proof of this? I don't have proof either way, but I've never seen any kind of reference to him going bust or not making money trading anymore. What does having a website have to do with being left in the dust? If I was a successful brain surgeon and decided to create a website about brain surgery, would you assume I lost my skills as a brain surgeon?
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Old 04-08-2009, 01:05 PM   #39
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

In regards to index funds -

If I am including these as a decent portion of my retirement portfolio, does it matter when I make my initial purchase if I leave it there for ~30 years? My plan is to use a simple dollar cost averaging program after my initial investment.

I have heard differing opinions on this matter...
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Old 04-08-2009, 01:18 PM   #40
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Awesome thread. Well, in theory at least. Awesome thread idea I should say.
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Old 04-08-2009, 02:10 PM   #41
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Hey guys,

Quick question. Its almost April 15th, so I only have a few days to contribute to my 2008 Roth IRA.

I opened my Roth with Vanguard last year and made the $4K contribution into VEIEX (which lost 50%), not a big deal. My plan for this year is to put $1K into VEIEX (if vanguard allows this), and $4K into VFINX.

My question is, is there a better Vanguard index fund then VFINX for me to put my money in? There is a 4K minimum for most vanguard funds. If I understand correctly, VFINX is the only vanguard index fund that follows the S&P, which is what I'm trying to get into.

Thank you!
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Old 04-08-2009, 05:36 PM   #42
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Does it matter how old it is if it still works?
There's been huge advancements in developing mechanical systems in the last 4 years, out of the box packages now wield considerable power and ideas we've learned in the past 3 years about volatility and risk are very valuable lessons.

I mean, whatever, but if I was designing a mech system I'd try to be cutting edge.
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Old 04-08-2009, 06:29 PM   #43
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

My company will soon offer a Roth 401(k). Currently, I max out both my Roth IRA and my 401(k). I'll be 25 next week. Should I plan to use the Roth 401(k) option once it is available?

I understand that I should use the Roth 401(k) option if I expect that my current tax bracket is lower than the tax bracket I expect to be in once I start taking distributions, but how do I have any idea what my tax bracket is going to be in 50 years?

Contributing $15,500 post-tax dollars versus $15,500 pre-tax dollars means I'll actually get paid about ~$5K less per year, right? Would it be better to contribute $15500 pre-tax dollars or ~$10K post-tax dollars?

Your advice is appreciated.

D.
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Old 04-08-2009, 08:31 PM   #44
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

Not sure if ******* got his question answered in his locked thread, but Harrah's Entertainment is a privately held corporation. HET shares stopped trading and was delisted about a year ago. It is also now known as Caesar's Entertainment.
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Old 04-08-2009, 09:01 PM   #45
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by dlgilbert4 View Post
My company will soon offer a Roth 401(k). Currently, I max out both my Roth IRA and my 401(k). I'll be 25 next week. Should I plan to use the Roth 401(k) option once it is available?

I understand that I should use the Roth 401(k) option if I expect that my current tax bracket is lower than the tax bracket I expect to be in once I start taking distributions, but how do I have any idea what my tax bracket is going to be in 50 years?

Contributing $15,500 post-tax dollars versus $15,500 pre-tax dollars means I'll actually get paid about ~$5K less per year, right? Would it be better to contribute $15500 pre-tax dollars or ~$10K post-tax dollars?

Your advice is appreciated.

D.
You figure out how much you want to withdraw from your retirement funds each year...and there you go. You get to decide what tax bracket to be in (kinda).
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:15 AM   #46
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by durkadurka33 View Post
google is your friend...isn't that the FIRST part of first post in this thread?!
all I could find was daily data back to 2006 after searching for quite a while, I doubt a simple search is going to find it for me
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:49 AM   #47
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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all I could find was daily data back to 2006 after searching for quite a while, I doubt a simple search is going to find it for me
SIGH!!

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...ile/spearn.htm

I used: historical sp 500 with dividends
as my search string, FOURTH link down...come on...tell me that wasn't simple?
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Old 04-09-2009, 01:05 AM   #48
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

I have a technical question about exactly where the shares come from for short selling. I get the rough idea of shorting, just not the specifics of the transactions.

Person A owns 100 shares of stock x.
Person B wants to short stock x. The stock is currently at $1.00/share.
Person B "borrows" and sells 100 shares of stock to Person C.

Does Person C pay Person B $100? Does Person B have to pay person A for the shares? Do they simply enter a contract where Person B pays Person A now, and then must return the shares in several days/weeks, and then get $ back for them?

Let's say I'm person A. Where do I go if I want to find such contracts, where I can loan stock to people for shorting? What types of people do this, and for what purpose?

Finally, let's say the company issues a dividend during the time the stock is shorted. Who gets the dividend? Person A, who is "loaning" the stock, or Person C, who "bought" the stock from Person B? Since Person B owns an essentially negative amount of shares, is he somehow liable for some sort of negative dividend?

Thanks.
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Old 04-09-2009, 01:14 AM   #49
Huck Cheever
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by durkadurka33 View Post
SIGH!!

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...ile/spearn.htm

I used: historical sp 500 with dividends
as my search string, FOURTH link down...come on...tell me that wasn't simple?
ty, but I was looking for daily data
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Old 04-09-2009, 01:31 AM   #50
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Re: General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

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Originally Posted by calcbandit View Post
I have a technical question about exactly where the shares come from for short selling. I get the rough idea of shorting, just not the specifics of the transactions.

Person A owns 100 shares of stock x.
Person B wants to short stock x. The stock is currently at $1.00/share.
Person B "borrows" and sells 100 shares of stock to Person C.

Does Person C pay Person B $100? Does Person B have to pay person A for the shares? Do they simply enter a contract where Person B pays Person A now, and then must return the shares in several days/weeks, and then get $ back for them?

Let's say I'm person A. Where do I go if I want to find such contracts, where I can loan stock to people for shorting? What types of people do this, and for what purpose?

Finally, let's say the company issues a dividend during the time the stock is shorted. Who gets the dividend? Person A, who is "loaning" the stock, or Person C, who "bought" the stock from Person B? Since Person B owns an essentially negative amount of shares, is he somehow liable for some sort of negative dividend?

Thanks.

In legal short sales any stock that the broker is holding for someone else that is on margin are available for shorting. When you're short a stock, you receive all proceeds of a sale as if you had owned the stock originally. Your account will show up as having a negative value for the amount of shares you shorted.

When a dividend is paid the current debtor (the short seller) must pay the dividend out of cash in their account.
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