Super great post as usual.

Just to reiterate:

#1 - Absolutely maximize the match first.
#2 - Maximize the 401k deferrals with Traditional contributions ($18k).
#3 - Maximize Roth IRA contribution (you make too much money for traditional).

#4 - Live cheap for a year or two and do the above PLUS pay off student debt, assuming you don't live somewhere where living costs are insane.

You'll be so far ahead of the game if you get in the habit of #1-3 it will be silly.

In terms of what to buy, feel free to post what's available in your 401k.

At your age/income and assuming you are risk tolerant, I'd definitely be around 100% equity. Split somewhere near 50/50 between US/Intl...and strongly consider a specific allocation to emerging markets in your Intl exposure.

Student loans are a hair under 7% and I was thinking of trying to finish them as within the year. Thanks for the responses. I'll look at those resources and post about my options when I get them.

7% guaranteed return. I'd take that any day.

Live well below your means. Solid cashflow and financial security are worth SO much.

What is the best broker? Im looking mostly for reputation (nothing shady) and low fees.

I am looking to index the S&P 500 (could be an ETF or a fund, whatever the cheapest, so probably an ETF). I don't mind gambling, since I am already long in BTC, so trying to diversify a little.

Ameritrade is not available for my country. I think my best option is tradeking.

Any recommendations? Thanks!

It seems like this thread has been recommending investing the equity part of portfolios 50% in the US and 50% in international for a while (or something close to an even split). How has that worked out and why should someone looking for advice ITT continue to do it?

https://www.americancentury.com/cont...odic_Table.pdf

You answered the first part of my question which is that international has gotten smoked by the US market in the past 9 years. However, my second question hasn't been answered. What makes you all think international can reverse this 9 year beat down?

In most cases paying a professional to manage these people's money would have been way better than them listening to a bunch of randoms from the Internet. That is very surprising. But hey at least we saved them .7% in fees!

Whenever I see people recommend 50% international I think of the meme (or whatever it is) that suggests the probability of a particular event occurring is 50% if there are only two potential outcomes despite one event being far more likely than the other.

I tend to think 50% is high myself. 30% is enough to reduce volatility:

"In a March 2012 research report, Vanguard reviewed historical results and found for investors who have equity targets of at least 60% of the total portfolio, that an allocation of the stock portion of your portfolio of between 30-40% international stocks provided the most benefit as far as reducing volatility."

The Vanguard target retirement date funds are ~ 35% international equity.

Many of the biggest US companies derive a lot of their revenue from outside the US, which also leads me to lower my international allocation lower then would be suggested by a pure market cap allocation (45% US, 55% international).

The fact that international has underperformed the US market the last 9 years is not really a reason to eliminate international from your asset allocation. We diversify for a reason, to smooth returns and (hopefully) reduce risk. If we want max returns, we should just go %100 US small cap and be done with it, right? As the sector rotation chart:
https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

shows, you never know which asset class is going to out perform. Spread it out and stick with it.

Edit: Just noticed Brian also linked the annual returns by sector.
"The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes (stocks vs. bonds), investment styles (growth vs. value), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. non-U.S.). The Table highlights the uncertainty inherent in all capital markets. Rankings change every year."

He actually answered both parts of your question. Eventually returns tend to normalize. There's obviously no guarantee of that...but if you look at International and Emerging Market P/E's, they are much more attractive than US P/E's. Eventually (and eventually could be a long run...look at how flat EM has been for years) things will tend to normalize.

I personally just rebalanced and shifted even heavier to International...I'm more like 40% US / 60% Intl now.

What are some good international ETFs to buy for those of us who have no clue how to pick these things?

Vanguard options:

VXUS = Total International, including developed & emerging markets. Simple.

Other major options (which are what I personally use):
VEA = Developed Markets.
VWO = Emerging Markets.
VSS = International Small Cap.

Schwab, iShares, etc. also have good options.

If you believed the Dow (or the S&P if you couldn't get the Dow) is going to be up over 15% this year (or some other future year) and wanted to risk $5k-$10k how would you go about maximizing EV? Options? Sportsbook that has odds on how much the market would be up?

This is for a friend - not sure what year he believes this will happen but let's assume it is 2017.

You didn't give us the information necessary to calculate an ev

Sorry for not being more clear. I don't need an EV calculation. I am looking for the best way HOW he can bet that the DOW will be up a lot more than most predictions.

Can't he just buy a leveraged ETF?

Yeah, I know there are ETFs that attempt to get 3x a benchmark which is a great starting point. Anyone know of a way to get better than triple the exposure of the index? Maybe a 10x ETF or if a reputable sports betting site will pay 7-1 (throwing out random numbers now) of the December 31st close is greater than a 15% gain? Or are options his best shot at this?

Keep in mind this is a small part of his portfolio and he's okay to lose 100% of it. Because of this fact I don't think and ETF is best - surely he can find a better return whatever he finds goes to $0 if the index return is under 15%.

Long out of the money SPY calls are the most leveraged bet he can make due to the small dollar amount of the wager he would like to make.

Leveraged ETFs are a bad idea on a year-long bet.

How much would he have to bet to get a better option than SPY calls and what is this other options?

Thanks man, much appreciated.

There is not really a better option, but he could purchase e-mini SP500 European-style futures options (not the same as e-mini SP500 futures) with an end-of-month settlement of December 2017 for whatever amount they happen to be going for on the day he buys them at the strike price he chooses.

He'd need to use google to find an appropriate broker and pricing of the options (and commissions) along with some other mumbo-jumbo about receiving and immediately selling the future(s) he'd receive if he were correct

TBQH, the word "better" in your question is making me regret answering your question. Might as well have been, "a friend of mine thinks that the next roulette number will be greater than 30. What are his best options for betting this?" Generally, if someone is not knowledgeable about how to make a bet, they don't have the requisite knowledge of whether it is a good bet to make.

Thanks for the help Brian.

I saw a list of a lot of financial firm's and their 2017 market predictions. I was surprised to see how low most were. I think the average was about 4.5%.

Maybe i'm missing something here, but why is GNC dropping so much. I'm not fully versed in everything but, from what i understand, these numbers should be really good, right?
EPS (TTM) 9/30/2016 | 2.65
P/E Ratio 9/30/2016 | 3.5

Is it massively undervalued right now or am I crazy?
Seems to have made profit every quarter for past 2 years yet the stock has went from almost $45 to $9 now
What am i missing?

They sell products that are basically commodities using a huge overhead business model. No difference than a B&M record store imo.

I took only a quick look, but GNC revenue has pretty much been flat and earnings have slightly declined the last 3 years. Unless you think they can start growing revenue and earnings again, they may not be as big a bargain as it appears.